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1. Turmoil in South America and the Impact on Energy Markets

Author:
Lisa Viscidi
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
2019 has been marked by widespread uprisings throughout Latin America. In the last few months, protests have erupted in Bolivia, Ecuador, and Colombia, while Argentina elected a new leader, Bolivia’s president resigned following growing tensions with his political opponents and the military, and Peru’s leader is facing a political crisis. Largely fuelled by anger over graft, economic disparity, and the rising cost of living, the resulting social unrest has led to uncertainty over the energy sector outlook. Continued political and social turbulence will likely contribute to stagnant oil and gas production growth in these countries. Conversely, Brazil and Guyana are on track to become the region’s largest oil producers. In Brazil, pre-salt reserves have been attracting foreign investment, although further market-friendly reforms will need to be made to sustain development. Guyana, for its part, is in line to become the region’s newest petrostate and will see explosive economic growth in the coming years. Despite its large reserves, Venezuela is excluded from this study because the country’s political and economic turmoil, coupled with US sanctions, make any increase in investment highly unlikely in the short term. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, December 2019.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and Domestic politics
Political Geography:
South America and Latin America

2. Financing Energy Access in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Nicola Bilotta and Lorenzo Colantoni
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The electrification of Sub-Saharan Africa has traditionally suffered from a lack of adequate investments, given the scarcity of domestic funds and the higher regional risk perceived by foreign investors. And yet, electrification of the continent has accelerated lately, driven by innovative financing instruments that fit the African framework. Such tools as aggregation, securitization and guarantee instruments reduce risk premiums, thus increasing the attractiveness of the sector and making it easier for international institutions to provide back-up funding for private, local and decentralized projects. Critical in this regard has been Africa’s FinTech system, which enables forms of mobile payment and micro-credit access, resulting in innovative business models. Such sets of tools will be then fundamental to maintaining the current trends and, eventually, reach the long-awaited universal access to energy for those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, December 2018.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Foreign Direct Investment, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

3. The Evolution of Energy Fluxes and Cooperation Models in the Middle East

Author:
Robin Mills
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Despite its dominance as the world’s key exporting region of hydrocarbons, energy connectivity within the Middle East, in the form of cross-border oil and gas pipelines, electricity grids and related institutions, is lagging. There has been limited progress in the Eastern Mediterranean area and with Turkey. But so far unfavourable commercial conditions, persisting subsidies, and regional political suspicions and disputes, have hampered progress. Key changes in the world energy market – a period of lower oil prices, with the expansion of US shale production, the globalisation of natural gas trade, the rise of renewable energy, and growing action on climate change – should encourage more intra-regional links. To realise the prize of 25 billion to more than 100 billion US dollars of savings available from greater energy trade, regional states will have to liberalise energy markets, establish multilateral institutional frameworks, and make the most of support from international energy corporations and influential political players, notably the US, China, EU and Russia. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, December 2018.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Middle East and Gulf Nations

4. Turkey's Potential Role in the Emerging South-Eastern Mediterranean Energy Corridor

Author:
Elif Burcu Günaydin
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
South-Eastern Mediterranean gas findings have raised much interest in recent years. Even though the estimated quantity of reserves is not globally significant, it is enough to be a regional game changer, promising a considerable amount of gas surplus to be exported. The main export route and potential customers are still being debated. Turkey, with its growing gas consumption, geographical location and existing pipeline system, is considered to be the most feasible option both as a customer and a transport route. Nevertheless, the fact that Israel and Cyprus, with whom Turkey had difficult relations, are the first two explorers of significant resources complicates considerably the situation. Optimistically, the reserves may lead to a solution to the Cyprus conflict and restore diplomatic ties between Israel and Turkey. However, energy resources are known to be a double-edged sword that can lead to collaboration but also to conflict. Either way, gas production will find its way to the markets. It will be up to regional actors to decide whether this way will be paved via interim agreements or via a permanent settlement that could initiate regional energy cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

5. Turkey's Energy Strategy and its Role in the EU's Southern Gas Corridor

Author:
Erkan Erdogdu
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) is a European Commission initiative aimed at facilitating the diversification of the routes and sources of gas imported into Europe. This paper is devoted to the analysis of Turkey's role in this initiative. Following a summary of the current economic and energy situation in Turkey, the paper presents recent developments in the SGC and an analysis of Turkey's role in the EU's SGC vision. It concludes that although the newly-built infrastructure within the SGC framework will probably serve Azerbaijani and Turkish interests first in their future relations with the EU, rather than the other way round, as had been initially hoped by the EU, it still addresses the EU's basic strategic interests, namely, the diversification of gas supply routes and suppliers.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, Asia, and Netherlands

6. Can South-Eastern Mediterranean Gas be a Supply for the EU?

Author:
Elif Burcu Günaydın
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
South-Eastern Mediterranean gas fields are still under exploration and development. Meanwhile, the question of which route or routes such gas would take into the global markets remains unanswered. The various possible routes appear to be problematic either politically or financially, leaving development stifled. However, with the crisis between Russia and Ukraine deepening Europe's interest in diversification of supplies, and with gas field owners and developers eager to monetise the resources, Eastern Mediterranean gas could become a potential source for the European Union. This paper tries to answer whether the South-Eastern Mediterranean resources can be regarded as a considerable supply for Europe and, if so, what are the alternative routes that would benefit all the parties involved.
Topic:
Energy Policy and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Israel, and Cyprus

7. Thinking Beyond TAP: Turkey's Role in the Southern Energy Corridor

Author:
Fatih Özgür Yeni
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Energy security is one of the hot topics on the European energy agenda. The EU's Southern Energy Corridor initiative is an attempt to reduce dependence on Russian supplies by tapping into Caspian and Middle-Eastern natural gas resources. Turkey, who aspires to be a regional energy hub, has emerged as the key country in the Southern Corridor. Although the TAP project in its current state satisfies neither Turkey's energy hub ambitions nor the EU's resource diversification efforts, it may serve as the first building block of the Southern Corridor. There are promising developments in the region that can increase volumes and add new routes to the initiative. Private companies have already shown their interest in developing a pipeline infrastructure for possible South-East Mediterranean and Northern Iraq natural gas exports but complex geopolitical issues pose the greatest threat to the way ahead. Thanks to its unique location, Turkey is destined to be one of the key players in the Southern Corridor. The convergence of Turkey's energy hub ambitions and the EU's energy security objectives present mutual gains, but also demand sustained collaboration between the two in light of several technical, legal and political hurdles.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

8. The Management and Use of Natural Resources and their Potential for Economic and Social Development in the Mediterranean

Author:
Vanessa Ushie
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In the framework of the IAI-OCP Policy Center project this paper offers a conceptual framework to examine natural resource management in Turkey, Morocco and Italy and its implications for social and economic development. It recognizes the multiplicity of actors involved in natural resource management at the local, national and global level. It then proceeds by 1) advancing a definition of natural resources to be used in the context of this project; 2) highlighting relevant emerging issues in the empirical debates on natural resource management within economics and politics; 3) developing a series of indicators aimed at assessing the dimensions of the management and use of natural resources. In general, this conceptual framework adopts a flexible and plural approach that reflects the multidisciplinary nature of natural resource management, and recognizes the importance of country-specific factors in the relationship between natural resource management and socio-economic development.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Natural Resources, and Sociology
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, North Africa, Italy, and Morocco

9. Energy and Politics: Behind the Scenes of the Nabucco-TAP Competition

Author:
Nicolò Sartori
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The European Union launched the Southern Gas Corridor initiative with the twofold aim of strengthening the diversification of Europe's gas sources and transportation routes, and reducing the role of upstreamers in the European gas market. The clear preference expressed by the European Commission - the corridor's mastermind - for Nabucco was expected to weigh in heavily, allowing the EU-backed project to easily win the competition. However, other factors, beyond political support, ended up tilting the balance decisively in favour of Nabucco West's final rival, the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). These do not include only the technical and commercial criteria set out by the Shah Deniz II consortium, but also more mundane considerations. Nabucco West' s complex organizational and decision-making procedures, the attractiveness of the exemption from Third Party Access (TPA) granted by the EU to TAP, and SOCAR's specific interest in the Greek market also influenced the consortium's final decision. An analysis of the Southern Gas Corridor competition suggests that when it comes to energy, political support and institutional involvement do not always represent the decisive element, and may be counterproductive at times.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Europe

10. The European Commission's Policy Towards the Southern Gas Corridor: Between National Interests and Economic Fundamentals

Author:
Nicolò Sartori
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The European Union launched the ambitious Southern Gas Corridor initiative with the goal of enhancing the security of its energy supply. The corridor - a virtual transit route running from the gas-rich Caspian basin to the EU while bypassing Russian soil - is meant to increase diversification of the EU's supplier and transit countries. While various projects have been proposed to give life to the corridor, the European Commission has given particular support to the realisation of Nabucco, a 3,893km pipeline running from Turkey to the European gas hub of Baumgarten in Austria, via Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary. The Commission's choice is, however, flawed in several respects, as it fails to take account of key factors, such as the diverging, and sometimes conflicting, interests of individual EU member states, the geopolitical challenges of the Caspian basin, and the commercial constraints on Nabucco. This short-sighted approach has hindered the efficient development of the Southern Gas Corridor and weakened the EU's energy policy.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Austria