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41. The Arab-Israeli Conflict: To Reach a Lasting Peace

Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
If there is a silver lining in the recent succession of catastrophic developments in the Middle East, it is that they may impart renewed momentum to the search for a comprehensive settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict. It is, admittedly, a slender hope. Since the collapse of the peace process in late 2000, none of the region's parties has displayed the requisite capacity or willingness to reach an acceptable compromise, while the international community has shown more fecklessness than resolve. But the Lebanon war must serve as a wake-up call: so long as the political roots of the Arab-Israeli conflict are not addressed, it will remain a bottomless source and pretext for repression, radicalisation and bloodletting, both in the region and beyond. Now is the time for an international push to launch a new peace initiative.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

42. Peace in Northern Uganda?

Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The peace talks in Juba between the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) and the Ugandan government have made surprising progress, with a formal cessation of hostilities agreement signed on 26 August. Led by Dr Riek Machar, vice president of the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS), they evolved rapidly over five months and now offer the best chance to end a twenty-year civil war that has ravaged the north of the country and spilled into Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The immediate test is whether the LRA will relocate its forces to the two designated assembly areas in southern Sudan. Initial reports are that small groups of LRA troops, with LRA Deputy Vincent Otti amongst them, have arrived at the assembly areas, raising expectations the talks have overcome their first big hurdle; but if the rest of the forces do not arrive, they may yet fall apart.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Sudan, and Democratic Republic of the Congo

43. Côte d'Ivoire: augmenter la pression

Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le Premier ministre Charles Konan Banny n'a pas pu mettre en œuvre la feuille de route qui devait doter la Côte d'Ivoire d'un gouvernement légitime et démocratique. Les Ivoiriens n'éliront pas leur président avant le 31 octobre 2006 comme le réclama it le Conseil de sécurité de l'ONU. Le pays est touj ours contrôlé par les anciens rebelles et les forces gouvernementales, séparés par une zone tampon fragile tenue par le s forces de maintien de la paix de l'ONU et de la France. La véritable guerre civile n'a peut-être pas encore eu lieu. Le deuxième report des élections s'inscrit dans une stratégie délibérée de la part des hommes politiques qui ne veulent pas d'une paix dont ils n'auraient pas la maîtrise et qui cherchent à évaluer le pouvoir d'une co mmunauté internationale qui doit prendre des décisions diffic iles en septembre: reporter les élections, maintenir l'autorité de Banny pendant encore six mois et demeurer activement engagée dans le pays. Un échec à ce stade augmenterait fortement le risque que ce pays, qui était autrefois l'un des plus prospères d'Afrique, continue à se rapprocher d'un bain de sang qui n'a été évité que de justesse depuis quatre ans.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa and France

44. Nepal: From People Power to Peace?

Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
King Gyanendra's capitulation on 24 April 2006 in the face of a mass movement marked a victory for democracy in Nepal and, with a ceasefire between the new government and the Maoists now in place, the start of a serious peace process. Forced to acknowledge the “spirit of the people's movement”, Gyanendra accepted popular sovereignty, reinstated parliament and invited the mainstream seven-party alliance to implement its roadmap – including election of a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution in line with the parties' five-month-old agreement with the Maoists. The international community lost credibility by attempting to pressure the parties into an unworkable compromise with the king and must now work hard to support a difficult transition and peace process while avoiding similar mistakes.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Asia and Nepal

45. Congo's Elections: Making or Breaking the Peace

Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As the Congo approaches its first free elections in 40 years, the stability of the country remains at risk, for three main reasons. First, one of the main former rebel groups, the Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD), is unpopular and stands to lose most of its power at the polls: this has triggered a resurgence of violence in the east, which is likely to intensify before and after elections, as dissident RCD troops attack the newly integrated national army. Secondly, the vote has not been adequately prepared. With few safeguards in place against fraud, rigged polls could rapidly undermine stability after the elections and produce unrest in cities. Thirdly, the country's long-time political opposition, Etienne Tshisekedi's Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), will boycott the voting, unhappy with the other main parties' unwillingness to negotiate with it. This is likely to cause unrest in the two Kasai provinces and Kinshasa, where Tshisekedi enjoys substantial support.
Topic:
Development, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Democratic Republic of the Congo and North Africa

46. Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement: The Long Road Ahead

Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
More than a year after it was signed, Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) is showing signs of strain. While the agreement ended one of Africa's longest and bloodiest civil wars, it was an agreement between only two parties, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) and the ruling National Congress Party (NCP), and continues to lack broader support throughout the country, particularly in the North. The current equation for peace in Sudan is a worrying one: the NCP has the capacity to implement but lacks the political will, whereas the SPLM has the commitment but is weak and disorganised. There is a real risk of renewed conflict down the road unless the NCP begins to implement the CPA in good faith, and the SPLM becomes a stronger and more effective implementing partner. The international community, which has largely abandoned the political engagement and commitment that was so crucial to achieving the peace agreement in the first place, must forcefully reengage with the process to ensure the agreement's successful implementation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

47. Colombia: Towards Peace and Justice?

Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
How Colombia implements its controversial new legal framework for demobilising the far-right paramilitaries and returning them to society is critically important. It can either take a decisive step towards ending its 40-year armed conflict or see prolongation of violence and the rise of an ever more serious threat to its democracy. Most paramilitaries have turned themselves in but the Justice and Peace Law (JPL) – criticised by human rights groups when enacted in July 2005 – has still not been applied. There is concern the Uribe administration prioritises quick fix removal of the paramilitaries from the conflict at the cost of justice for victims and the risk of leaving paramilitary economic and political power structures largely untouched. International support for JPL implementation should be conditioned on a serious government strategy to apply the new framework, as well as steps by President Uribe to contest paramilitary efforts to keep their crime (including drug) fiefdoms and build their political power.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

48. The Cyprus Stalemate: What Next?

Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The last round of Cyprus's drawn-out peace process ended in April 2004 when the Greek Cypriot community, which had long advocated reunification of the divided island on a bicommunal and bizonal basis, overwhelmingly rejected the UN-sponsored “Annan Plan”, which provided for just that. At the same time on the northern side of the Green Line, the Turkish Cypriot community, in a major reversal of its traditional preference for secession, backed reunification. The failure of the referendum did not stop a still-divided Cyprus being admitted to membership of the EU a week later. Notwithstanding clear continuing support for the Annan Plan, or some variation of it, among all other members of the EU and the wider international community, the present situation remains stalemated.
Topic:
International Relations, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Eastern Europe, Greece, United Nations, and Cyprus

49. Montenegro's Referendum

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Although there are some shoals still to be navigated, the narrow pro-independence victory in Montenegro's 21 May 2006 referendum should, on balance, increase rather than diminish stability in the western Balkans. It is in the interest of the European Union (EU), now that its previous policy of keeping Serbia and Montenegro together has run its course, to welcome the new state and speed its accession to international institutions. Podgorica still faces significant challenges associated with transition, but none should affect regional stability, and all can be resolved as the country moves forward with the Stabilisation and Association process towards EU membership. Given the positive international response to the referendum, Montenegro can aspire to becoming a “boring” country moving toward integration with Europe. But its opposition, and Belgrade, need to be persuaded not to renege on their commitments to the EU to accept the referendum result, lest this generate new uncertainties in the region as a Kosovo status decision approaches.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans

50. Nagorno-Karabakh: A Plan for Peace

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Settlement of the long running Nagorno-Karabakh conflict -- the most significant obstacle to stability in the South Caucasus -- remains elusive, despite more optimistic noises recently from Azerbaijan and Armenia. Eleven years after the 1994 ceasefire, burgeoning defence budgets, increasing ceasefire violations, and continuing demonisation by each side of the other side are ominous signs that time for a peace agreement is running out. But a compromise can now be constructed around an approach that, while addressing all the matters in dispute, leaves the core issue of Nagorno-Karabakh's ultimate status open for later resolution, after other measures have been put in place.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus