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101. Counter-Terrorism in Somalia: Losing Hearts and Minds?

Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nearly four years after 9/11 , hardly a day passes without the "war on terrorism" making headlines, with Iraq, Afghanistan, Indonesia and now London holding centre stage. But away from the spot light, a quiet, dirty conflict is being waged in Somalia: in the rubble-strewn streets of the ruined capital of this state without a government, Mogadishu, al-Qaeda operatives, jihadi extremists, Ethiopian security services and Western-backed counter-terrorism networks are engaged in a shadowy and complex contest waged by intimidation, abduction and assassination. The U.S. has had some success but now risks evoking a backlash. Ultimately a successful counter-terrorism strategy requires more attention to helping Somalia with the twin tasks of reconciliation and state building.
Topic:
Terrorism and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Iraq, Indonesia, Middle East, London, and Somalia

102. Disengagement and Its Discontents: What Will the Israeli Settlers Do?

Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Scheduled for 15 August 2005, Israel's disengagement from Gaza and parts of the northern West Bank has already begun. How Israel for the first time evacuates settlements in the Palestinian Occupied Territories will have profound implications for Israeli-Palestinian relations, but also for Israeli society. Regardless of one's assessment of the settlers and their enterprise -- regarded internationally as illegal, by many Israelis as irresponsible and by others as the embodiment of the Zionist project -- it is bound to be a traumatic event for Israel. If it should be mishandled, accompanied by violent settler resistance or Palestinian attacks, the prospects for subsequent peace would be much bleaker. The international community's interest is to press for complete disengagement and then a credible follow-on political process.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

103. Iraq: Don't Rush the Constitution

Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The next stage in Iraq's political transition, the drafting and adoption of a permanent constitution, will be critical to the country's long-term stability. Iraqis face a dilemma: rush the constitutional process and meet the current deadline of 15 August 2005 to prevent the insurgents from scoring further political points, or encourage a process that is inclusive, transparent and participatory in an effort to increase popular buy-in of the final product. While there are downsides to delay, they are far outweighed by the dangers of a hurried job that could lead to either popular rejection of or popular resignation to a text toward which they feel little sense of ownership or pride.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

104. Unmaking Iraq: A Constitutional Process Gone Awry, Middle East Briefing

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Instead of healing the growing divisions between Iraq's three principal communities -- Shiites, Kurds and Sunni Arabs -- a rushed constitutional process has deepened rifts and hardened feelings. Without a strong U.S.-led initiative to assuage Sunni Arab concerns, the constitution is likely to fuel rather than dampen the insurgency, encourage ethnic and sectarian violence, and hasten the country's violent break-up.
Topic:
Government, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Kurdistan

105. Hizbollah: Rebel Without A Cause?

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Few political actors in the Middle East have seen their environment as thoroughly affected by recent events in the region as Hizbollah, the Lebanese political-military organisation that first came on the scene in the mid-1980s. In U.S. political circles, calls for action against Hizbollah, which is accused of global terrorist activity, are heard increasingly. With the ouster of Saddam Hussein's regime, the U.S. has upped its pressure on Syria and Iran - Hizbollah's two most powerful patrons. Meanwhile, Israel has made clear it will not tolerate indefinitely the organisation's armed presence on its northern border. Within Lebanon itself, weariness with Hizbollah and questions about its future role are being raised with surprising candour.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

106. Baghdad: A Race Against the Clock

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Eight weeks after victoriously entering Baghdad, American forces are in a race against the clock. If they are unable to restore both personal security and public services and establish a better rapport with Iraqis before the blistering heat of summer sets in, there is a genuine risk that serious trouble will break out. That would make it difficult for genuine political reforms to take hold, and the political liberation from the Saddam Hussein dictatorship would then become for a majority of the country's citizens a true foreign occupation. With all eyes in the Middle East focused on Iraq, the coming weeks and months will be critical for shaping regional perceptions of the U.S. as well.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, Arabia, and Arab Countries

107. A Middle East Roadmap To Where?

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After several false starts, the Middle East diplomatic Quartet (composed of the U.S., the EU, the Russian Federation and the Office of the Secretary General of the UN) finally put its Roadmap to Israeli-Palestinian peace on the table on 30 April 2003. However, although the document has received widespread international endorsement, there is also widespread scepticism about its contents, about the willingness of the parties to implement its provisions and indeed of its sponsors to maintain allegiance to them.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

108. The Meanings of Palestinian Reform

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since U.S. President George W. Bush's 24 June 2002 statement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Palestinian reform has emerged as a key ingredient in Middle East diplomacy. In his statement, the president publicly identified “a new and different Palestinian leadership” and “entirely new political and economic institutions” as preconditions for the establishment of a Palestinian state. In early July, the Quartet of Middle East mediators (the European Union, Russian Federation, United Nations, and United States) established an International Task Force for Palestinian Reform “to develop and implement a comprehensive reform action plan” for the Palestinian Authority (PA). The September 2002 statement by the Quartet underscored reform of Palestinian political, civil, and security institutions as an integral component of peacemaking. The three phase-implementation roadmap, a U.S. draft of which was presented to Israel and the Palestinians by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State William Burns in October, provided details on this reform component.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and United Nations

109. Iran: The Struggle for the Revolution's Soul

Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Iran is at a crossroads. More than two decades after the revolution that swept Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini into power, its people and leaders are deeply torn about the country's future. The outcome of the struggle for the revolution's soul will resonate across the Middle East and have major implications both strategically and for ongoing efforts to curb violence, including terrorism, in the region. The internal struggle is fluid and unstable. While the notion of a clear-cut battle pitting conservatives against reformers is appealing, it does not do justice to the reality. There are divisions within both camps and connections between them; indeed, some actors may be “conservative” on certain issues and “reformers” on others. Likewise, the idea that Iran's rulers can be dismissed en bloc as obstacles to reform overlooks the genuine differences that exist regarding the proper role of religion, democracy, social norms, economics and foreign policy. The complexity of Iran's domestic situation makes it all the more difficult – but also imperative – for the international community to exercise caution, properly fine-tune its actions and anticipate their impact.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

110. Middle East Endgame I: Getting To A Comprehensive Arab-Israeli Peace Settlement

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
President Bush, announcing U.S. policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on 24 June 2002, has set the terms of the international response to the conflict for the immediately foreseeable period. Before peace can be negotiated the violence has to stop. If the Palestinians are to have their own state – and the clear message is that they should – it must be one based on the principles of democracy, transparency and the rule of law. For that to happen the current leadership needs to go. The logic is sequential: political progress is conditional on a new security environment, institutional reform and, in effect, on regime change.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia