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741. CÔTE D'IVOIRE: "The War Is Not Yet Over"

Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
"The war is not yet over", an ICG mission to Côte d'Ivoire repeatedly heard in November 2003. There are ominous signs that the Côte d'Ivoire peace process initiated in January 2003 has broken down. If the country goes back to war, it could well take all West Africa with it, endangering even recent progress in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The UN Security Council needs to take a leading role in the peace process, initially by upgrading its current presence to a full peacekeeping mission. This could include subsuming some 1,400 West African troops under the umbrella of an expanded operation. The UN should also step up cooperation between its ongoing peace operation in Liberia and its Ivorian peace mission, MINUCI.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa, United Nations, Liberia, and Sierra Leone

742. Nepal: Back to the Gun

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With the collapse of the ceasefire and peace talks between government and Maoist insurgents, Nepal appears to be in for months more of bloody fighting. There are prospects for eventual resumption of negotiations since neither side can realistically expect a military victory, and there are indications of what a diplomatic compromise might look like. However, the international community needs to urge all sides toward compromise and press the government to restore democracy, bring the political parties back into the picture and control the army's tendency to commit serious abuses when conducting operations. Similarly, the Maoists should discontinue targeted assassinations, bombing and widespread extortion.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Government, Regional Cooperation, and War
Political Geography:
South Asia and Nepal

743. Youth in Central Asia: Losing the New Generation

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
More international involvement is needed in all spheres of youth activity in Central Asia, where around half the population is under 30. In a world where many people expect progress with each generation, most of the young in this region are worse off than their parents. They have higher rates of illiteracy, unemployment, poor health, and drug use and are more likely to be victims or perpetrators of violence. Few regions have seen such sharp declines in the welfare of their youth, and the combination of declining living standards with a demographic bulge brings increased risks of political instability and conflict. Current trends must be reversed if the region is to avoid more serious economic and political problems.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Demographics, Economics, Education, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Central Asia

744. The Challenge of Political Reform: Jordanian Democratisation and Regional Instability

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Navigating the treacherous shoals of the Iraq conflict with a steady hand, Jordan appears to have emerged unscathed from the turbulent months just past. The Hashemite Kingdom adjusted its rhetoric to fit the public mood while backing U.S. policy in Iraq and in the Israeli-Palestinian struggle, managed to overcome its principal weaknesses and now faces the post-war world with renewed confidence and authority.
Topic:
Democratization, Demographics, Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Jordan

745. Iran: Discontent and Disarray

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The decision to award the Nobel Peace Prize to Shirin Ebadi, a courageous human rights lawyer, has focused renewed attention on the deep divisions and tensions within Iran. How these work out, and how Iran defines its role in the world, will have a critical impact on a range of wider security issues, from Iraq and Afghanistan to the Arab-Israeli conflict and the future of nuclear non-proliferation.
Topic:
Security, Demographics, Development, Economics, Politics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iran, Israel, and Arabia

746. Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Program

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The announcement on 21 October 2003 of an agreement between Iran on the one hand and Britain, France and Germany on the other, is an important and welcome step in resolving the controversy surrounding Tehran's nuclear program. But it would be wrong to assume that it ends it. The challenge now is to use the breathing space provided by the agreement to tackle the questions – about its implementation, the future of Iran's uranium enrichment activities and Iran's own security concerns – that, for the time being, it has deferred.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Government, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
Political Geography:
Britain, Iran, France, Arabia, and Germany

747. Macedonia: No Room for Complacency

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Recent events require that policymakers revise substantially the conventional assessment that Macedonia is the foremost political “success story” of the Balkans. In fact, it is an underperforming post-conflict country still very much at risk, unable to tackle – operationally or politically -- its security challenges without upsetting an uncertain ethnic balance. Clear-eyed analysis of the dynamics driving unrest, from criminality and weak policing to an equally weak economy and corruption, is needed if a country that narrowly avoided war in 2001 is to secure long-term stability. Specifically, Macedonia cannot yet safely do without the presence of an international security force.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Macedonia

748. Refugie Set Deplaces Au Burundi: Desamorcer La Bombe Fonciere

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
La signature d'un accord définitif de cessez-le-feu et la suspension permanente des hostilités, aussi élusives soient-elles aujourd'hui, risquent de produire le retour massif d'une population déracinée qui n'attendra pas que le pays soit fin prêt à les accueillir pour rentrer chez elle. Le rapatriement et la réinstallation rapides d'environ un million de Burundais ne pourront se faire dans de bonnes conditions que s'ils bénéficient d'une préparation minutieuse. Aujourd'hui, le gouvernement de transition comme la communauté internationale n'ont pas pris la mesure des conséquences politiques qu'un tel retour pourrait avoir sur le pays, notamment pour la gestion de la question foncière. Les conflits fonciers pourraient en effet devenir une nouvelle source de déstabilisation pour la transition au lendemain de la signature d'un cessez-le-feu définitif.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Migration

749. Disarmament and Reintegration in Afghanistan

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The domination of Afghanistan's political landscape by armed parties and individual commanders is still the principal obstacle to implementation of the political process that was agreed at the Bonn conference in late 2001. Without a credible process of disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration of former commanders and fighters into society (DR), it is inconceivable that any of the key elements of that political process - including the adoption of a new constitution, judicial reform, and elections - can be meaningfully implemented. More international engagement across the country - in the form of both security contributions and economic assistance - remains the essential ingredient.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, Economics, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

750. Peacebuilding in Afghanistan

Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Tackling conflict and providing security in Afghanistan requires a greater effort to deal with local disputes that frequently flare into violence and lead to wider problems. Although these attract less attention than the threat from the resurgent Taliban, they are important as they produce an environment of insecurity which destroys all quality of life for ordinary civilians and undermines the legitimacy of the Afghan Transitional Administration in Kabul. Local commanders often exploit these disputes to consolidate their positions, further weakening the authority of the central government.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Kabul