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22. The 2012 Armenian Parliamentary Elections: Implications for Armenian Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Marilisa Lorusso
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Armenian parliamentary elections were held on 6 May 2012. Five parties and a coalition won seats in Parliament. Three of them are opposition parties, two in the previous legislature were allies of the presidency party, the Republican Party. The latter comfortably won the elections. With 45% votes through the proportional system and 29 seats through the majoritarian one, the Republican Party has the absolute majority of seats, 69 out of 131. So the two main issues in Armenian foreign policy - the protracted conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh and relations with Turkey - will be addressed in continuity with the policy expressed so far by President Serzh Sargsyan, unless the regional counterparts change their strategies. With the party he chairs being confirmed as the leading political force of the country, Sargsyan will run for his second term in the upcoming presidential elections.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Caucasus
23. How to Renew Transatlantic Relations in the 21st Century
- Author:
- Marcin Zaborowski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The EU and the US, mainly through NATO, have been successful in securing peace and prosperity in Europe during the Cold War and in promoting peace beyond Europe after 1990. With the emergence of new powers and the rise of multipolarity, however, it is no longer apparent that transatlantic relations are indispensable and ways must be found to make sure that the relationship remains relevant. The EU and the US currently relate poorly to each other and as a result do not obtain the best possible outcome from their combined resources. Two elements are key to improving transatlantic relations: an inclusive policy towards Turkey (in the strategic interests of both the EU and the US) and more permanent and workable structures suited to the realities of the 21st century.
- Topic:
- NATO
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Turkey
24. Turkey: An Emerging Energy Transit State and Possible Energy Hub
- Author:
- Gareth Winrow
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Officials in Ankara are pressing for Turkey to become a key energy hub for the transportation of hydrocarbons from the Caspian region and the Middle East to Europe. It appears that they are seeking to secure certain strategic and economic advantages. Turkey's increasing energy needs could be satisfied, re-export rights obtained, and ambitions to become a significant regional state fulfilled which could facilitate accession to the EU. It seems more likely, though, that Turkey will become an important energy transit state, especially for the Southern Gas Corridor. Here, Turkey could still diversify its gas imports and reduce dependence on Russia.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
25. The New Turkish Foreign Policy And The Future Of Turkey-Eu Relations
- Author:
- Emiliano Alessandri
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The article refutes the often-heard argument that Ankara's recent 'activism' in the Middle East indicates that Turkey is 'drifting away from the West'. Turkey's improving relations with its neighbors (not only in the Middle East), are mainly a result of the end of the Cold War and of domestic developments which have 'unlocked' Turkey, transforming it into a more open and democratic country with an even greater stake in EU membership. At the same time, the many international and domestic changes that have occurred since Turkey was granted candidate status call for a 're-foundation' of the Turkey-EU relationship. Lacking the latter, the future of Turkey-EU relations will indeed remain uncertain.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
26. The Baffling Short-sightedness in the EU-Turkey-Cyprus Triangle
- Author:
- Nathalie Tocci
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Diehard believers in Turkey's European future had, for a brief moment, hung their hopes on the European Parliament (EP) as the key to unlocking the poisonous stalemate in Turkey's ailing accession process. The glimmer of light had come with the Lisbon Treaty, which could have been used to unblock the stalemate over the Direct Trade Regulation (DTR) between the EU and northern Cyprus by granting a voice to the EP on the matter. Breaking the stalemate would not have magically removed all obstacles to Turkey's protracted accession process. But it would have breathed new life and instilled a dose of much-needed optimism in the troubled relations between Turkey and the Union. Alas, that opportunity has been lost and, with it, the short-term hope of a rosier future for Cyprus, Turkey and the EU as a whole.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Lisbon, and Cyprus
27. Betting on Perseverance Why the Double Track Approach is Still the Best Way to Deal with the Iranian Nuclear Conundrum
- Author:
- Riccardo Alcaro
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The standoff over Iran's nuclear programme, suspected of harbouring secret military ends, is widely considered a major flashpoint. A nuclear Iran – as the argument goes – would dramatically alter the regional balance in the Gulf, providing the Islamic Republic with a formidable deterrent against external aggression, while augmenting its ability to exert influence on its neighbours and eliminating the strategic advantage of its rival Israel, the only nuclear-armed state in the Middle East. An Iranian bomb could also trigger a regional nuclear arms race since such countries as Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, might feel compelled to emulate Iran. This would in turn result in the eventual collapse of the international nuclear non-proliferation regime based on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Given the stakes, it comes as no surprise that curbing Iran's nuclear programme has rapidly become a foreign policy priority for western powers, Israel, and the majority of Arab states, which have a history of rivalry with and mistrust of Persian and Shia-dominated Iran.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt
28. The Azerbaijan-Russia-Turkey Energy Triangle and its Impact on the Future of Nagorno-Karabakh
- Author:
- Nona Mikhelidze
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Caucasian-Caspian region has become a stage for the collision of opposing foreign security and energy policies. After 16 years of a very fragile ceasefire, the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh continues to depend not only on the attitudes of the conflict parties, but also and perhaps even more on the re-organization of the region at the political, security and energy levels. Three main developments can affect the prospects for conflict resolution in Karabakh: the parties' growing frustration with the OSCE Minsk-Group mediation; the US-brokered Turkish-Armenian rapprochement and the deterioration in US-Azeri relations; and finally, Russia's resurgence in the region. These three inter-related factors could result in a new regional scenario marked by the emergence of an energy triangle between Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey, which in turn could impact on the destiny of Nagorno- Karabakh.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Energy Policy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Turkey, Soviet Union, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
29. Turkey's New Foreign Policy and the Future of Turkey-EU Relations
- Author:
- Emiliano Alessandri
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Turkey is not 'drifting' towards the east. It is in search of a new place and a new identity, given the many changes that have taken place in the domestic and international contexts, particularly since the end of the Cold War. This complex process of transformation does not in itself challenge Turkey's Western orientation, but it certainly puts it to the test. It is time for the debate on Turkey's drift to be replaced by a more serious and fruitful one on the reasons why Turkey is still important for the EU and the West and what Europe and the West mean for and can offer contemporary Turkey.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey
30. The Turkish-Armenian Rapprochement at the Deadlock
- Author:
- Nona Mikhelidze
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In October 2009, after intense diplomatic talks and the active involvement of key external actors, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and his Armenian counterpart Edward Nalbandian signed two protocols aimed at restoring bilateral relations. The agreements have however remained unratified due to political obstacles closely linked to historic disputes and the geopolitical constellation in the South Caucasus. As a result, even if rapprochement between Ankara and Yerevan has the potential of producing far-reaching changes in the regional political equilibrium, the status quo remains the most likely scenario.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Turkey, Middle East, Armenia, and South Caucasus
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