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691. Nepal: Beyond Royal Rule

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nepal is in turmoil and the monarchy is in question. King Gyanendra had calculated that his authoritarian moves since October 2002 would return order to a land wracked by Maoist insurgency and political instability but he has failed. The seven months since the royal coup have seen security degenerate under a royal government with no plans for peace and democracy. The Maoists seized the initiative by announcing a unilateral three month ceasefire on 3 September 2005. The international community needs to recognise that its calls for palace/political party reconciliation as the sole path toward stability are unrealistic. New lines need to be explored, beginning with support for the ceasefire and the tentative dialogue underway between the parties and the Maoists.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Asia and Nepal

692. The United Nations as a Security Political Actor - with a Special Focus on Africa

Author:
Bjørn Møller
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The report analysis the UN's role in the provision of four different forms of security – national, societal, human and environmental security – both in general terms and with regard to Africa. It also contacins brief surveys of the UN's collaboration with regional and subregional organisations and of envisaged UN reforms.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa

693. The EU as a Security Actor - "security by being" and "security by doing"

Author:
Bjørn Møller
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the present report, the focus is placed on the European Union (EU) and its security policy. It commences with some context-setting, i.e. with clarifying the EU's place in the global and European security “architecture” and its relations with the United Nations, the OSCE and NATO, finding the latter to be more controversial than suggested by official declarations. It then proceeds with the analysis of the EU, finding its main contribution to regional security to be related to what the EU is and represents rather than to what it is andre presents rather than to what it is does. An analysis of the latter, i.e. the directly security-related institutions and activities of the EU under the auspices of the CFSP (Common Foreign and Security Policy) and the ESDP (European Security and Defence Policy) is also provided as well as an account of the “neighbourhood” programmes of the EU.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and NATO
Political Geography:
Europe

694. Azerbaijan: Turning Over a New Leaf?

Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Oil-rich Azerbaijan, which borders Iran, Turkey and Russia and is still scarred from its defeat by Armenia ten years ago, gives cause for both hope and concern. The October 2003 election of Ilham Aliyev to the presidency that his late-father, Heydar, had held almost from independence, highlighted the stark choices which now face the country. Its government is a carefully designed autocratic system, which the father and former Soviet-era politburo member began to construct in the late 1960 s, with heavy reliance on family and clan members, oil revenues and patronage.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

695. Myanmar: Sanctions, Engagement or Another Way Forward?

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Myanmar's National Convention, dormant since the mid 1990s, is due to reconvene on 17 May 2004. If Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and National League for Democracy (NLD) Deputy Chairman Tin Oo are released before then (as it is now widely assumed they will be) and if the NL D is able to effectively participate in its work (which is much less certain), the Convention process provides an opportunity to move beyond the desolate political stalemate which has prevailed in one form or another since the suppression of the pro-democracy movement in 1988.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

696. HIV/AIDS as a Security Issue in Africa: Lessons from Uganda

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
HIV/AIDS prevention and conflict prevention should go hand in hand. They are the two blades of the scissors required to cut the strangler's cord choking Africa. Some 2.5 million Africans will die of AIDS in 2004. One in four African countries presently suffers from the effects of armed conflict.
Topic:
Security, Human Welfare, Non-Governmental Organization, Poverty, and War
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

697. Identity Crisis: Israel and Its Arab Citizens

Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For much of its history, Israel has focused on the neighbouring Arab states and Palestinians living in the occupied territories. Too often overlooked has been the status of those Israeli citizens who are Arab. They have attracted national attention only at times of heightened crisis, and even then in a highly reactive fashion. Unless systemic inequities facing Arab Israelis are addressed and an inclusive process is launched to define the state's long-term attitude towards this segment of its citizenry, prospects for internal strife and instability will remain high.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Israel and Arabia

698. Iraq's Kurds: Toward an Historic Compromise?

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The removal of the Ba'ath regime in 2003 opened a Pandora's box of long-suppressed aspirations, none as potentially explosive as the Kurds' demand, expressed publicly and with growing impatience, for wide-ranging autonomy in a region of their own, including the oil- rich governorate of Kirkuk. If mismanaged, the Kurdish question could fatally undermine the political transition and lead to renewed violence. Kurdish leaders need to speak more candidly with their followers about the compromises they privately acknowledge are required, and the international community needs to work more proactively to help seal the historic deal.
Topic:
Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq, Arabia, and Kirkuk

699. Islamism in North Africa II: Egypt's Opportunity

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Important changes in the outlook of Egyptian Islamic activism in recent years have opened up possibilities for progressive political development, but these have gone unexploited because of the conservatism of the Egyptian government's policies. The absence of serious violence since late 1997 strongly suggests that the strategy of armed struggle (jihad) against the state has not only failed but has effectively been abandoned. At the same time, the ideology of non-violent Islamic activism has evolved and now emphatically embraces democratic principles and elements of a modernist outlook. However, unless the Egyptian government changes its approach, opens up the political field and undertakes serious political reform, the frustration which many Egyptians feel could lead to a recrudescence of violent activism at some stage. The government risks realising too late that it has squandered a vital opportunity and wasted the fruits of its own earlier successes on the security front.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, and Egypt

700. Serbia's U-turn

Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In politics and policies, Serbia increasingly resembles the Milosevic-era without Milosevic. Its reaction to the catastrophic mid-March 2004 near collapse of the UN mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), the strong showing by ultra-nationalists in the 28 December 2003 parliamentary elections and the subsequent two-months of squabbling before democratic parties could form a minority government that depends for survival on the support of Milosevic's old party all are signs that more trouble lies ahead. In 2004 Serbia can anticipate continued political instability, increasingly strained relations with the West and further economic decline. The spasm of ethnic cleansing of Serbs by Albanians in Kosovo has raised the prospect of Kosovo partition, strengthened the nationalist right wing and increased anti-Western sentiment. Instability and economic weakness could hasten moves by Montenegro towards independence, while Kosovo tensions could spill over into the Presevo valley, Sandzak and even Vojvodina.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania