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32. Republika Srpska - Poplasen, Brcko and Kosovo: Three Crises and Out?
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The early part of 1999 has been turbulent for Republika Srpska. Political life has been unsettled by three separate and hardly-related crises: the decision of the High Representative to remove from office the RS President Nikola Poplasen; the decision of International Arbitrator Roberts Owen to give the municipality of Brcko neither to RS nor to the Federation but to both as a condominium; and the NATO air-strikes on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY).
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, NATO, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia
33. Sidelining Slobodan: Getting rid of Europe's last dictator
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With just over two years to run before the end of his term as Yugoslav President, Slobodan Milosevic remains entrenched in power in Belgrade. The Yugoslav constitution currently prevents the President from running for re-election in 2001, but while Milosevic may leave the presidency he shows no sign of forfeiting control and is in the process of purging both the army and secret police of all opposition. He also retains some residual influence over such cultural institutions as the Orthodox Church. Individuals who oppose his views and who are potential political opponents are invariably intimidated, often through brute force. Political party rivals are both attacked in the state and pro-regime press and also courted with the prospect of sharing power. The latest to succumb to that temptation has been Vuk Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Yugoslavia
34. Too Little Too Late: Implementation of the Sarajevo Declaration
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sarajevo's Bosniac authorities were given the opportunity to demonstrate their much-vaunted commitment to multi-ethnicity when, on 3 February 1998, representatives of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), the Federation of Bosnia Herzegovina (Federation), Sarajevo Canton and the international community adopted the Sarajevo Declaration. The Declaration stressed the importance of the Bosnian capital “as a model of coexistence and tolerance for the rest of the country” and made it clear that: “The international community will condition continuation of assistance for Sarajevo on fulfilment of the benchmarks set out in this Declaration and on adequate progress toward meeting the 1998 goal of at least 20,000 minority returns.”
- Topic:
- Demographics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia
35. MILOSEVIC: DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN?
- Publication Date:
- 12-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In the past few weeks the Belgrade authorities have sacked a number of key public officials. The two most prominent were security chief Stanisic and head of the army general staff Perisic. The firings triggered much speculation in the international media about the stability of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's regime. According to one interpretation, the sackings signal a fundamental weakness in government ranks, with Milosevic moving pre-emptively to oust potential rivals to his authority. Alternatively, the sackings may represent an attempt by the Yugoslav President to further consolidate his power base and to effectively rule with the backing of Yugoslavia's military and security establishments. Both Stanisic and Perisic were seen as Milosevic's opponents on several key policies, notably Belgrade's handling of relations with the Kosovo Albanians. Both Perisic and Stanisic, reportedly moderates not favouring the use of severe force against the Kosovars, have been replaced by Milosevic "yes-men" regarded as proponents of a violent resolution of the Kosovo question. If this is even in part the case, Stanisic's and Perisic's sackings do not necessary reflect a weakness in Milosevic's rule. Instead, the sackings may only signal Milosevic's resolve to return to force as a means of regional problem solving.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia
36. Breaking the Logjam: Refugee Returns to Croatia
- Publication Date:
- 11-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As winter approaches in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), conditions for refugee returns to that country become increasingly difficult. In neighbouring Croatia, by contrast, the weather is generally milder so that, given political will, refugees should be able to return to their homes throughout the winter months. Moreover, the Croatian government is organising a reconstruction conference next month, at which it hopes to obtain pledges of international support to help rebuild its war-damaged country. Many refugees from Croatia are Serbs – of whom some 300,000 now reside in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Republika Srpska – who fled previously Serb-held regions of Croatia in the wake of the Croatian Army's 1995 military offensives.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Migration, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Croatia
37. Sandzak: Calm For Now
- Publication Date:
- 11-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Sandzak is an area within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia that borders Serbia and Montenegro. It has a multicultural, multiethnic history and a majority population that is Muslim. Since the rise of Serbian strong-man Slobodan Milosevic to political power the majority Muslims have been the targets of coercion. For the time being, the major issue is Milosevic's continuing repression of human and political rights. Stating that, however, is not concluding that the area is entirely immune from the effects of a serious and full-blown military crisis.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro
38. 1998 Elections In Macedonia
- Publication Date:
- 10-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Macedonians go to the polls on 18 October 1998 in the first of two rounds of voting to elect 120 members of the country's parliament. The forthcoming poll is Macedonia's third general election since the disintegration of one-party communist rule. Moreover, it takes place in the shadow of ethnic violence between Serbs and ethnic Albanians in the neighbouring Serbian province of Kosovo and political instability in neighbouring Albania. Although Macedonia has managed to avoid the violent conflict which has afflicted the rest of the former Yugoslavia, its experience of democracy has so far been mixed. Politics is divided along ethnic lines and the last multi-party elections in 1994 were marred by accusations of fraud with two major parties boycotting the second round of voting.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Macedonia, and Albania
39. The Albanian Question In Macedonia: Implications of the Kosovo Conflict for Inter-Ethnic Relations in Macedonia
- Publication Date:
- 08-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As the one former Yugoslav republic which has managed to keep itself out of the wars of Yugoslav dissolution, Macedonia has often appeared to outsiders as a beacon of hope in the Balkans. However, inter-ethnic relations in the young state -- in particular those between ethnic Albanians, who make up at least 23 percent of the population, and ethnic Macedonians -- are poor. Moreover, as fighting between ethnic Albanian separatists and the Serbian police and military escalates in the neighbouring, southern Serbian province of Kosovo, relations between communities within Macedonia are deteriorating alarmingly. As a result, Macedonia and its entire population, irrespective of their ethnic origins, stand to be among the greatest long-term losers of the Kosovo conflict. Moreover, in the event of fighting and large numbers of refugees spilling over from Kosovo -- an entirely plausible eventuality unless the killing is halted -- Macedonia is poorly prepared and the country's very existence may be imperilled.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, Education, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, and Albania
40. Inventory of a Windfall: Milosevic's Gains from the Kosovo Dialogue
- Publication Date:
- 05-1998
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- When on 15 May 1998 Slobodan Milosevic met with Ibrahim Rugova it was the first time that the Yugoslav president had met with an Albanian leader from Kosovo in close to a decade. The event, heralding weekly talks between Kosovo's Albanians and the Serbian government, has thus been hailed as a "dramatic turn-about" and "a first step toward peace in Kosovo". However, the fact that, after so many years of stale-mate, some kind of negotiations have begun, should not in itself be a reason for euphoria. Key to the success of any talks is the framework within which they take place. Negotiations concerning the future status of Kosovo may, as a result of the concessions offered to the Yugoslav president, have got off to an inauspicious start.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia
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