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1. Forecasting House Seats from General Congressional Polls

Author:
Robert Erikson, Joseph Bafumi, and Christopher Wlezien
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
According to the frequent polling on the generic ballot for Congress, the Democrats hold a large advantage leading up to the vote on November 7. But does this Democratic edge mean that the Democrats will win a majority of House seats? Doubts are often expressed about the accuracy of the generic ballot polls. And even if the polls are correct in indicating a majority of votes going to Democratic candidates, further doubts are expressed about whether the Democrats' vote margin will be sufficient to win the most seats.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

2. Politics, Public Bads, and Private Information

Author:
Glenn Sheriff
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
Preferential treatment for politically influential sectors often has undesirable consequences such as increasing pollution or ecosystem degradation. Private information on firm productivity constrains the government's ability both to redistribute income and regulate public bad production. Given political economy and information constraints, this article characterizes a social-welfare maximizing policy. The optimal policy uses a single instrument to achieve both goals, making income-support subsidies contingent upon reduction of bad outputs. Output price uncertainty works to the advantage of the government, potentially eliminating some firms' information advantage.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Human Rights

3. Policymaking and Caseload Dynamics: Homeless Shelters

Author:
William McAllister
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
Many social problems can be understood as “conceptual caseloads”, e.g., people in poverty, and actual programmatic caseloads are a major, specific concern for policymakers and public administrators. Thus, a crucial and fairly general concern is how caseloads—whether conceptual or programmatic—can be reduced. To address this concern, officials often fall back on politically or intuitively attractive ideas—preventing people from entering caseloads, for example. Failure to incorporate caseload dynamics, however, may mean prevention and other caseload reduction policies will deliver much less than promised, and may cause caseloads to grow. In this paper, we first show how caseload size depends only on the number of entrants to a caseload and the rate at which people leave a caseload. With this framework in mind, we then address two common, seemingly appropriate policy responses: preventing entrants and hastening leaving. However, we show how too little is now known about homeless prevention to pin high hopes on its utility and that some social welfare problems, like homelessness, may be too inhospitable for prevention's logic. We then explain how allocating resources to hasten leaving is not as straightforward as policymakers have assumed but rather must recognize caseload dynamics to avoid unintended growth. We conclude by explaining some limits and opportunities in using caseload dynamics for policymaking.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, Government, and Poverty

4. Factional Politics and Credit Networks in Revolutionary Vermont

Author:
Henning Hillmann
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
Studies of state formation tend to emphasize the demise of localism through centralization. This article specifies empirically the social structural conditions that strengthen localism understate formation. The historical case is the creation of Vermont during the Revolutionary War and the local factionalism it involved. Probate records are used to reconstruct credit networks that provided the relational foundation for localism and factional identities. The evidence demonstrates that network segregation between factional regions intensified over time, and was supported by strong cohesion within these regions. Local brokers who forged cohesion within factions consistently attained important political offices while mediators between opposing factions increasingly failed to obtain offices. This structural process coincided with the shift of Vermont's domestic politics into national level conflicts between Federalists and Jeffersonians. Within this escalation local and national factions crystallized around equivalent pairs of binary categorical oppositions. T h e evocation of national politics directly resonated with local lines of conflict, and reinforced factional identities and localism.
Topic:
Government, Human Welfare, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
United States

5. The Plasticity of Participation: Evidence from a Participatory Governance Experiment

Author:
Subham Chaudhuri and Patrick Heller
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
Under the “People's Campaign for Decentralised Planning,” initiated by the government of the Indian state of Kerala in 1996, significant planning and budgetary functions that had previously been controlled by state-level ministries, were devolved to the lowest tier of government—municipalities in urban areas, and gram panchayats (village councils) in ural areas. A key element of the campaign was the requirement that every gram panchayat organize open village assemblies—called Gram Sabhas—twice a year through which citizens could participate in formulating planning priorities, goals and projects. Using data from the first two years of the campaign, on the levels and composition of participation in the Gram Sabhas in all of Kerala's 990 gram panchayats we empirically assess the explanatory power of the dominant existing paradigms of participation—social capital, rational choice, and social-historical. The basic patterns we document, as well as our more detailed analyses of the impact that a range of spatial, socioeconomic and political factors had on the levels and social depth of participation, provide broad support for a dynamic and contingent view of participation, a perspective that recognizes the “plasticity of participation.”
Topic:
Economics, Government, Human Welfare, and Governance
Political Geography:
Asia

6. Negotiating the End of Transition: A Network Approach to Political Discourse Dynamics, Hungary 1997

Author:
Péter Csigó and Balázs Vedres
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
The initial question of this paper is how the large scale social process of postsocialist transition ends. We argue that transition is closed by discursive innovations in the political field, rather than just spontaneous crystallization. The political field is depicted as a dynamic symbolic structure that is an arena of local action. First the possible discourse positions are extracted from the two mode network of speech acts and statements. Then using these typical positions the dynamics of responses and responses to responses is explored. We give an account of an emergent univocal government position that represents a successful role claim (an exit from the loops of local action) on the government's side to coherently frame the end of transition.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Europe

7. The Influence of Women and Racial Minorities Under Panel Decision Making on the U.S. Court of Appeals

Author:
Sean Farhang and Gregory Wawro
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
This paper assesses the impact of gender and race on judicial decisions on the federal Court of Appeals, paying particular attention to the institutional nuances of decision-making on three-judge appellate panels within circuits. Our central question is whether and how racial minority and women judges influence legal policy on issues thought to be of particular concern to women and minorities. Proper analysis of this question requires investigating whether women and minority judges influence the decisions of other panel members. We find that the norm of unanimity on panels grants women influence over outcomes even when they are outnumbered on a panel.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Gender Issues, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

8. Pathways of Property Transformation: Enterprise Network Careers in Hungary, 1988-2000 Outline of an Analytic Strategy

Author:
Balázs Vedres and David Stark
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
This study analyzes the restructuring of a national economy by identifying the career pathways of its enterprises. This analysis is conducted in a setting strategically chosen as a case of rapid and profound economic transformation: the postsocialist Hungarian economy between 1988-2000. The goal of this study is to chart the multiple pathways of property transformation. Property pathways are conceptualized as the patterned sequences of change that firms undergo 1) in the composition of their ownership structure and 2) in their position within network structures of ties to other enterprises. These career pathways are neither unidirectional nor plotted in advance. The landscape and topography of the socioeconomic field are given shape and repeatedly transformed by the interaction of the multiple strategies of firms attempting to survive in the face of variable political, institutional, and market uncertainties. These different types of uncertainties will have different temporalities, and the study explores whether and how they increase or diminish in various periods. We develop and test specific hypotheses about how enterprise pathways along the compositional and positional property dimensions are related to the shifting contexts of these types of uncertainty. The core dataset for this study includes the complete ownership histories of approximately 1,800 of the largest enterprises in Hungary for a twelve year period, starting with the collapse of communism in 1989, recording each change in a company's top 25 owners on a monthly basis. Monthly entries for each enterprise also include changes in top management, boards of directors, major lines of product activity, raising or lowering of capital, and location of establishments and branch offices, as well as the dates of founding, mergers, bankruptcy, etc. Data on revenues, number of employees, and operating profit will be compiled from annual balance sheets. These rich data make it possible to map the life cycles of the business groups that are formed by network ties among enterprises, identifying not only when they arise, merge, or dissipate, but also the changing shapes of their network properties. To identify patterns of change, the study draws on sequence analysis, a research tool that makes possible the study of historical processes in an eventful way similar to historiography while retaining social scientific abstraction. Whereas sequence analysis has given us a perspective on careers as historical processes but has not been applied to business organizations, network analysis has been applied to business organizations but has not been done historically. The methodological innovation at the heart of this study is to combine the tools of sequence analysis and network analysis to yield a sequence analysis of changing network positions.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Hungary

9. Policy Space and voting Coalitions in Congress: the Bearing of Policy on Politics, 1930-1954

Author:
Ira Katznelson, John Lapinski, and Rose Razaghian
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
The question of how the substance of politics helps shape legislative coalitions and bases of support has been displaced from the center of studies of Congress since the publication of pioneering work in the 1960s and early 1970s. Seeking to revive this research program, we apply an original coding scheme in tandem with a factor analytic analysis of voting and policy space to the period spanning the last years of the Hoover presidency to the start of Eisenhower's. Investigating legislator parameters—the dimensions of voting space—and roll call parameters—the dimensions of policy space—the paper confirms the strong independent impact of the substance of policy on the political decisions of legislators and reveals an issue-specific concatenation of party and region that altered over the course of the period.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

10. "Contentious Europeans: Is There a European Repertoire of Collective Action?";

Author:
Doug Imig and Sydney Tarrow
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
The research reported here was inspired by a talk that the second author was induced to give for a seminar in West European Politics at Nuffield College, Oxford, in February 1994 by Vincent Wright, to whom we express our gratitude and to whom all complaints and cavils should be directed.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Western Europe