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981. The Konjic Conundrum: Why Minorities have Failed to Return to Model Open City

Publication Date:
06-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 1 July 1997 Konjic became the first municipality in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) to be officially recognised as an Open City by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). At the time, the Open Cities Initiative was supposed to form the backbone of UNHCR's approach to minority return. To obtain Open City status Konjic had to demonstrate a willingness to accept the return of minority displaced persons. In return, the UNHCR endeavoured to reward the municipality with additional funding. However, despite large-scale financial assistance and although close to 2,000 minority families have formally registered their intent to return, reliable sources estimate that fewer than 300 minority returnees have made their way home to Konjic since the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) brought the Bosnian war to a halt.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and United Nations

982. A Tale of Two Cities: Return of Displaced Persons to Jajce and Travnik

Publication Date:
06-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Croat-controlled Jajce and Bosniac-controlled Travnik are both municipalities to which displaced persons who do not belong to the majority ethnic group have been returning in substantial numbers. Some 5,000 Bosniacs have returned to Jajce (prewar population, 44,900) and 2,500 Croats have returned to Travnik (pre-war population, 70,400) since the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) came into force. These 7,500 “minority returns” constitute nearly 20 per cent of the total estimated 40,000 minority returns throughout the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), although the combined current populations of Jajce and Travnik (less than 75,000) account for less than 3 percent of the Federation's current population. These two municipalities in the Middle Bosnia Canton thus may be considered successful examples of minority return, if not yet reintegration. Nevertheless, at different times and to varying degrees, the authorities in Jajce and Travnik have obstructed return movements.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Migration, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

983. Inventory of a Windfall: Milosevic's Gains from the Kosovo Dialogue

Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
When on 15 May 1998 Slobodan Milosevic met with Ibrahim Rugova it was the first time that the Yugoslav president had met with an Albanian leader from Kosovo in close to a decade. The event, heralding weekly talks between Kosovo's Albanians and the Serbian government, has thus been hailed as a "dramatic turn-about" and "a first step toward peace in Kosovo". However, the fact that, after so many years of stale-mate, some kind of negotiations have begun, should not in itself be a reason for euphoria. Key to the success of any talks is the framework within which they take place. Negotiations concerning the future status of Kosovo may, as a result of the concessions offered to the Yugoslav president, have got off to an inauspicious start.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

984. Minority Return or Mass Relocation?

Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
International organisations working to help displaced Bosnians return to their pre-war homes -- arguably the most important element of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) -- have declared 1998 the “year of minority returns”. Four months into the year, however, there is the distinct possibility that 1998 may instead prove to be the “year of mass relocation”. This need not be the case. The political climate in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia) has shifted in recent months and, despite major setbacks, including in Drvar, minority return success stories are already beginning to emerge. In order to turn the current trickle of minority returns into a steady flow, the lessons of past failures and successes have to be learned.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

985. Again, the Visible Hand: Slobodan Milosevic's Manipulation of the Kosovo Dispute

Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Kosovo, an impoverished region at the southern tip of Serbia, is drawing ineluctably closer to war with each passing day. By night, men smuggle guns and ammunition from Albania to an Albanian militia determined to wrest Kosovo away from Serbia. The militia's fighters, angered by years of Serbian police violence against Kosovo's 90-percent Albanian majority, have killed Serbian police officers and murdered Albanians deemed to be loyal to the Serbian state.
Topic:
Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania

986. Rebuilding a Multi-Ethnic Sarajevo: The need for Minority Returns

Publication Date:
02-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
To many who followed the Bosnian war from abroad, Sarajevo symbolised Bosnia and Herzegovina's rich tradition of multi-culturalism and multi-ethnicity. While the Bosnian capital came under daily bombardment from Republika Srpska forces, its citizens of all faiths, Bosniacs, Serbs, Croats and others, suffered and survived together in the spirit of tolerance in which they had lived together for centuries. For multi-culturalism and multi-ethnicity to re-emerge in Bosnia after the war, this spirit must be rekindled in peace.
Topic:
Demographics, Ethnic Conflict, and Migration
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

987. A Hollow Promise? Return of Bosnian Serb Displaced Persons to Drvar

Publication Date:
01-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In Bosnia's local elections on 13 and 14 September 1997, parties representing displaced Serbs from Croat-held Drvar, Bosansko Grahovo and Glamoc won either a majority or a plurality of council seats in these three municipalities in Canton 10 of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since then, displaced Serbs have begun spontaneously moving back to their homes with the result that by mid-January, some 800 heads of households had returned to Drvar alone. Other displaced Serbs in Western Republika Srpska and in Brcko are monitoring the fortunes of these returnees closely. If Serbs are able to return to Drvar, this will free up housing in Republika Srpska for displaced Bosniacs and Croats. If, however, their return to Drvar is obstructed, displaced Serbs elsewhere will be discouraged from attempting to return to other Federation municipalities.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Eastern Europe

988. A Peace or just a Cease-Fire? The Military Equation in Post Dayton Bosnia

Publication Date:
12-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Achieving the ambitious goals of the General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina (DPA) -- forging a unified state out of the shaky Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and resistant and unstable Republika Srpska -- is a complex and difficult undertaking which has not been made easier by the quest for a so-called “exit strategy”. Ultimately, success will be judged by the durability of the peace. But as the pre-announced departure date for the NATO-led Stabilisation Force (SFOR) approaches, it is clear that a self-sustaining peace is not yet in sight.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

989. Dayton: Two Years On, A Review of Progress in Implementing the Dayton Peace Accords in Bosnia

Publication Date:
12-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Prospects for lasting peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina have improved in recent months as a result of a clear shift in approach towards implementation of the peace plan on the part of the international community. The new-found resolve has been characterised, in particular, by a snatch operation in Prijedor in July in which one indicted war criminal was captured and another killed, and the seizure by the NATO-led Stabilisation Force (SFOR) of four transmission towers used by Bosnian Serb television's (SRT) Pale studio which had hitherto been used to broadcast ethnic hatred and obstruct implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe