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51. Aceh: A Fragile Peace

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 9 December 2002, an agreement on cessation of hostilities in Aceh was concluded in Geneva, bringing hope that an end to the 26-year-old conflict between Indonesian government forces and guerrillas of the pro-independence Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka or GAM) was in sight. Since then there have been many positive developments, most strikingly, a dramatic drop in the level of violence.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
Geneva, United States, Central Asia, and Indonesia

52. Uzbekistan's Reform Program: Illusion or Reality?

Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since October 2001, Uzbekistan has been a key ally of the U.S. in the military campaign in Afghanistan. A U.S. base has been established and a far-reaching Agreement on Strategic Partnership was signed in March 2002. Uzbekistan, however, sits uncomfortably in a campaign known as “Enduring Freedom.” It is one of the most authoritarian of the post-Soviet states, with a poor record on human rights and an economy that still owes much more to Soviet central planning than the market.
Topic:
Development and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia, and Uzbekistan

53. Afghanistan: Judicial Reform and Transitional Justice

Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Afghanistan's legal system has collapsed. Never strong to begin with, it has been nearly destroyed by 23 years of conflict and misrule. There are few trained lawyers, little physical infrastructure and no complete record of the country's laws. Under successive regimes, laws have been administered for mostly political ends with few protections of the rights of individuals to a fair trial. Although the country has signed up to most international agreements on human rights, abuses have been widespread, and military commanders have enjoyed impunity.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

54. Central Asia: The Politics of Police Reform

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The capacity of security forces to both prevent and provoke conflict is increasingly recognised. Police forces can play a vital role in providing the security environment necessary for peaceful political and economic development, and are at the forefront of tackling international security issues, including drugs trafficking, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and terrorism. A competent and democratised security sector is vital to enhancing governance and ensuring greater public trust in the state. Bad security forces, on the other hand, can provoke or deepen conflict and create environments where terrorism can prosper. Getting the security sector right is a key element in conflict prevention.
Topic:
Security, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Central Asia

55. The OSCE in Central Asia: A New Strategy

Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) emerged in a wave of euphoria surrounding the events of the late 1980s in the former Soviet bloc. Building on the achievements of its predecessor, the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), it has played a key role in state-building and democratisation in many areas of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.
Topic:
Development, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, and Soviet Union

56. Kyrgyzstan's Political Crisis: An Exit Strategy

Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
ICG's first report on Kyrgyzstan, published in August 2001, highlighted the potential for crisis facing the country. International attention was then rarely focused on Central Asia but since September 2001 the region has suddenly registered on policy-makers' agendas. Nearly 2,000 U.S. and Coalition troops are now located at Manas Airport near Bishkek, as part of the forces active in Afghanistan, and Kyrgyzstan is playing a key strategic role in the region. Stability in this country is now of fundamental concern to the international community but, since early 2002, it has declined sharply.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, and Kyrgyzstan

57. Al-Qaeda in Southeast Asia: The case of the "Ngruki Network" in Indonesia (Corrected on 10 January 2003)

Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
One network of militant Muslims has produced all the Indonesian nationals so far suspected of links to al-Qaeda. This briefing paper explains how that network emerged, its historical antecedents, and the political dynamics over the last two decades that led some of its members from Indonesia to Malaysia to Afghanistan. It is part of an occasional series that ICG intends to issue on the nature of radical Islam in Southeast Asia.
Topic:
Terrorism and War
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia

58. The Afghan Transitional Administration: Prospects and Perils

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Emergency Loya Jirga, or grand national assembly, held from 10 to 21 June 2002 in Kabul was a small but critical step in Afghanistan's political development. It was an opportunity to accord national legitimacy to the peace process begun at Bonn in November 2001 but it produced mixed results. From a narrow perspective, it was a success: representatives from across Afghanistan came together to elect, or rather anoint, a head of state, and the major armed factions kept their hats in the political ring rather than resort to violence. Given the last three decades of war and turmoil, this is significant.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

59. Central Asia: Water and Conflict

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Competition for water is increasing in Central Asia at an alarming rate, adding tension to what is already an uneasy region. Agriculture is the mainstay of the region's economy, and thirsty crops such as cotton and rice require intensive irrigation. Water use has increased rapidly since the Central Asian states became independent in 1991 and is now at an unsustainable level. Irrigation systems have decayed so severely that half of all water never reaches crops, and several years of drought have cut available water by a fifth even as demand continues to soar. Efforts to rebuild Afghanistan will now put yet more strain on supplies.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, and Environment
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

60. The Loya Jirga: One Small Step Forward?

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The immensity of the task of rebuilding Afghanistan into something resembling a coherent state cannot be over-estimated. Nearly three decades of political instability – including many years of savage warfare, the wholesale destruction of political and physical infrastructure and the inflammation of ethnic divisions – are layered on top of a nation that was among the poorest and weakest governed even in its "golden age" before King Zahir Shah was deposed in 1973. Afghanistan's transition back to a minimum level of political and economic stability will require many small but crucial steps to keep it on course.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia