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541. CÔTE D'IVOIRE :FAUT-IL CROIRE À L'ACCORD DE OUAGADOUGOU ?

Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
L'accord de paix conclu le 4 mars 2007 à Ouagadougou entre Laurent Gbagbo et Guillaume Soro constitue un tournant majeur dans la résolution du conflit armé en Côte d'Ivoire, mais ne représente qu'un premier pas dans la bonne direction. Tous les Ivoiriens qui souhaitent une paix durable doivent maintenant se mobiliser pour exiger du gouvernement de transition la délivrance effective des titres d'identité prévus, la récupération des armes encore détenues par les milices, une véritable réforme du secteur de la sécurité et un processus électoral crédible. La communauté internationale a évité à la Côte d'Ivoire de sombrer dans le chaos au cours de ces quatre dernières années et doit maintenir intact son engagement militaire, politique et financier. L'évolution du processus de paix ne doit pas être dictée par les seules ambitions des deux signataires de l'accord de Ouagadougou mais aussi par l'objectif de la construction d'une paix durable en Côte d'Ivoire qui est cruciale pour la stabilité de toute l'Afrique de l'Ouest.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Civil War, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa

542. WHERE IS IRAQ HEADING? LESSONS FROM BASRA

Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Amid the media and military focus on Baghdad, another major Iraqi city – Basra – is being overlooked. Yet Basra's experience carries important lessons for the capital and nation as a whole. Coalition forces have already implemented a security plan there, Operation Sinbad, which was in many ways similar to Baghdad's current military surge. What U.S. commanders call “clear, hold and build”, their British counterparts earlier had dubbed “clear, hold and civil reconstruction”. And, as in the capital, the putative goal was to pave the way for a takeover by Iraqi forces. Far from being a model to be replicated, however, Basra is an example of what to avoid. With renewed violence and instability, Basra illustrates the pitfalls of a transitional process that has led to collapse of the state apparatus and failed to build legitimate institutions. Fierce intra-Shiite fighting also disproves the simplistic view of Iraq neatly divided between three homogenous communities.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Civil War, and War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

543. SIERRA LEONE: THE ELECTION OPPORTUNITY

Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sierra Leone holds presidential and legislative elections in August 2007. President Ahmed Tejan Kabbah, who won a landslide victory in 2002 at the end of the civil war, split the ruling Sierra Leone People's Party (SLPP) by anointing a successor, Vice President Solomon Berewa. When Charles Margai formed the People's Movement for Democratic Change (PMDC), the break-up rejuvenated politics but also heightened tension in SLPP strongholds. The All People's Congress (APC), which gained in 2004 local elections, may be able to exploit this division. Return to a constituency-based voting system for parliament has reinforced the leverage of traditional chiefs in national politics and produced potentially vicious competition. Sierra Leone is still a fragile state in which peace will not be consolidated until two things happen. The elections must be violence-free and fair for results to be respected. Then the new authorities must deal with sources of discontent such as corruption, chiefs' abuse of power and youth unemployment, lest they threaten stability.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Africa

544. NEPAL'S TROUBLED TARAI REGION

Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Unrest in the Tarai plains has exposed the weaknesses of Nepal's peace process, could derail elections for a constituent assembly in November and, if not properly addressed, could start a new form of conflict. Madhesis – plainspeople who are some one third of the country's population – have protested, sometimes violently, against the discrimination that has in effect excluded them from public life. Weeks of demonstrations and clashes between political rivals recently left several dozen dead. The government has offered to address issues such as increased electoral representation, affirmative action for marginalised groups and federalism but has dragged its feet over implementing dialogue. Tension had been building for several years but was largely ignored by the political elites and international observers, and the scale of the protest shocked even its own leaders. The problems will only be resolved by strengthening the national political process and making it both inclusive and responsive – starting with free and fair elections to a constituent assembly later this year.
Topic:
Civil War and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Asia and Nepal

545. CONSOLIDATING STABILITY IN HAITI

Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Haiti's security and stability remain fragile. President René Préval has endorsed national policies for security, police, justice and prison reform, but a weak state and decades, if not centuries, of institutional abandonment, make implementation slow, difficult and uneven. His first real success has been the dismantling of the toughest gangs in Port-au-Prince, but for this to be sustainable a community-friendly Haitian National Police (HNP) needs to be built under the security umbrella provided by the UN peacekeepers (MINUSTAH), infrastructure and economic opportunity must appear in the capital's poor neighbourhoods, and comparable recovery and reconstruction have to be extended across the country.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Haiti

546. Nigeria: Failed Elections, Failing State?

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nigeria's democracy is in crisis. The April 2007 elections were supposed to move the country to a higher rung on the democratisation ladder, create a more conducive environment to resolve its many internal conflicts and strengthen its credentials as a leading peacemaker, but instead generated serious new problems that may be pushing it further towards the status of a failed state. The declared winner, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, assumed the presidency on 29 May with less legitimacy than any previously elected president and so with less capacity to moderate and resolve its violent domestic conflicts. He must act urgently to heal wounds, redress electoral injustice and punish the most grievous voting frauds, including those by officials of the agencies directly involved in administering the elections. To salvage his government's legitimacy, he needs to pursue policies of inclusiveness and restraint in relation to the opposition, accept the decisions of the tribunals (including the Supreme Court if need be) reviewing the petitions of defeated candidates, and embark on a vigorous electoral reform program.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

547. Serbia's New Government: Turning from Europe

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Serbia finally has a new government but one that is deeply divided between pro-Western and nationalist forces. Facing two difficult issues–Kosovo status and cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY)–its choice is between moving towards European integration or on to a more isolationist path. The government's composition, deep mistrust among many of its members and the parliament's nationalist majority suggest it will follow the second option. Pro-Western forces have suffered a significant setback, the government is vulnerable to manipulation by the security services and oligarchs, and the system of divided responsibility for the security services renders unlikely serious cooperation with the ICTY, especially the arrests of Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic. Although Kosovo independence could destabilise the government, it may surprise and last far longer and prove more stable than expected. The West should prepare for Serbia turning increasingly away from Europe and towards Moscow.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Moscow, and Serbia

548. Sri Lanka's Muslims: Caught in the Crossfire

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Throughout much of the 25-year Sri Lankan conflict, attention has focused on the confrontation between the majority Sinhalese and the minority Tamils. The views of the country's Muslims, who are 8 per cent of the population and see themselves as a separate ethnic group, have largely been ignored. Understanding their role in the conflict and addressing their political aspirations are vital if there is to be a lasting peace settlement. Muslims need to be part of any renewed peace process but with both the government and LTTE intent on continuing the conflict, more immediate steps should be taken to ensure their security and political involvement. These include control of the Karuna faction, more responsive local and national government, improved human rights mechanisms and a serious political strategy that recognises minority concerns in the east.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Asia and Sri Lanka

549. Central Asia's Energy Risks

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Oil and gas are proving as much a burden as a benefit to Central Asia. The three oil and gas producers in the region – Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – are showing signs of the “resource curse” under which energy rich nations fail to thrive or develop distorted, unstable economies. Geography and their history in the Soviet Union have bound them to Russia, through which most of their energy exports must be transported. Moscow is proving to be an unreliable partner for foreign consumers as it has been willing to cut off pipelines to apply commercial or political pressure. Low investment, corruption and gross mismanagement in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan may mean that their supplies run low before they can diversify their links to markets or their economies. Central Asia is likely to see energy create instability within the region; the chances are low that it will be a factor in improving European energy security any time soon.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Soviet Union, Moscow, and Turkmenistan

550. Indonesia: Decentralisation and Local Power Struggles in Maluku

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
South East Maluku (Maluku Tenggara, commonly abbreviated Malra), a district in a remote corner of the Indonesian archipelago, is about to be divided in two, and many residents are worried about the possibility of conflict. Attention by provincial and national officials to latent communal tensions, equitable distribution of development funds and even-handed prosecution of corruption, as well as dissemination by neutral parties of information about the division, would help ensure that all remains peaceful.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia