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281. Le Nord-ouest du Tchad: la prochaine zone à haut risque ?

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Depuis plus de cinq ans, alors que la rébellion armée de l'Est du Tchad et la crise du Darfour focalisent l'attention, le Nord-ouest du pays a suscité peu d'intérêts. Cependant, l'ampleur de plus en plus grande du trafic international de drogues et du terrorisme dans la bande sahélo-saharienne, l'émergence d'un islamisme combattant dans les pays voisins, l'intensification des ressentiments intercommunautaires et l'érosion des mécanismes de justice traditionnelle, la sous-administration et l'abandon qui caractérisent la politique gouvernementale à l'égard de cette région, risquent de devenir des facteurs de déstabilisation. Les autorités tchadiennes doivent changer de mode de gouvernance dans cette région et désamorcer les différentes sources de tensions ou les risques de déstabilisation avant que ceux-ci n'atteignent un seuil critique.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, Insurgency, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

282. The Communist Insurgency in the Philippines: Tactics and Talks

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Philippine government is unable to control and develop large parts of the country because of the longstanding communist insurgency. The conflict has lasted more than 40 years and killed tens of thousands of combatants and civilians. Planning their attacks and securing weapons and funds locally, the insurgents have strong roots in the different regions where they operate and have proved hard to defeat. The government's counter-insurgency strategy has diminished their numbers but has not been able to destroy the organisation. Neither side will win militarily. As peace negotiations resume under the Benigno Aquino administration, the parties to the talks should immediately commit to making existing human rights monitoring mechanisms work, while they try to reach the more difficult long-term goal of a durable political settlement.
Topic:
Human Rights
Political Geography:
Philippines

283. Myanmar's Post-Election Landscape

Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The November 2010 elections in Myanmar were not free and fair and the country has not escaped authoritarian rule. Predictably, in such a tightly controlled poll, the regime's own Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won a landslide victory leaving the military elite still in control. Together with the quarter of legislative seats reserved for soldiers, this means there will be little political space for opposition members in parliament. The new government that has been formed, and which will assume power in the coming weeks, also reflects the continued dominance of the old order with the president and one of the two vice presidents drawn from its ranks and a number of cabinet ministers recycled.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, and Myanmar

284. Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (II): Yemen between Reform and Revolution

Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Even before the popular wave from Tunisia and Egypt reached Yemen, President Saleh's regime faced daunting challenges. In the north, it is battling the Huthi rebellion, in the south, an ever-growing secessionist movement. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is showing mounting signs of activism. Sanaa's political class is locked in a two-year battle over electoral and constitutional reforms; behind the scenes, a fierce competition for post-Saleh spoils is underway. Economic conditions for average Yemenis are dire and worsening. Now this. There is fear the protest movement could push the country to the brink and unleash broad civil strife. But it also could, and should, be a wake-up call, a catalyst for swift, far-reaching reforms leading to genuine power-sharing and accountable, representative institutions. The opposition, reformist ruling party members and civil society activists will have to work boldly together to make it happen. The international community's role is to promote national dialogue, prioritise political and economic development aid and ensure security aid is not used to suppress opposition.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Egypt, and Tunisia

285. The Philippines: Back to the Table, Warily, in Mindanao

Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Peace talks between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) are back on track, with one round of talks in Kuala Lumpur in February 2011 and another scheduled for late April. The obstacles to achieving a final peace are huge, but the administration of President Benigno S. “Noynoy” Aquino III has at least brought some fresh air to the process. A new government peace panel seems determined to find a way out of a negotiator's nightmare: multiple parties engaged in parallel and sometimes contradictory talks; powerful potential spoilers; and ethnic divisions, feuding clans and divergent political interests among the Bangsamoro – the Muslims of Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago – that make unity within the MILF's own constituency elusive.
Topic:
Islam, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Israel, Philippines, and Kuala Lumpur

286. Gaza: The Next Israeli-Palestinian War?

Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Will the next Middle East conflagration involve Israelis and Palestinians? After the serious escalation of the past week in which eight Gazans, including children, were killed in a single day, and the 23 March 2011 bombing in Jerusalem, that took the life of one and wounded dozens, there is real reason to worry. The sharp deterioration on this front is not directly related, nor is it in any way similar to the events that have engulfed the Middle East and North Africa. But the overall context of instability and uncertainty undoubtedly has made a volatile situation even more so. Israelis' anxiety is rising and with it the fear that outside parties might seek to provoke hostilities to divert attention from domestic problems and shift the focus back to Israel. Hamas has been emboldened by regional events and is therefore less likely to back down from a challenge. The combination, as recent days have shown, has proven combustible.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Jerusalem, Gaza, Arab Countries, and North Africa

287. Reforming Pakistan's Electoral System

Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Electoral rigging has hampered Pakistan's democratic development, eroded political stability and contributed to the breakdown of the rule of law. Facing domestic pressure for democracy, successive military governments rigged national, provincial and local polls to ensure regime survival. These elections yielded unrepresentative parliaments that have rubber-stamped extensive constitutional and political reforms to centralise power with the military and to empower its civilian allies. Undemocratic rule has also suppressed other civilian institutions, including the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), which is responsible for holding elections to the national and four provincial assemblies, and local governments. With the next general election in 2013 – if the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)-led government completes its full five-year term – the ruling party and its parliamentary opposition, as well as the international community, should focus on ensuring a transparent, orderly political transition through free, fair and transparent elections.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Asia

288. Radical Islam in Gaza

Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The recent Israel-Hamas escalation returns a spotlight to Gaza and the Islamist movement's relationship with more militant organisations. Gaza arouses multiple concerns: does Hamas seeks to impose religious law; has its purported Islamisation stimulated growth of Salafi-Jihadi groups; and will al-Qaeda offshoots find a foothold there? Hamas faces competition from more radical Islamist groups, though their numbers are few, organisation poor, achievements against Israel so far minor and chances of threatening Gaza's government slight. The significance of Gaza's Salafi-Jihadis is less military capability than constraints they impose on Hamas: they are an ideological challenge; they appeal to members of its military wing, a powerful constituency; through attacks within and from Gaza, they threaten security; by criticising Hamas for not fighting Israel or implementing Sharia, they exert pressure for more militancy and Islamisation. The policy of isolating Gaza and ignoring Hamas exacerbates this problem. As the international community seeks new ways to address political Islam in the Arab upheaval's wake, Gaza is not the worst place to start.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza

289. Central Asia: Migrants and the Economic Crisis

Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The economic crisis has caused millions of migrant labourers from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan to lose their jobs in the boom economies of Russia and Kazakhstan. Remittances that kept their relatives afloat have plummeted and many migrants have returned home to certain destitution, putting weak Central Asian governments under severe strain. In Tajikistan half the labour force is without work, while Kyrgyzstan suffers from massive rural unemployment. Before the crisis hit, up to five million people from these countries left home for Russia and Kazakhstan to take on poorly paid and unskilled jobs, often the unpleasant tasks that local people no longer wished to do. Yet at home they were viewed with respect: the most daring members of their society, who were willing to take a jump into the unknown to pull themselves and their families out of poverty. Remittances also boosted their home countries' economic data, allowing governments with little ability or interest in creating jobs to claim a modest degree of success. By 2008 remittances were providing the equivalent of half Tajikistan's gross domestic product (GDP), a quarter of Kyrgyzstan's GDP, and an eighth of Uzbekistan's.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

290. Nepal: Peace and Justice

Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Failure to address the systematic crimes committed during Nepal's ten-year civil war is threatening the peace process. There has been not a single prosecution in civilian courts for any abuses. The cultures of impunity that enabled the crimes in the first place have remained intact, further increasing public distrust and incentives to resort to violence. The immediate priorities should be prosecutions of the most serious crimes, investigation of disappearances and action to vet state and Maoist security force members.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Crime, Human Rights, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Asia and Nepal