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331. Turkey And The Middle East: Ambitions And Constraints

Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Turkey is launching initiative after ambitious initiative aimed at stabilising the Middle East. Building on the successes of its normalisation with Syria and Iraq, it is facilitating efforts to reduce conflicts, expanding visafree travel, ramping up trade, integrating infrastructure, forging strategic relationships and engaging in multilateral regional platforms. For some, this new activism is evidence that Turkey is turning from its traditional allies in Europe and the United States. In fact, its increased role in the Middle East is a complement to and even dependent on its ties to the West.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Islam, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

332. Congo: l'enlisement du projet démocratique

Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
La consolidation de la démocratie en République démocratique du Congo (RDC) est entravée dans presque toutes ses dimensions et le régime congolais reste fragile. Lorsque Joseph Kabila est devenu le premier président élu démocratiquement en 2006, la communauté internationale a considéré cette élection comme une avancée majeure du processus de paix. Aujourd'hui, l'équilibre des pouvoirs est quasiment inexistant. Le cabinet présidentiel a pris l'ascendant sur le gouvernement, le parlement et le pouvoir judiciaire. Les libertés fondamentales sont fréquemment menacées et des réformes institutionnelles essentielles – la décentralisation et la réforme du secteur de la sécurité – n'ont pas significativement progressé.
Topic:
Democratization and Governance
Political Geography:
Democratic Republic of the Congo

333. Indonesia: Jihadi Surprise in Aceh

Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The discovery in late February 2010 of a jihadi training camp in Aceh came as a surprise in three ways. It revealed a major mutation in Indonesian jihadi ranks: a new coalition had emerged that rejected both Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the best-known such organisation in the region, and the more violent splinter group led until his death in September 2009 by Noordin Top. It had chosen Aceh as a base, despite the antipathy of Acehnese to radical Islam. And it was led by Dulmatin, one of South East Asia's most wanted terrorists, whom officials in both Indonesia and the Philippines believed was in Mindanao.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Terrorism, International Affairs, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

334. LRA: A Regional Strategy beyond Killing Kony

Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) has become a regional problem that requires a regional solution. Operation Lightning Thunder, launched in December 2008, is the Ugandan army's latest attempt to crush militarily the one- time northern Ugandan rebel group. It has been a failure. After the initial attack, small groups of LRA fighters dispersed in the Democratic Republic of Congo (Congo), South Sudan and the Central African Republic (CAR), where they survive by preying on civilians. National security forces are too weak to protect their own people, while the Ugandan army, with U.S. support, is focused on hunting Joseph Kony, the group's leader. The Ugandans have eroded the LRA's numbers and made its communications more difficult. But LRA fighters, though disorganised, remain a terrible danger to civilians in this mostly ungoverned frontier zone. National armies, the UN and civilians themselves need to pool intelligence and coordinate their efforts in new ways if they are to end the LRA once and for all.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, United Nations, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, United States, and South Sudan

335. Kyrgyzstan: A Hollow Regime Collapses

Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A swift, violent rebellion swept into the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek in early April 2010, sparked by anger at painful utility price increases and the corruption that was the defining characteristic of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's rule. In less than two days the president had fled. Some 85 people were killed and the centre of the capital was looted. The thirteen-member provisional government now faces a daunting series of challenges. Bakiyev leaves be- hind a bankrupt state hollowed out by corruption and crime. Economic failure and collapsing infrastructure have generated deep public resentment. If the provisional government moves fast to assert its power, the risks of major long-term violence are containable: there are no signs of extensive support for Bakiyev or of a North-South split. The speed with which the Bakiyev administration collapsed is a salutary reminder of the risks of over emphasising Western security concerns in framing policy towards the region.
Topic:
International Affairs, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kyrgyzstan

336. Tipping Point? Palestinians and the Search for a New Strategy

Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
To those familiar with the rhythms of Israeli-Palestinian negotiation, this has been a year of surprises. Palestinians, suffering most from the status quo, so most in need of a resolution, balk at resuming talks even as Israel expresses eagerness. In Obama, they have a president more willing to engage and to confront Israel, yet they have denied him the chance to advance talks. Seventeen years after Oslo, the best he can do is get the parties to talk indirectly – and even then, not without overcoming huge Palestinian reluctance. What is going on? The Palestinian approach may seem tactically suspect or politically self-defeating but is not without logic. It is rooted in almost two decades of unsuccessful U.S.-sponsored bilateral negotiations and manifested in embryonic effort s to change the balance of power with Israel. It is premature to speak of a new Palestinian strategy but not to respond and rectify past flaws. After an often perplexing, ineffective start, the U.S. seems poised for a more fundamental policy review involving the presentation of American ideas to resolve the conflict. Done right and at the right time, it would be welcome.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, America, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

337. Côte d'Ivoire: sécuriser le processus électoral

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Already delayed six times, Côte d'Ivoire's presidential election is still some way off. Over two months after President Gbagbo dissolved the Independent Electoral Commission (Commission Électorale Indépendante, CEI) and the government, preparations are at a virtual standstill. The process of electoral identification already carries serious risks of violence. Armed groups and militias, the resurgence of xenophobic language and a challenging socio-economic situation make for an explosive environment, threatening the stability of this key West African country. Unless its politicians urgently meet the challenge of escalating tensions, accelerate electoral preparations and desist from hate speech, and unless regional, UN and other international partners establish the operational, political and security mechanisms necessary to prevent violence, the peace process could very well collapse, with dramatic consequences for the country and its neighbours. Côte d'Ivoire's civil war erupted in September 2002, when a section of the army attempted a coup d'Etat. The coup failed, but the insurgent soldiers took control of the northern part of the country. With the arrival of young intellectuals and under the leadership of former student leader Guillaume Soro, they articulated grievances that northerners were treated as second class citizens. An on-and-off war continued until the signing of the Ouagadougou Political Agreement in March 2007, which considerably calmed the situation. Since the middle of 2009, however, tensions have risen again over the electoral process and the question of Ivorian identity and nationality.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Politics, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

338. Cameroon: Fragile State?

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Cameroon's apparent stability in a turbulent region cannot be taken for granted. The co-option of elites through the distribution of state largesse, and the emigration of many educated young people provide a certain safety valve for tensions, but the failure of reform and continued poor governance mean people no longer believe in the rule of law or peaceful political change. Multiple risks of conflict exist in the build-up to presidential elections in 2011 and beyond. This background report, Crisis Group's first on Cameroon, analyses the historical roots of the current impasse.
Topic:
Political Violence, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

339. Lebanon's Politics: The Sunni Community and Hariri's Future Current

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The June 2009 swearing in as prime minister of Saad Hariri, leader of the Sunni Future Current movement, marks a turning point, the end of a period of exceptional domestic political turbulence and regional tensions that began with the 2005 murder of his father, Rafic; led to institutional paralysis; and culminated with the violent May 2008 showdown between government and opposition. It also presents the new leader with a host of novel challenges. The man who took the helm of a once deeply divided Sunni community must discard much of what enabled his rise, if he is to succeed now that he is in power. With Hizbollah, the principal Shiite movement, he must move away from the sectarianism that has become Lebanon's political stock-and-trade. The Future Current should initiate the process of becoming a more genuine, institutionalised party, breaking from the clientelism that will otherwise inhibit the prime minister's transition from community leader to statesman. And Hariri must continue to navigate the difficult normalisation with Syria, over coming deep mistrust among his constituency toward Damascus.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, Governance, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

340. A Force in Fragments: Reconstituting the Afghan National Army

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For nearly a decade, the Afghan military has been promoted as the cornerstone of counterinsurgency in the country. Billed as a rare success story in a conflict with few bright spots, the Afghan armed forces will undoubtedly prove pivotal to stabilising Afghanistan. Yet nine years after the fall of the Taliban, there appears to be little agreement between the government of President Hamid Karzai and its international backers on what kind of army the country needs, how to build it or which elements of the insurgency the Afghan army should be fighting. Persistent structural flaws meanwhile have undermined the military's ability to operate independently. Ethnic frictions and political factionalism among high-level players in the Ministry of Defence (MOD) and the general staff have also stunted the army's growth. As a result, the army is a fragmented force, serving disparate interests, and far from attaining the unified national character needed to confront numerous security threats. There is a strong need to strengthen civilian input into military development, confront corruption and factionalism within the MOD and general staff and to place sustainability of the armed forces at the forefront of Afghanistan's national security strategy.
Topic:
Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Taliban