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331. Hostage to Fortune? 'Downpayments' and the Future of the Doha Round

Author:
Simon J. Evenett
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Having recognised that the completion of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations during 2011 is infeasible, governments and the WTO Director-General are exploring whether a 'downpayment' on the Round could be negotiated before the December 2011 WTO Ministerial Conference. The initial indications are not promising. Worse, as argued here, a downpayment coupled with a retroactive revocation clause are unlikely on their own to change the politics of trade policy in the major trading nations. This makes the signing of the final deal no easier unless something alters the calculus of senior government leaders and establishes a credible end game for the negotiation.
Topic:
World Trade Organization

332. The Global Status of the Nuclear Industry and its Opportunities for Expansion

Author:
Antony Froggatt and Mycle Schneider
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Three factors - meeting climate change objectives, dwindling conventional fossil fuel reserves and rapidly growing energy demand from emerging economies - require the rapid transformation of the global energy industry. Within this context, nuclear power is being promoted in new countries and regions of the world. However, even prior to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami and subsequent nuclear crisis at Fukushima, the global expansion of nuclear power was occurring in a handful of countries only and globally reactor numbers were falling. While it is too early to make accurate forecasts of the long-term impact of Fukushima, it is clear that most countries are reviewing from a safety and/or policy perspective their existing and future programmes. The impact that these will have on future reactor orders will be dependent not only on the engineering and operational recommendations, but also on the economic and financial viability of the non-fossil fuel alternatives.
Political Geography:
Japan

333. Energy Interests of the 'Great Powers' in Central Asia: Cooperation or Conflict?

Author:
Shamil Midkhatovich Yenikeyeff
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The geographic proximity of Central Asia to Russia, China, the Caucasus and the Caspian region, as well as to the Middle East, makes this oil and gas-producing region a crucial and ever-developing player in regional and global energy markets. The method by which Central Asian producers choose to develop their hydrocarbon resources and export infrastructure will have significant implications for the plans for diversification of oil and gas supplies of Europe, China and India, as well as for Russia's energy exports to Europe. It is still too early to tell whether the economic and political incentives are strong enough to promote cooperation between the various actors or whether the energy interests of these key external powers are so diverse as to clash in Central Asia.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Central Asia, and Asia

334. Turkey: An Emerging Energy Transit State and Possible Energy Hub

Author:
Gareth Winrow
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Officials in Ankara are pressing for Turkey to become a key energy hub for the transportation of hydrocarbons from the Caspian region and the Middle East to Europe. It appears that they are seeking to secure certain strategic and economic advantages. Turkey's increasing energy needs could be satisfied, re-export rights obtained, and ambitions to become a significant regional state fulfilled which could facilitate accession to the EU. It seems more likely, though, that Turkey will become an important energy transit state, especially for the Southern Gas Corridor. Here, Turkey could still diversify its gas imports and reduce dependence on Russia.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

335. The Equilibrium of the 2010 NATO Strategic Concept

Author:
Alessandro Marrone
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The 2010 Strategic Concept reaches an equilibrium among different Allies' views by rejecting extreme options, combining 'regional' and 'global' elements in a new common ground, and setting up flexible guidelines for NATO's future evolution. It is the result of 20 years of transatlantic debate over NATO's role and geographic reach, and represents a significant step forward with respect to the previous Strategic Concept approved in 1999.
Topic:
NATO

336. Qatar and Expanded Contours of Small State Diplomacy

Author:
Bessma Momani and Andrew F. Cooper
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
It is increasingly obvious that Qatar is playing above its weight in the international role. There is no one script that defines Qatar's diplomatic role. It is best seen as a maverick, willing to work with the US as well as Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. It operates a complex form of public diplomacy via Al-Jazeera and other high profile initiatives at the same time as it mediates behind the scenes with Israel and Lebanon. Qatar's role as a unique hybrid diplomatic actor is reinforced by the enthusiastic support it displayed towards the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, including operational support for the UN Security Resolution to place a no-fly zone with respect to the Qaddafi's regime, while being more circumspect on the uprising in Bahrain. Such an extensive, unconventional and differentiated approach creates risks as well as opportunities. Yet, through a combination of resources and vision, it is skilled resilience not vulnerability that defines Qatar.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iran, Libya, Egypt, Bahrain, Tunisia, and Dublin

337. Sleeping Beauty Awakens: The Italian Parliament and the EU after the Lisbon Treaty

Author:
Raffaello Matarazzo and Jacopo Leone
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
More direct involvement in the EU decision-making process has traditionally been an ambition of the Italian parliament. The implementation of the Lisbon Treaty has prompted parliament to maintain tighter scrutiny of the EU legislative process, not only through the use of the new subsidiarity control mechanism, but in particular by exerting a stronger influence on the government on EU affairs. The latter will be the key challenge in the post-Lisbon era. It is too early to say, however, whether this will have a positive or negative impact on the EU's democratic legitimacy.
Political Geography:
Italy and Lisbon

338. Charting the Future Trajectory of the Muslim Brotherhood

Author:
Silvia Colombo
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Review of: The Muslim Brotherhood : the burden of tradition, by Alison Pargeter, Saqi, 2010; The Muslim Brotherhood and Egypt's succession crisis : the politics of liberalisation and reform in the Middle East, by Mohammed Zahid, Tauris Academic Studies, 2010; I Fratelli musulmani nel mondo contemporaneo, edited by Massimo Campanini and Karim Mezran, UTET libreria, 2010
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt

339. A New Theoretical Perspective on EU Policy Toward its Eastern Neighbours

Author:
Michele Comelli
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Review of: Constructivism and rationalism in EU external relations : the case of the European neighbourhood policy, by Petr Kratochvil and Elsa Tulmets, Nomos, 2010
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

340. Algeria at the Crossroads, Between Continuity and Change

Author:
Andrea Dessì
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Algeria is the only country in North Africa which seems to be relatively immune to the so-called “Arab spring”. Popular protests did erupt in Algeria at precisely the same time as they were enveloping neighbouring countries, but the demands of the protesters never reached a popular consensus calling for the demise of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Drawing on the country's extensive monetary reserves, the Algerian authorities have responded by implementing a series of economic and social reforms, which have further weakened the resolve and unity of the protesters. After repealing the emergency laws in late February 2011, the government appeared to have regained the upper hand, but strikes and demonstrations have continued. Algeria still faces the real prospect of future popular unrest if the government fails in its promise to enact wide ranging political and economic reforms by early 2012. Given the country's geostrategic importance at both regional and international levels, the international community and in particular the EU must do more in order to ensure that Algeria is set on a sustainable path for the future.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Arabia, Algeria, and North Africa