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91. A Half-Hearted Welcome: Refugee Return to Croatia

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Seven years after the end of the war, the issue of refugee return continues to be contentious for Croatia. The government that came to power following parliamentary and presidential elections in January and February 2000 inherited an unsatisfactory legacy of discriminatory laws and practices from its predecessor, to the detriment in particular of ethnic Serb displaced persons and refugees. It found that once the universal international relief that greeted its victory over the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) had worn off, international pressure to remove obstacles to refugee return and reintegration had not ended.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Croatia

92. Power and Wealth Sharing: Make or Break Time in Sudan's Peace Process

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The latest phase of the negotiations in Machakos, Kenya closed on 18 November 2002 with the signing of an important new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on power sharing and an extension of the earlier MOU on cessation of hostilities and unimpeded aid access. Significant progress was made during this phase. The Khartoum government and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) are slowly, painstakingly elaborating the structures of governance and wealth sharing arrangements through intense haggling – for example, what proportion of seats southerners will have in the legislative bodies and the oil revenues that will go to a Southern Reconstruction Fund.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Kenya, Sudan, and North Africa

93. Old Games, New Rules: Conflict on the Israel-Lebanon Border

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Israel-Lebanon border is the only Arab-Israeli front to have witnessed continuous violence since the late 1960s and it could become the trigger for a broader Arab-Israeli conflict. Yet, in recent times it has been the object of very little international focus. Amidst raging warfare between Israelis and Palestinians and mounting war-talk surrounding Iraq, there is scant energy to devote to a conflict that, since Israel's May 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon, appears devoid of justification and which neither of its principal protagonists seems interested in escalating. But ignoring it could be costly. Neither its roots nor its implications have ever been purely local. Israel's withdrawal has lessened the immediate costs but in some ways rendered the problem more unpredictable. Stripped of its cover as an Israeli-Lebanese border dispute, it has laid bare both the underlying Israeli-Syrian confrontation and Iran's involvement in the conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

94. Rwanda at the End of the Transition: A Necessary Political Liberalisation

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nine years after the 1994 genocide, Rwanda has reached another crossroads. The transition period defined by the Arusha Accords will be concluded in less than a year by a constitutional referendum and by multi-party elections which should symbolize the successful democratisation of the country. Today, however, there are multiple restrictions on political and civil liberty and no sign of any guarantee, or even indication, in the outline of the constitutional plan that the political opposition will be able to participate in these elections on an equal footing with the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), in power since 1994.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

95. Ending Starvation as a Weapon of War in Sudan

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Warring parties and international aid providers in Sudan have an historic opportunity to bring to an end what is perhaps the most extreme and long-running example in the world of using access to humanitarian aid as an instrument of war. A mid- December meeting between the UN and Sudan's warring parties – the Technical Committee for Humanitarian Assistance (TCHA) – provides an unparalleled vehicle to build on recent short-term agreements and to once and for all remove the institutional barriers to unimpeded access for humanitarian agencies. Such an opportunity may not arise again, so it is imperative that mediators, the UN Security Council, and interested governments provide concentrated and immediate support for this objective.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, Human Welfare, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Sudan, United Nations, and North Africa

96. Sudan's Best Chance for Peace: How Not to Lose It

Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 1 September 2002, two weeks into the second phase of the peace negotiations in Machakos, Kenya, the Sudanese government suspended its participation in the talks being brokered by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). This followed the capture, after a series of battles, of the southeastern Sudanese town of Torit by the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLA).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Kenya, Sudan, and North Africa

97. Macedonia's Public Secret: How Corruption Drags The Country Down

Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Corruption in Macedonia, especially at high levels of government, is endemic. It has evolved from passive exploitation to active coercion and acquired the capacity not only to retard economic progress but also to feed organised crime and, in turn, political and communal instability. In effect, the state has come to function in important respects as a “racket”, while the racketeers thrive in a culture of impunity.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Macedonia

98. The International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda: The Countdown

Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Il reste officiellement un peu plus de cinq ans au Tribunal pénal international pour le Rwanda (TPIR) pour achever le mandat qui lui a été confié, en novembre 1994, par le Conseil de sécurité des Nations unies. Le TPIR se trouve donc exactement à mi-parcours de son mandat. Depuis un an et demi, plusieurs nouveaux procès ont été initiés. Toutefois malgré cette amélioration significative marquée par un fort regain d'activité, le Tribunal d'Arusha n'a pas établi, les priorités judiciaires qui lui permettraient de remplir son mandat avant 2008. En mai 2001, ICG publiait un premier rapport bilan des activités du TPIR intitulé: "L'urgence de juger". Cette urgence reste, malheureusement, toujours d'actualité.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Genocide, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

99. Fighting to Control Yugoslavia's Military

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica's 24 June 2002 sacking of Yugoslav Army (VJ) Chief of the General Staff Nebojsa Pavkovic was necessary, welcome, and long overdue. The EU, U.S., and NATO acclaimed the move as an effort to assert civilian control over the military, and Kostunica indeed deserves credit for removing a significant obstacle to the country's reintegration with Europe. Nonetheless, the action was probably more the result of the ongoing power struggle between Kostunica and Serbian Premier Zoran Djindjic than a genuine effort to bring the military under civilian control or dismantle the extra-constitutional parallel command structures that the post-Milosevic leadership of the country has created within the VJ.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, United Nations, and Serbia

100. Kashmir: Confrontation and Miscalculation

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With tensions in Kashmir and the confrontation between Pakistan and India appearing to cool in recent weeks, it would be easy for the international community to focus its attention elsewhere. Unfortunately, the dynamics underpinning the conflict between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control (the de facto border dividing the two countries in Kashmir) have not changed, and the potential for strategic miscalculations by both sides and broader fighting remains all too real. Indeed, the heart of the dispute is being driven by both local political conditions in Kashmir and much more sweeping issues of national politics and national sovereignty in both countries. Further complicating the situation, both Pakistan and India have sought to use the U.S.-proclaimed “global war on terrorism” to their own tactical advantage, increasing the risk of military missteps.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, South Asia, India, and Kashmir