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32. Serbia's Grain Trade: Milosevic's Hidden Cash Crop
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Nearly a year after NATO defeated Serbia in the war over Kosovo, the international community appears uncertain about how to remove Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic from power.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia
33. Serbia's Embattled Opposition
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The recent crackdown by the Belgrade regime on Serbia's independent media and political activists suggests that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is more vulnerable than it would appear. Since the Kosovo war ended, Milosevic has proven unable to expand his support base and must struggle with diminishing resources to keep restive constituencies intact. Despite its recognised weakness, the Serbian opposition is capable under certain conditions of removing Milosevic from power and offering better governance. The message of numerous public opinion polls over the past eight moths is that there is an anti-Milosvic majority in Serbia, but that the opposition must work together in coalitions to exploit it.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Non-Governmental Organization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia
34. Montenegro's Socialist People's Party: A Loyal Opposition?
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The assertion of the primacy of Serbian rights over all other peoples by Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has driven nearly every nationality of the former Yugoslavia toward the Republic's exits. Even Montenegro, once Serbia's closest political and military ally, has not been immune from the turmoil that Slobodan Milosevic has created and has opted to distance itself from Belgrade's controlling influence.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Non-Governmental Organization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro
35. Bosnia's Municipal Elections 2000: Winners and Losers
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The international community can draw a degree of comfort from the results of Bosnia's 8 April 2000 municipal elections. Overall, the voting was free of violence and more freeand fair than any previous election held in Bosnia. Nationalism may not be on the run yet—witness the strength of indicted Bosnian Serb war criminal Radovan Karadzic's Serbian Democratic Party (SDS)—but moderate leaders are making inroads and increasing numbers of voters seem to be paying attention to their messages.
- Topic:
- Government, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Serbia
36. Montenegro: In the Shadow of the Volcano
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Montenegro has been a crisis-in-waiting for two years now, with Belgrade opposing efforts by a reform-minded government under President Milo Djukanovic to distance itself ever further from its federal partner Serbia. Federal President Slobodan Milosevic has steadily escalated the pressure against Djukanovic, probing the extent of NATO support for Montenegro and pushing the Montenegrins toward a misstep that might undermine their international backing. Each of the three possible policy-paths facing the Montenegro government, however, is unappealing in its own way:Going ahead with a referendum on independence for Montenegro would risk radicalising a population still peacefully divided over the issue, and would offer maximum provocation to Belgrade, which retains a powerful military presence in Montenegro. Maintaining the status quo may offer a better chance of avoiding open confrontation with Belgrade, but it leaves Montenegro in a limbo. Its friends are not offering all the help they could, on the grounds that it is not a sovereign state; but prospects for selfgenerated income through inward investment or revival of the tourist industry are still hostage to international risk perceptions. Achieving rapprochement with the Serbian government would be possible if Milosevic went. But Montenegro cannot afford to leave its future in the unsure hands of the present Serbian opposition. And as the atmosphere in Serbia steadily worsens, political and public opinion in Montenegro appears to grow ever less willing to compromise.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Serbia, and Montenegro
37. Albanians in Serbian Prisons: Kosovo's Unfinished Business
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With the immense challenges facing the international community in its effort to secure and rebuild Kosovo, one critical outstanding matter that has received very little attention is the ongoing detention in Serbian prisons of several thousand Kosovar Albanians. Arrested by Serbian forces in the course of the Kosovo conflict, these prisoners were hastily transferred to Serbian jails and penitentiaries in the wake of the Kumanovo military-technical agreement, which ended the NATO air campaign and established a timetable for the withdrawal from Kosovo of all Serb forces.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania
38. Trepca: Making Sense of the Labyrinth
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The enterprise known as Trepca is a sprawling conglomerate of some 40 mines and factories, located mostly in Kosovo but also in other locations in Serbia and Montenegro. Its activities include chemical processing and production of goods as varied as batteries and paint. But the heart of its operations, and the source of most of its raw material, is the vast mining complex to the east of Mitrovicë/a in the north of Kosovo, famous since Roman times. This report examines the current position of the mines, together with the associated smelting complex at nearby Zvecan.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro
39. Transforming Serbia: the Key to Long Term Stability
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The NATO intervention in Serbia and the indictment of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia have created openings within Serbian society and exposed cleavages within the regime that should be rapidly exploited to hasten Milosevic's departure and bring about genuine political change. The loss of Kosovo, the destruction resulting from the bombing, and the refusal of the international community to rebuild Serbia until Milosevic is out of power have occasioned widespread despair among Serbs who have come to view their country's future under its present leadership as a dead end.
- Topic:
- NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia
40. Unifying The Kosovar Factions: The Way Forward
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Kosovo peace talks, held at Rambouillet (France) under the auspices of the sixnation Contact Group, have been suspended until 15 March 1999 after a provisional agreement was reached on granting substantial autonomy for Kosovo. However, neither the Kosovo Albanians nor Serbian delegates have yet signed the draft peace accord, which calls for a NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo, and in which the "final status" issue has been deliberately fudged. The immense complexities of the Kosovo question were dramatically illustrated at Rambouillet by the last-minute refusal of the Albanian delegation to sign the accord, due to pressure from a hardline faction of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) which refused to attend the talks.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and War
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia