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351. Is There an Islamist Alternative in Egypt?

Author:
Daniela Pioppi
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
It is a common place in the literature that the Muslim Brotherhood (jama'a al-ikhwan al-muslimin) is - after its re-emergence on the political scene back in the seventies - the main (if not the only) real, organised and mass-based opposition force in Egypt. Events in Egypt in January 2011 have recast attention on this question. This paper aims to evaluate, inasmuch as it is possible, the state of health of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) today, after forty years of coexistence with the Egyptian (neo)-authoritarian regime. Has the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood represented a real alternative to the incumbent regime? Or it is more correct to speak today in terms of an almost 'functional' opposition, tamed by recurring political repression and limited freedom of action? To what extent has the Muslim Brotherhood been able to shape or at least to influence the Egyptian political and social agenda, both with respect to the regime and to other opposition forces?
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

352. The Cyprus Peace Process Since March 2008: Short History, State of the Art and What is Next in Store

Author:
Luigi Napolitano
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The ongoing peace process in Cyprus, started in March 2008, is still work in progress, which has not yet reached the point of no return. All negotiating matters have been explored, classified and discussed. Some of them have been negotiated in depth and a few agreements have even been reached. But most of the knots to reach a comprehensive settlement are yet to be untied. A solution to governance matters is in sight, whereas a compromise on the all important question of property is still elusive. The UNSG Ban Ki-moon will meet the leaders of the two Cypriot communities in Geneva on January 26th to take stock of the outstanding problems and of the leaders' plans to solve them. In reconstructing and analysing the main developments, this article strives to keep equal distance from the contending sides.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Europe and Cyprus

353. The Tunisian Revolution: An Opportunity for Democratic Transition

Author:
Nathalie Tocci, Rym Ayadi, Maria Cristina Paciello, and Silvia Colombo
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Owing to its macroeconomic achievements, for decades Tunisia projected an image of stability to the world and distinguished itself from other Arab countries for its progress in the areas of economic growth, health, education and women's rights. This widely held view of apparent stability was shattered on January 14, when President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali fled the country after high levels of unemployment and inequalities resulted in widespread chaos and social unrest. Events in Tunisia raise sharp questions regarding the country's current situation and its future prospects and, more generally, the often taken-forgranted sustainability of many regimes of the Middle East and the policies of the European Union towards the region.
Topic:
Democratization and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Europe, Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

354. Confidence-building in Tunisia after the Popular Uprising: Strategies and Dilemmas of the Interim Government

Author:
Jean-Pierre Cassarino
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since the fall of Ben Ali on 14th January 2011, Tunisia has been going through a process of transformation and reconfiguration of the manifold relationships between the state and society. So far, a series of legal amendments and policy provisions have been considered to respond to immediate political demands in the run-up to the next elections. However, the numerous policy steps that have been achieved so far should not conceal resilient challenges pertaining, among others, to the structure of the economy and to its capacity to tackle youth unemployment, poverty in depressed areas, unfair competition, and corruption. The interim government will need to address these deeper challenges lest its credibility be jeopardised and the overall reform process compromised.
Topic:
Democratization and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

355. The Italian Foreign Ministry on the way of reform

Author:
Raffaello Matarazzo
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Italian government recently approved a reform of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) which should take effect by the summer of this year . By bringing the structure of the MFA into line with those of Italy's principal European partners, the reform envisages: A reduction from 13 to 8 in the number of Directorates General (DGs). These will no longer be divided by geographical region but by main subject area; The creation of a stable, structured relationship between the MFA and the Ministry for Economic and Financial Affairs (MEF); The creation of “ambassador-managers” who will be called to manage the budgets of Italy's missions abroad in an increasingly autonomous and entrepreneurial manner.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

356. Dynamics and evolution of the EU-Egypt relationship within the ENP framework

Author:
Michele Comelli
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Egypt, like the other Southern Mediterranean (SM) countries, was more of a recipient than a co-initiator of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) launched by the European Union (EU) in 2003. In fact, while being extended also to SM countries, the ENP was mainly intended for the EU's Eastern neighbours (Comelli, 2005). At that time, relations between the EU and Egypt were mostly conducted within the framework of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (Barcelona Process, launched in November 1995), and the related Euro-Mediterranean Association Agreement (AA), signed on 25 June 2001, had not yet entered into force.
Topic:
Disaster Relief
Political Geography:
Europe and Egypt

357. The New Turkish Foreign Policy And The Future Of Turkey-Eu Relations

Author:
Emiliano Alessandri
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The article refutes the often-heard argument that Ankara's recent 'activism' in the Middle East indicates that Turkey is 'drifting away from the West'. Turkey's improving relations with its neighbors (not only in the Middle East), are mainly a result of the end of the Cold War and of domestic developments which have 'unlocked' Turkey, transforming it into a more open and democratic country with an even greater stake in EU membership. At the same time, the many international and domestic changes that have occurred since Turkey was granted candidate status call for a 're-foundation' of the Turkey-EU relationship. Lacking the latter, the future of Turkey-EU relations will indeed remain uncertain.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

358. The Baffling Short-sightedness in the EU-Turkey-Cyprus Triangle

Author:
Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Diehard believers in Turkey's European future had, for a brief moment, hung their hopes on the European Parliament (EP) as the key to unlocking the poisonous stalemate in Turkey's ailing accession process. The glimmer of light had come with the Lisbon Treaty, which could have been used to unblock the stalemate over the Direct Trade Regulation (DTR) between the EU and northern Cyprus by granting a voice to the EP on the matter. Breaking the stalemate would not have magically removed all obstacles to Turkey's protracted accession process. But it would have breathed new life and instilled a dose of much-needed optimism in the troubled relations between Turkey and the Union. Alas, that opportunity has been lost and, with it, the short-term hope of a rosier future for Cyprus, Turkey and the EU as a whole.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Lisbon, and Cyprus

359. Betting on Perseverance Why the Double Track Approach is Still the Best Way to Deal with the Iranian Nuclear Conundrum

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The standoff over Iran's nuclear programme, suspected of harbouring secret military ends, is widely considered a major flashpoint. A nuclear Iran – as the argument goes – would dramatically alter the regional balance in the Gulf, providing the Islamic Republic with a formidable deterrent against external aggression, while augmenting its ability to exert influence on its neighbours and eliminating the strategic advantage of its rival Israel, the only nuclear-armed state in the Middle East. An Iranian bomb could also trigger a regional nuclear arms race since such countries as Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, might feel compelled to emulate Iran. This would in turn result in the eventual collapse of the international nuclear non-proliferation regime based on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Given the stakes, it comes as no surprise that curbing Iran's nuclear programme has rapidly become a foreign policy priority for western powers, Israel, and the majority of Arab states, which have a history of rivalry with and mistrust of Persian and Shia-dominated Iran.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt

360. The Azerbaijan-Russia-Turkey Energy Triangle and its Impact on the Future of Nagorno-Karabakh

Author:
Nona Mikhelidze
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Caucasian-Caspian region has become a stage for the collision of opposing foreign security and energy policies. After 16 years of a very fragile ceasefire, the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh continues to depend not only on the attitudes of the conflict parties, but also and perhaps even more on the re-organization of the region at the political, security and energy levels. Three main developments can affect the prospects for conflict resolution in Karabakh: the parties' growing frustration with the OSCE Minsk-Group mediation; the US-brokered Turkish-Armenian rapprochement and the deterioration in US-Azeri relations; and finally, Russia's resurgence in the region. These three inter-related factors could result in a new regional scenario marked by the emergence of an energy triangle between Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey, which in turn could impact on the destiny of Nagorno- Karabakh.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Energy Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Turkey, Soviet Union, Armenia, and Azerbaijan