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61. Zimbabwe: What Next?

Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the aftermath of the deeply flawed March 2002 presidential election, Zimbabwe has dropped off the radar screen of most policy-makers and media but its crisis is deepening: the ruling ZANU-PF party and the government are systematically using violence to intimidate the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and civil society in order to punish and compel them to accept the results; the economy is further deteriorating as foreign investment and food both become scarce commodities; with regional drought compounding the land seizure crisis, UN agencies warn of possible famine; and as the opposition considers mass protests, the prospect of serious internal conflict is becoming imminent, with grave implications for the stability of the wider Southern African region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

62. Storm Clouds Over Sun City: The Urgent Need To Recast The Congolese Peace Process

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After seven weeks of negotiations at Sun City, a partial agreement was reached on 19 April 2002 between Jean-Pierre Bemba's MLC (Mouvement pour la libération du Congo) and the government of Joseph Kabila. The agreement represents the end of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue in the context of the Lusaka peace accords. However confusion reigns. The negotiations are not complete and the future of the Democratic Republic of Congo remains uncertain.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

63. Somalia: Countering Terrorism in a Failed State

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For the first time since the last UN mission left the country in 1995, there is considerable international interest in Somalia, centred on the possibility that the country may become part of the global war against terrorism. The U.S. government suspects that al-Qaeda may have used Somalia as a staging area or safe haven in the past and remains concerned – though less than in the immediate aftermath of the 11 September 2001 attacks – that it could do so again because of the country's highly fragmented internal security situation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Terrorism, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, United Nations, North Africa, and Somalia

64. Capturing the Moment: Sudan's Peace Process in the Balance

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sudan's window of opportunity threatens to become a missed opportunity if the peace process is not revitalised in the near future. Escalation of fighting around the oil fields, increasing use by the government of helicopter gunships against civilian as well as military targets, and indecision surrounding the nature of wider international engagement all put at risk Sudan's best chance for peace since the latest phase of civil war began nearly nineteen years ago. The parties continue to signal that they are ready to negotiate seriously. The international community, and in particular the United States, must seize this opportunity to revitalise the peace process before the two sides recommit themselves to resolving Africa's longest conflict on the battlefield.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Sudan, and North Africa

65. Zimbabwe At The Crossroads: Transition Or Conflict?

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Despite broad international condemnation and a tremendous thirst among the people of Zimbabwe for change, the Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) government succeeded in systematically manipulating the March 2002 election process to ensure another six-year term for President Robert Mugabe. The strategic use of state violence and extra-legal electoral tinkering authorised by President Mugabe effectively thwarted the will of the people from being heard.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

66. God, Oil and Country: Changing the Logic of War in Sudan

Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Sudan's long civil war rages on, claiming a terrible toll of death and displacement .While the decades of destruction are too complex to trace back to a single source, several forces propel the war, principally disputes over religion , resources , governance and self-determination . Concentration of power in a small group of competing elites that has not granted the majority of Sudanese broader economic and political rights has only deepened the country's considerable geographic, religious cultural and ethnic divisions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Sudan and North Africa

67. All Bark and No Bite? The International Response to Zimbabwe's Crisis?

Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The 9-10 March 2002 presidential election is the decisive date for Zimbabwe's intensifying crisis. With political violence escalating, new repressive legislation has highlighted the government's efforts to clamp down on the media, the judicial system, civil society and the political opposition in order to retain power by any means. International action, not merely further expressions of concern, is needed before time runs out on the possibility of conducting the freer and fairer election that is the best chance to head off destabilisation that would inevitably cross the country's borders and affect all southern Africa.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Zimbabwe

68. Zimbabwe's Election: The Stakes for Southern Africa

Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since the intensification of Zimbabwe's political, economic and humanitarian crisis following defeat of a government-sponsored constitution in a national referendum nearly two years ago, the International Crisis Group (ICG) has documented the escalation of state-sponsored violence and erosion of the rule of law. ICG has called for robust action by the international community, especially Zimbabwe's neighbours and partners in the regional Southern African Development Community (SADC). As the March presidential election draws nearer, and state violence, intimidation and rigging intensify, action by South Africa and its SADC partners becomes more urgent. Zimbabwe's neighbours have a major opportunity to respond more forcefully to the growing crisis at a Summit in Malawi on 13-14 January 2002 and its aftermath. This briefing paper updates the regional dimensions of the crisis, and analyses SADC's policy options, with a special emphasis on its most powerful member, South Africa.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
South Africa and Zimbabwe

69. Macedonia: War on Hold

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Macedonian and Albanian political leaders signed a political agreement – hailed by its Western midwives as a peace agreement – on 13 August 2001. NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson and the European Union's High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, flew to Skopje to attend the signing ceremony. But the strange context of the signing showed just how implausible it is that, without further extraordinary efforts, the agreement will actually provide a workable way to keep multiethnic Macedonia out of civil war. Details of the agreement had been hammered out by 8 August in Ohrid, a resort town chosen for the negotiations because it was some distance away from the latest fighting. Signature was delayed five days, however, while Macedonian government troops and ethnic Albanian rebels engaged in the deadliest series yet of tit-for-tat retaliations. Terms of the agreement were withheld from the public lest they provoke violent responses from hardliners on both sides. The ceremony, when it finally occurred, was carried out almost furtively, in a small room of the President's residence, without live television.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

70. A Fair Exchange: Aid to Yugoslavia for Regional Stability

Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The donors' conference for the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), planned for 29 June 2001 in Brussels, will set the pattern of international economic assistance to Belgrade for the next year or more. In return for substantial donor support, the international community should require the FRY to undertake a number of specific steps that are essential for increasing regional stability.
Topic:
Debt, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Brussels