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1. Macedonia: Ten Years after the Conflict

Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Ten years after signature of the Ohrid Framework Agreement (OFA) that ended fighting between the country's ethnic Albanians and Macedonians, much of the agreement has been implemented, and a resumption of armed conflict is unlikely. Macedonia is justified in celebrating its success in integrating minorities into political life, but inter-party and inter-ethnic tensions have been growing for five years. While this part of the Balkans looks to eventual EU membership to secure stability, it remains fragile, and worrying trends – rising ethnic Macedonian nationalism, state capture by the prime minister and his party, decline in media and judicial independence, increased segregation in schools and slow decentralisation – risk undermining the multi-ethnic civil state Macedonia can become. Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, who has just formed a new government, should work closely with his Albanian coalition partners and opposition parties to pass and implement the measures needed for more democratisation, inter-ethnic reconciliation and a solution to the name dispute with Greece.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Greece, Balkans, Macedonia, and Albania

2. Macedonia's Name: Breaking the Deadlock

Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Macedonia is a relative success story in a region scarred by unresolved statehood and territory issues. International engagement has, since the 2001 conflict with an ethnic Albanian insurgency, brought progress in integrating Albanians into political life. This has been underpinned by the promise of European Union (EU) and NATO integration, goals that unite ethnic Macedonians and Albanians. But the main NATO/EU strategy for stabilising Macedonia and the region via enlargement was derailed in 2008 by the dispute with Greece over the country's name. Athens claims that, by calling itself “Macedonia”, it appropriates part of the Hellenic heritage and implies a claim against Greece's northern province. At summits it blocked Macedonian membership in NATO and EU accession talks until the issue is settled. Mystifying to outsiders, the dispute touches existential nerves, especially in Macedonia, and has serious regional implications. The parties need to rebuild trust; member states need to press both to compromise, especially Greece to respect its commitment not to block Skopje in international organisations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

3. Pan-Albanianism: How Big A Threat To Balkan Stability?

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Pan-Albanianism is seen by many observers as a serious threat to Balkan stability. A century of shifting borders has left ethnic Albanians scattered across Kosovo, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Greece. The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), the National Liberation Army (NLA) in Macedonia, and other groups have all waged campaigns of violence in support of enhanced rights for ethnic Albanians. Where is the ceiling to their ambitions?
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Greece, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, Albania, and Montenegro

4. Macedonia: No Room for Complacency

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Recent events require that policymakers revise substantially the conventional assessment that Macedonia is the foremost political “success story” of the Balkans. In fact, it is an underperforming post-conflict country still very much at risk, unable to tackle – operationally or politically -- its security challenges without upsetting an uncertain ethnic balance. Clear-eyed analysis of the dynamics driving unrest, from criminality and weak policing to an equally weak economy and corruption, is needed if a country that narrowly avoided war in 2001 is to secure long-term stability. Specifically, Macedonia cannot yet safely do without the presence of an international security force.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Macedonia

5. Moving Macedonia Towards Self-Sufficiency: A New Security Approach for NATO and the EU

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Macedonia's 15 September 2002 election suggests the country may have turned a corner on the road to stability. Widely anticipated fraud and violence mostly did not materialise. Unlike in neighbouring Kosovo a few weeks later, a cross section of voters from all ethnicities streamed to the polls. They elected a government that has embraced the Framework Agreement brokered by the European Union (EU), the U.S. and NATO at Ohrid in August 2001 to end the incipient civil war and that has pledged to manage inter-ethnic issues through consensus, not simply division of spoils, to overhaul the scandal-plagued “Lions” security unit, and fight massive, endemic corruption.
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Macedonia

6. Macedonia's Public Secret: How Corruption Drags The Country Down

Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Corruption in Macedonia, especially at high levels of government, is endemic. It has evolved from passive exploitation to active coercion and acquired the capacity not only to retard economic progress but also to feed organised crime and, in turn, political and communal instability. In effect, the state has come to function in important respects as a “racket”, while the racketeers thrive in a culture of impunity.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Macedonia

7. Macedonia's Name: Why the Dispute Matters and How to Resolve It

Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 16 November 2001, Macedonia's parliament passed a set of constitutional amendments that were agreed in August, when Macedonian and Albanian minority leaders signed the Ohrid Framework Agreement. Later that day, President Trajkovski clarified the terms of an amnesty for Albanian rebels, in line with international requests.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Government, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

8. Macedonia: Filling the Security Vacuum

Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The war option has, for the moment, been checked, but Macedonia is very far from being at peace. Neither the agreement signed on 13 August 2001 2 by the four Macedonian governing parties – two ethnic Macedonian, two ethnic Albanian – nor the subsequent limited NATO deployment, nor the first-stage approval of necessary constitutional amendments by the Macedonian parliament on 6 September have yet given anyone confidence that peace is sustainable. The parliamentary vote, for example, came only after an acrimonious debate in which markers were laid down that ultimate approval of the legislative package could not be taken for granted.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

9. Macedonia: War on Hold

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Macedonian and Albanian political leaders signed a political agreement – hailed by its Western midwives as a peace agreement – on 13 August 2001. NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson and the European Union's High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, flew to Skopje to attend the signing ceremony. But the strange context of the signing showed just how implausible it is that, without further extraordinary efforts, the agreement will actually provide a workable way to keep multiethnic Macedonia out of civil war. Details of the agreement had been hammered out by 8 August in Ohrid, a resort town chosen for the negotiations because it was some distance away from the latest fighting. Signature was delayed five days, however, while Macedonian government troops and ethnic Albanian rebels engaged in the deadliest series yet of tit-for-tat retaliations. Terms of the agreement were withheld from the public lest they provoke violent responses from hardliners on both sides. The ceremony, when it finally occurred, was carried out almost furtively, in a small room of the President's residence, without live television.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

10. Macedonia: Still Sliding

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Despite the ceasefire announced on 26 July 2001, and the promised resumption of political talks in Tetovo on 27 July, Macedonia is still locked in crisis and threatened by war. Neither ethnic Macedonian nor ethnic Albanian leaders have been converted to belief in a 'civic' settlement that would strengthen democracy by improving minority conditions, without weakening the integrity of the state. Ethnic Macedonians fear that civic reforms will transform the country exclusively to its, and their, detriment, while ethnic Albanians are sceptical that any reforms can really be made to work in their favour. Nor have separatists from both sides, within the country and in the diaspora, given up their conviction that security for their communities can only be achieved by demarcating – and hence competing for – ethnically “pure” territory.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania