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521. Peacebuilding in Haiti: Including Haitians from Abroad

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The UN mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) will not stay forever and, in any case, cannot be made responsible for solving Haiti's manifold and deep-seated problems. The absence of adequate professional staff, sufficient financial resources and efficient management at all levels of government has delayed structural reforms and economic and social programs. The country needs institutional strengthening prior to its transition from President René Préval to his successor after the elections in 2011 – also the likely outside limit for MINUSTAH's mandate. Otherwise, political polarisation along traditional cleavages will reappear, as will the risk of conflict. Training civil servants and increasing their salaries are important but insufficient to produce the advances Haitians are demanding. A serious and sustained initiative to include three million Haitians living abroad could overcome historic nationalistic mistrust of outsiders, bring a missing middle class within reach and help Haiti escape its “fragile state” status.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Haiti

522. Kosovo Countdown: A Blueprint for Transition

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Kosovo's transition to the status of conditional, or supervised, independence has been greatly complicated by Russia's firm support of Serbia's refusal to accept that it has lost its one-time province. Recognition of conditional independence has broad international, and certainly European Union (EU) and American, support. Under threat of Moscow's veto, the Security Council will not revoke its Resolution 1244 of 1999 that acknowledged Serbian sovereignty while setting up the UN Mission (UNMIK) to prepare Kosovo for self-government pending a political settlement on its future status. Nor will the Council be allowed to approve the plan for a conditionally independent Kosovo devised by the Secretary-General's special representative, Martti Ahtisaari, earlier this year and authorise the EU-led missions meant to implement that plan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Development, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Kosovo, Moscow, and Serbia

523. Nigeria: Ending Unrest in the Niger Delta

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Niger Delta is again at risk of sliding into chaos. The 29 May 2007 inauguration of new federal and state governments offered an opportunity to resolve longstanding conflicts afflicting the oil-rich, deeply impoverished region. Six months later, the opportunity is unravelling amid new violence and criminality. Decisive action is necessary to stop militant violence and criminal hostage-taking, initiate quick-impact development projects that can build public confidence in President Umaru Yar'Adua's administration and tackle constitutional and legal issues that have fuelled unrest in the region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

524. "Deradicalisation" and Indonesian Prisons

Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Indonesia, like many countries where Islamic jihadi cells have been uncovered, has been experimenting over the last three years with “deradicalisation” programs. While the term is poorly defined and means different things to different people, at its most basic it involves the process of persuading extremists to abandon the use of violence. It can also refer to the process of creating an environment that discourages the growth of radical movements by addressing the basic issues fuelling them, but in general, the broader the definition, the less focused the program created around it. Experience suggests that deradicalisation efforts in Indonesia, however creative, cannot be evaluated in isolation and they are likely to founder unless incorporated into a broader program of prison reform.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

525. Darfur's New Security Reality

Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Darfur conflict has changed radically in the past year and not for the better. While there are many fewer deaths than during the high period of fighting in 2003-2004, it has mutated, the parties have splintered, and the confrontations have multiplied. Violence is again increasing, access for humanitarian agencies is decreasing, international peacekeeping is not yet effective and a political settlement remains far off. The strategy the African Union (AU)/UN mediation has been following cannot cope with this new reality and needs to be revised. After a highly publicised opening ceremony in Sirte, Libya, on 27 October 2007, the new peace talks have been put on hold. The mediation should use this opportunity to reformulate the process, broadening participation and addressing all the conflict's root causes.
Topic:
Security, Genocide, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

526. Serbia: Maintaining Peace in the Presevo Valley

Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Southern Serbia's Albanian-majority Presevo Valley is one of the rare conflict resolution success stories in the former Yugoslavia. Outwardly, it is increasingly normal, with no major incidents in over three years. Yet, tensions linger: massive unemployment is still the single largest problem but the shadow of Kosovo's future status darkens the political landscape. How Kosovo's final status is determined in the next months will have a profound impact. If formal partition or large-scale violence accompanies independence, the peace could unravel; in a worst case scenario, ethnic cleansing in southern Serbia would be accompanied by significant, cross-boundary, two-way refugee flows. All parties – local Albanian politicians, the Serbian government and the international community – need to work with greater urgency on developing the region's economy and ensuring that developments in Kosovo do not disrupt its peaceful progress.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans

527. Pakistan: The Forgotten Conflict in Balochistan

Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Violence continues unabated in Pakistan's strategically important and resource-rich province of Balochistan, where the military government is fighting Baloch militants demanding political and economic autonomy. President Pervez Musharraf's government insists the insurgency is an attempt to seize power by a handful of tribal chiefs bent on resisting economic development. Baloch nationalists maintain it is fuelled by the military's attempts to subdue dissent by force and the alienation caused by the absence of real democracy. Whether or not free and fair national and provincial elections are held later this year or in early 2008 will determine whether the conflict worsens.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Civil War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Asia, and Balochistan

528. Southern Thailand: The Problem with Paramilitaries

Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Thailand's increasing reliance on paramilitary forces and civilian militias is hindering efforts to tackle the insurgency in its majority Muslim southern provinces. A bewildering array of paramilitary organisations works alongside and often in parallel to the regular military and police. There are advantages to using irregular forces. They are quicker and cheaper to train and deploy and tend to have more flexible command structures. Locally recruited volunteers have better local knowledge than troops brought in from outside. But they are also inadequately trained and equipped, confuse already difficult command and control arrangements and appear in some cases to make communal tensions worse. While paramilitaries are likely to continue to be deployed in the South, the government should move toward consolidating security arrangements and, in the longer term, concentrate on improving its regular security forces.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Civil War
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Southern Thailand

529. Zimbabwe: A Regional Solution?

Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Six months before scheduled elections, Zimbabwe is closer than ever to complete collapse. Inflation is between 7,600 per cent (government figures) and 13,000 per cent (independent estimates). Four out of five of the country's twelve million people live below the poverty line and a quarter have fled, mainly to neighbouring countries. A military-led campaign to slash prices has produced acute food and fuel shortages, and conducting any business is becoming almost impossible. An initiative launched by the regional intergovernmental organisation, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), to facilitate a negotiated political solution offers the only realistic chance to escape a crisis that increasingly threatens to destabilise the region. But SADC must resolve internal differences about how hard to press into retirement Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe's 83-year-old president and liberation hero, and the wider international community needs to give it full support.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

530. Bolivia's New Constitution: Avoiding Violent Confrontation

Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Bolivia is moving dangerously toward renewed confrontation and violence as the government of President Evo Morales and his Movement toward Socialism (MAS) party seek to embed sweeping state reforms in a new constitution. Their proposals are being sharply criticised in the Constituent Assembly (CA) by opposition leaders representing the eastern lowlands and the urban middle classes, and the dispute is widening the breach in an already polarised country. The CA's life has been extended to 14 December 2007 but time is not on delegates' side. In the next four months, Bolivia's political leaders need to engage in a wide-ranging dialogue to reach national consensus on fundamental issues.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia