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221. Election Reform in Pakistan

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The stabilisation of Pakistan's democratic transition will depend to a considerable extent on the manner in which the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) conducts the next general elections. These are due when the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)-led coalition government ends its fiveyear term in March 2013, or earlier if it so decides. Rigged elections and distortions of the process by military regimes or military-controlled governments have left the ECP in an advanced state of institutional decay. If the next elections are to result in the smooth transfer of power from one elected government to another and be widely perceived as legitimate and democratic by all stakeholders, it is imperative that the ECP be truly independent, impartial and effective.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

222. Indonesia: Defying the State

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Local institutions in Indonesia, empowered by decentralisation, are defying the country's highest courts with impunity, undermining judicial authority and allowing local conflicts to fester. District councils, mayors and regional election commissions have learned that there is little cost to ignoring court rulings on electoral or religious disputes, pandering instead to local constituencies and pressure groups. Decisive leadership from the president could make a difference; instead, slow and ineffective responses from Jakarta brew more insubordination. If the regions become overconfident in their new powers and the central state continues to respond weakly, this lack of commitment to rule of law could encourage more conflict as the national political temperature rises ahead of the 2014 presidential election.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Law Enforcement, and Law
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

223. Popular Protests in North Africa and the Middle East (III): The Bahrain Revolt

Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Manama's crackdown and Saudi Arabia's military intervention are dangerous moves that could stamp out hopes for peaceful transition in Bahrain and turn a mass movement for democratic reform into an armed conflict, while regionalising an internal political struggle. They could also exacerbate sectarian tensions not only in Bahrain or the Gulf but across the region. Along with other member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Saudi Arabia purportedly is responding to dual fears: that the takeover would be tantamount to an Iranian one. Both are largely unfounded. It also is concerned protests might inspire similar movements among its own Eastern Province Shiites, oblivious that its involvement is likelier to provoke than deter them. Bahrain's brutal crackdown and Saudi interference fan flames both want to extinguish. The most effective response to the radical regime change threat or greater Iranian influence is not violent suppression of peaceful protests but political reform. Time is running short and trends are in the wrong direction.
Topic:
Regime Change and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, North Africa, Bahrain, and Manama

224. Timor-Leste: Reconciliation and Return from Indonesia

Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The unresolved status of thousands of former refugees who fled across the border following a 1999 vote for independence remains a challenge to Timor-Leste's long-term stability. Many were never well integrated into host communities and are being drawn back across the border in small but increasing numbers by relative economic and political stability in the new state. These returns should be encouraged by both countries as a good opportunity to promote reconciliation between the two communities divided by the border. Doing so will expose the costs of impunity for the violence that surrounded the 1999 referendum and highlight the failure to implement practical recommendations from its two truth commissions, the CAVR and the Commission on Truth and Friendship. Timor-Leste's leadership may yet decide that some form of amnesty is the best way forward, but the country cannot afford to further delay broad discussion on solutions.
Topic:
Political Economy
Political Geography:
South Asia and Indonesia

225. Indonesian Jihadism: Small Groups, Big Plans

Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Violent extremism in Indonesia increasingly is taking the form of small groups acting independently of large jihadi organisations. This is in part a response to effective law enforcement that has resulted in widespread arrests and structural weakening of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), Jama'ah Ansharut Tauhid (JAT) and other organisations accused of links to terrorism. But it is also the result of ideological shifts that favour “individual” over “organisational” jihad and low-cost, small-scale targeted killings over mass casualty attacks that inadvertently kill Muslims. The suicide bombing inside a police station mosque on 15 April 2011 and a spate of letter bombs delivered in Jakarta in mid-March are emblematic of the shift. The government needs urgently to develop prevention strategies to reduce the likelihood that more such groups will emerge.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
South Asia and Indonesia

226. Thailand: The Calm before Another Storm?

Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nearly a year after the crackdown on anti-establishment demonstrations, Thailand is preparing for a general election. Despite government efforts to suppress the Red Shirt movement, support remains strong and the deep political divide has not gone away. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's roadmap for reconciliation has led almost nowhere. Although there have been amateurish bomb attacks carried out by angry Red Shirts since the crackdown, fears of an underground battle have not materialised. On the other side, the Yellow Shirts have stepped up their nationalist campaigns against the Democrat Party-led government that their earlier rallies had helped bring to power. They are now claiming elections are useless in “dirty” politics and urging Thais to refuse to vote for any of the political parties. Even if the elections are free, fair and peaceful, it will still be a challenge for all sides to accept the results. If another coalition is pushed together under pressure from the royalist establishment, it will be a rallying cry for renewed mass protests by the Red Shirts that could plunge Thailand into more violent confrontation.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Asia

227. Nepal's Fitful Peace Process

Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nepal is entering a new phase in its fitful peace process, in which its so-called "logical conclusion" is in sight: the integration and rehabilitation of Maoist combatants and the introduction of a new constitution. The Maoists, the largest party, are back in government in a coalition led by the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist), UML party. Negotiations, although fraught, are on with the second-largest party, the Nepali Congress (NC), to join. Agreement is being reached on constitutional issues and discussions continue on integration. None of the actors are ramping up for serious confrontation and few want to be seen as responsible for the collapse of the constitution-writing process underway in the Constituent Assembly (CA). But success depends on parties in opposition keeping tactical threats to dissolve the CA to a minimum, the government keeping them engaged, and the parties in government stabilising their own precariously divided houses. It will also require the Maoists to take major steps to dismantle their army.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, and Nepal

228. SOULEVEMENTS POPULAIRES EN AFRIQUE DU NORD ET AU MOYEN-ORIENT (IV) : LA VOIE TUNISIENNE

Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
La Tunisie est le pays où tout a commencé. C'est égale- ment le pays où la transition démocratique présente au- jourd'hui les plus fortes chances de succès. Les raisons en sont multiples, mais la plus significative réside dans l'ac- tivisme politique et la mobilisation sociale qui ont marqué l'histoire contemporaine du pays et que des décennies de répression n'ont pu mettre à mal. Cette tradition aura for- tement aidé la nation pendant le soulèvement, lors duquel travailleurs, sans-emplois, avocats et membres de la classe moyenne conjuguèrent leurs forces en un vaste mouve- ment. Elle devra à nouveau être mise à contribution alors que la Tunisie affronte des défis majeurs : comment satisfaire à la fois l'envie d'un changement profond et l'impé- ratif de stabilité ; comment intégrer l'islamisme dans le nouveau cadre politique ; et comment remédier aux immenses problèmes socio-économiques qui furent à l'origine de la révolution politique mais qu'en elle-même cette révolution est incapable de résoudre.
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

229. Post-quake Haiti: Security Depends on Resettlement and Development

Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A year and a half after the Western Hemisphere's deadliest earthquake devastated Haiti, 650,000 victims still wait for permanent housing in more than 1,000 unstable emergency camps dotting Port-au-Prince. The first storms of the 2011 hurricane season have flooded 30 camps, forcing tent dwellers to flee and killing 28 persons nationally. Michel Martelly, who replaced René Préval as president on 14 May, faces an immediate crisis in the growing frustrations of the victims in the camps and those with near identical unmet basic needs who remain in the urban slums. Forced evictions, some violent, along with the reappearance of criminal gangs in those camps and slums, add to the volatile mix. Adopting, communicating and setting in motion a comprehensive resettlement strategy, with full input from the victims and local communities, is the first critical reconstruction challenge he must meet in order to restore stability. It will also test the capacity for common international action beyond emergency relief after a year of disturbing divisions within the UN country team and among donors over resettlement strategy.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Economics, Poverty, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:
United Nations and Caribbean

230. India and Sri Lanka after the LTTE

Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
India has long been the country with the greatest influence over Sri Lanka but its policies to encourage the government there towards a sustainable peace are not working. Despite India's active engagement and unprecedented financial assistance, the Sri Lankan government has failed to make progress on pressing post-war challenges. Government actions and the growing political power of the military are instead generating new grievances that increase the risk of an eventual return to violence. To support a sustainable and equitable post-war settlement in Sri Lanka and limit the chances of another authoritarian and military-dominated government on its borders, India needs to work more closely with the United States, the European Union and Japan, encouraging them to send the message that Sri Lanka's current direction is not acceptable. It should press for the demilitarisation of the north, a return to civil administration there and in the east and the end of emergency rule throughout the country.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Civil War, Armed Struggle, Bilateral Relations, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, South Asia, India, and Sri Lanka