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101. Pakistan: The Forgotten Conflict in Balochistan

Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Violence continues unabated in Pakistan's strategically important and resource-rich province of Balochistan, where the military government is fighting Baloch militants demanding political and economic autonomy. President Pervez Musharraf's government insists the insurgency is an attempt to seize power by a handful of tribal chiefs bent on resisting economic development. Baloch nationalists maintain it is fuelled by the military's attempts to subdue dissent by force and the alienation caused by the absence of real democracy. Whether or not free and fair national and provincial elections are held later this year or in early 2008 will determine whether the conflict worsens.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Civil War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Asia, and Balochistan

102. Zimbabwe: A Regional Solution?

Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Six months before scheduled elections, Zimbabwe is closer than ever to complete collapse. Inflation is between 7,600 per cent (government figures) and 13,000 per cent (independent estimates). Four out of five of the country's twelve million people live below the poverty line and a quarter have fled, mainly to neighbouring countries. A military-led campaign to slash prices has produced acute food and fuel shortages, and conducting any business is becoming almost impossible. An initiative launched by the regional intergovernmental organisation, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), to facilitate a negotiated political solution offers the only realistic chance to escape a crisis that increasingly threatens to destabilise the region. But SADC must resolve internal differences about how hard to press into retirement Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe's 83-year-old president and liberation hero, and the wider international community needs to give it full support.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

103. Bolivia's New Constitution: Avoiding Violent Confrontation

Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Bolivia is moving dangerously toward renewed confrontation and violence as the government of President Evo Morales and his Movement toward Socialism (MAS) party seek to embed sweeping state reforms in a new constitution. Their proposals are being sharply criticised in the Constituent Assembly (CA) by opposition leaders representing the eastern lowlands and the urban middle classes, and the dispute is widening the breach in an already polarised country. The CA's life has been extended to 14 December 2007 but time is not on delegates' side. In the next four months, Bolivia's political leaders need to engage in a wide-ranging dialogue to reach national consensus on fundamental issues.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

104. Reforming Afghanistan's Police

Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Policing goes to the very heart of state building, since a credible national institution that helps provide security and justice for the population is central to government legitimacy. However Afghanistan's citizens often view the police more as a source of fear than of security. Instead of emphasising their coercive powers, reform should focus on accountability, ethnic representation and professionalism, along with an urgent need to depoliticise and institutionalise appointments and procedures. It is counter-productive to treat police as an auxiliary fighting unit in battling the insurgency, as has been happening with increasing frequency in the troubled south. Afghanistan, like any other democracy, requires police service more than police force.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

105. Burundi: Finalising Peace with the FNL

Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
En quelques années à peine, le Burundi a accompli des progrès substantiels en matière d'apaisement des relations interethniques et de démocratisation de son espace politique. Ces avancées ont été rendues possibles grâce à la volonté des Burundais eux-mêmes, qui ont su agir dans un esprit d'unité et de compromis mais aussi grâce à un fort investissement de la communauté internationale dans le processus d'Arusha. L'intégration au sein des nouvelles forces nationales de défense et de sécurité des troupes de l'ancien gouvernement et des anciens rebelles du Conseil national pour la défense de la démocratie- Forces pour la défense de la démocratie (CNDD-FDD) a contribué, de manière significative, à consolider la paix. Toutefois, le processus de paix reste fragile. Pour tourner la page des années de guerre civile, renforcer les institutions démocratiques et poser les bases d'un véritable État de droit, il est nécessaire de conclure un véritable accord de paix avec le dernier mouvement rebelle encore actif sur le territoire, le Parti pour la libération du peuple hutu – Forces nationales de libération (PALIPEHUTU-FNL) d'Agathon Rwasa. Ce mouvement n'est plus en mesure de relancer une guerre dans le pays mais il reste une source d'insécurité dans plusieurs provinces de l'Ouest où il est fortement implanté.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi

106. Congo: Consolidating the Peace

Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo were a milestone in the peace process but much remains to be done to consolidate the gains. A return to full-scale war is unlikely but violence in Bas-Congo and Kinshasa in early 2007 with over 400 people killed and renewed threats of war in the Kivus show the country's fragility. The new government's relations with the opposition have deteriorated sharply, raising the possibility of a drift to authoritarianism and urban unrest in the West, while militias continue to clash with the weak national army in the East, displacing hundreds of thousands of civilians each year, many of whom succumb to hunger and disease. The elected democratic institutions need to promote transparent and accountable governance, which should in turn stimulate continuous international support as opposed to gradual disengagement. A new partnership arrangement is urgently required between the government and the international community to push forward on deep governance reforms.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

107. WHERE IS IRAQ HEADING? LESSONS FROM BASRA

Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Amid the media and military focus on Baghdad, another major Iraqi city – Basra – is being overlooked. Yet Basra's experience carries important lessons for the capital and nation as a whole. Coalition forces have already implemented a security plan there, Operation Sinbad, which was in many ways similar to Baghdad's current military surge. What U.S. commanders call “clear, hold and build”, their British counterparts earlier had dubbed “clear, hold and civil reconstruction”. And, as in the capital, the putative goal was to pave the way for a takeover by Iraqi forces. Far from being a model to be replicated, however, Basra is an example of what to avoid. With renewed violence and instability, Basra illustrates the pitfalls of a transitional process that has led to collapse of the state apparatus and failed to build legitimate institutions. Fierce intra-Shiite fighting also disproves the simplistic view of Iraq neatly divided between three homogenous communities.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Civil War, and War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

108. Indonesia: Jemaah Islamiyah's Current Status

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In late March 2007, arrests by Densus 88, the police counter-terror unit, netted seven detainees in Central and East Java (an eighth was killed); a huge cache of explosives and weaponry; and documents that seemed to suggest a new military structure for Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), the region's largest jihadist organisation. The arrests followed directly from information obtained from operations in Poso, Central Sulawesi, in late January.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia

109. Abkhazia: Ways Forward

Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Fourteen years of negotiation, led alternately by the UN and Russia, have done little to resolve the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict. There have been some successes on the ground: ceasefire violations are rare, approximately 45,000 internally displaced (IDP) Georgians have returned to homes in the Gali region, the two sides cooperate on operating the Inguri power plant, and a strategic railway through Abkhazia may restart. But the sharp deterioration in Russian-Georgian relations and a Georgian military adventure in the Kodori valley have contributed to a freeze in diplomacy over Abkhazia since mid-2006. In the absence of a new initiative, new violence is a real possibility. Because prospects are bleak for an early comprehensive settlement of the key political issues, in particular final status, the sides and international facilitators should shift their focus in 2007 to building confidence and cooperation in areas where there are realistic opportunities.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Georgia, and Abkhazia

110. Israel/Hizbollah/Lebanon: Avoiding Renewed Conflict

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
UN Security Council Resolution 1701 halted the month- long fighting between Israel and Hizbollah but did little to resolve the underlying conflict and, if poorly handled, could help reignite it. The resolution has held remarkably well, with only limited violations. However, the temptation by either party to overreach could trigger renewed fighting. The greatest threats would be attempts by Israel or UN forces (UNIFIL) to use 1701 as a blunt means of disarming Hizbollah in the south or by Hizbollah to test UNIFIL's resolve. 1701 should be seen as a transitory instrument that can stabilise the border by containing both sides' military impulses until bolder action is taken to address both domestic Lebanese matters (reforming and democratising the political and electoral systems; building a strong sovereign state and army; resolving the question of Hizbollah's armaments) and, especially, regional issues (in particular re-launching the Syrian track and engaging Iran). In short the international community must be modest in implementing 1701 for as long as it is not prepared to be ambitious in its regional diplomatic efforts.
Topic:
Security, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria