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202. The Edge: Crises as Turning Points for Regional Integration Processes?
- Author:
- Sonia Lucarelli
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Review of: Regions and Crises. New Challenges for Contemporary Regionalisms, edited by Lorenzo Fioramonti, Palgrave Macmillan, 2012
203. Implications of Turkish-Azerbaijani Relations for Regional Security and Development
- Author:
- Burcu Gültekin Punsmann
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Turkey's actions in the South Caucasus face serious limitations as long as it has no direct influence over the dynamics of conflict settlement. Turkey has the potential to support transformation and reform within the societies of the South Caucasus through soft power. The current state of Turkey's relations with Armenia will keep on seriously curtailing Turkey's outreach in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan is a stakeholder in Turkish-Armenian relations and Turkey, because of its inability to proceed further with its bilateral agenda with Armenia, has become a stakeholder in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Azerbaijan's leverage on Turkey appears to be more and more influential. The importance of the notion of Turkishness in national politics is an important factor in assessing the strength of pro-Azeri feeling. The Kurdish problem is today a major political challenge. It is the most powerful dynamic underpinning the questioning and progressive redefinition of national identity.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
204. Energy and Politics: Behind the Scenes of the Nabucco-TAP Competition
- Author:
- Nicolò Sartori
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The European Union launched the Southern Gas Corridor initiative with the twofold aim of strengthening the diversification of Europe's gas sources and transportation routes, and reducing the role of upstreamers in the European gas market. The clear preference expressed by the European Commission - the corridor's mastermind - for Nabucco was expected to weigh in heavily, allowing the EU-backed project to easily win the competition. However, other factors, beyond political support, ended up tilting the balance decisively in favour of Nabucco West's final rival, the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). These do not include only the technical and commercial criteria set out by the Shah Deniz II consortium, but also more mundane considerations. Nabucco West' s complex organizational and decision-making procedures, the attractiveness of the exemption from Third Party Access (TPA) granted by the EU to TAP, and SOCAR's specific interest in the Greek market also influenced the consortium's final decision. An analysis of the Southern Gas Corridor competition suggests that when it comes to energy, political support and institutional involvement do not always represent the decisive element, and may be counterproductive at times.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Europe
205. Fear of the Future: Russia in the Global Economy in the Next Few Years
- Author:
- Philip Hanson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The Russian economy, though so far in better shape than Europe, is facing the possibility of very slow growth in the near future. Its tendency to volatility was demonstrated in 2008-09, when Russian GDP fell more than that of any other large country. Looking at that experience and at current concerns, it seems that Russia has both demand-side (slow world growth, uncertain future oil prices) and supply-side (falling labour-force) problems. The continuing failure to provide secure property rights for business probably compounds these difficulties.
- Topic:
- Oil and Law
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
206. Time for Tough Love in Transatlantic Relations
- Author:
- Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The furore that greeted news that negotiations were to start on a transatlantic free trade agreement revealed not only the potential importance of any putative deal, but also the tendency of Europeans to view international politics almost uniquely in economic terms. This neglect of security and broader geostrategic issues is short-sighted and dangerous. It is precisely the liberal world order in place since the Second World War that has allowed Europeans to develop their economic potential. Leaving it to the United States to preserve that order is an increasingly problematic strategy, with the US ever more reluctant to police the world in the way it once did. The US has, for many years, asked its partners to contribute more to the preservation of common security interests. Given the failure of these attempts to date, it might be time for Washington to resort to tougher tactics in an attempt to entice Europeans out of their geostrategic retirement.
- Topic:
- Security and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Washington
207. The 'TTIP-ing Point': How the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Could Impact European Defence
- Author:
- Daniel Fiott
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The European Union and the United States are on the verge of agreeing to a transatlantic free trade agreement. The proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership is aimed at boosting EU and US economic growth, but the negotiating partners have not excluded the defence sector from negotiations. Europe is at a tipping point regarding the rationale for its defence-industrial integration efforts. Any TTIP extending to the defence sector will raise questions about the nature of the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base, and, crucially, how it impacts the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and the Common Security and Defence Policy.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
208. Developing a New Type of Relationship Between China and the US
- Author:
- Zhu Liqun
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- This rejoinder to Daniel Twining's article in the last issue (June 2013) of The International Spectator argues that both China and the United States recognise how important their relationship is for the world and the Asia-Pacific in particular. But the risk of tension on the security front has increased recently due to the US policy toward maritime disputes that has actually involved meddling between the parties involved, and its 'pivot' to Asia which targets China with more military engagement in the region. The China-US relationship has never been an easy one with the US certain of its primacy and China proud of its glorious past, which almost makes a conflictual power transition a self-fulfilling prophecy. Management of the relationship is the key for both countries to bring about more cooperation and to rein in competition. Co-evolution, a new type of relationship among major countries, is the only way out, in which the logic of interaction is 'live-and-let-live' rather than mors tua, vita mea.
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and Asia-Pacific
209. The Eurozone Crisis: A Crisis of Politics, Not Just Economics
- Author:
- Vivien A. Schmidt
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The economic policies of the eurozone crisis, generally presented in apolitical terms, are political both in their underlying principles and in their effects. The EU's 'policy without politics', based on ordo-liberal ideas for macroeconomic austerity and neo-liberal ideas for structural reform, has left the member states with 'politics without policy', in which dissatisfied citizens have had little recourse. This has led to increasing political disaffection, polarisation, and Euroscepticism. Proposals to politicise so as to legitimise the EU by electing the Commission President hold some promise, in contrast to election of the Council President. But the danger, given the eurozone crisis, is that such elections will only politicise so as to delegitimise.
- Topic:
- Economics
210. China, the Interdependent Giant, and the Global Economic Crisis
- Author:
- Thomas G. Moore
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The global economic crisis revealed China to be an interdependent giant, one whose 'rise' was undeniable but also one whose deepening participation in transnational production sharing and network trade made it highly susceptible to an external shock. China weathered the storm relatively well - avoiding a recession, in particular - not because it had 'decoupled' from the G7 economies but because its stimulus measures were unusually swift and powerful. One cost, however, has been a worsening domestic imbalance between investment and consumption that carries a heightened risk of asset price inflation, non-performing loans and destabilising levels of local government debt. Meanwhile, China's ties to the world economy have not fundamentally changed since the crisis began. Despite stirring leader rhetoric and summit declarations, the BRICS have made only modest progress in meeting their goals. East Asia, North America and Europe remain China's principal trade partners, and cross-border production chains connecting these regions remain the dominant mode of China's incorporation into the world economy.
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, East Asia, and North America