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1. Countdown for Brexit: What to Expect for UK, EU and Turkey?

Author:
Burak Cop
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
As the most divisive issue of the British politics since 2016, the Brexit phenomenon continues to shake the two biggest mainstream parties, Conservatives and Labour. The Conservative Party is affected by the tension between the Soft and Hard Brexiters, but the divisiveness Brexit brings about hits Labour even worse. A No Deal or Hard Brexit is likely to strengthen Scotland’s bid for independence. Scotland’s probable departure from the UK will surely be encouraging for other secessionist movements in Europe, however it should be noted that the window of opportunity Brexit opens for Scottish nationalists constitutes a rather exceptional case in Europe. One could argue that the “Norway model” for post-Brexit UK could be valid for Turkey too, but that model aims to bring about a deeper integration than what the proponents of “EU-Turkey exclusive partnership” prescribe for Turkey.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, Political Parties, and Secession
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, North America, Scotland, and European Union

2. EU's PESCO: A new foreign policy instrument or the same old story?

Author:
Amal Cemal Ertürk
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
Since the end of World War II, foreign policy and security issues have haunted the European dreams of complete integration in terms of alignment in a highly challenging field, which is also constantly interrupted by sovereignty concerns of member states. Within today’s changing dynamics, the EU’s current instruments seem to fall short of preventing terrorism or providing a meaningful answer to the problems in the Middle East. The EU’s capacity to act in this field needs to be strengthened. The newest approach presented by the European External Action Service (EEAS) is called PESCO (the Permanent Structured Cooperation) and aims to change this current structure of “inactivity”. This short paper will briefly analyze this new instrument.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe

3. National Security in the Age of Hybrid War

Author:
Ilhami B. Değirmencioğlu
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
During the course of the past 10 years, the security environment has become more complex due to the blurring of the lines of warfare. Therefore, the ‘gray zone’ between peace and war expanded and became a battlefield of non-conventional warfare such as counterinsurgency, terrorism, cyber-attacks, etc. (Mansoor, 2012: 1). The failed and fragile states in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia, as well as non-recognized de facto states in the Caucasus played catalytic role in the expansion of the non-conventional warfare. Moreover, Great Powers inclined to use increasingly the non-conventional warfare in the proxy and delegated wars waged by them. In the recent years, the non-state actors used innovative and complicated tactics against legal authorities in many countries. The prevalence of the new complex threats transformed the classic war concept into a concept called ‘new wars.’ Due to the combined use of the conventional and non-conventional warfare, many scholars and politicians started to call the new model of war as ‘hybrid war.’
Topic:
National Security, Conflict, Peace, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Global Focus, and United States of America

4. Externalizing the Crisis: Buffer Zones Around the EU

Author:
Emma Burström
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
With the Syrian civil war soon entering its fifth year of armed conflict, the European Union is facing the largest influx of people in its history. Over 710,000 refugees and irregular migrants, of which a majority were Syrians, entered EU territory in the first 3 quarters of 2015 only (FRONTEX, 2015). Despite several informal top-level meetings between the EU member states and a pledge to relocate 160,000 refugees from the two main reception countries Greece and Italy, concrete action has yet to be taken and, as of yet, less than two hundred have been resettled within the EU (European Commission (d), 2015). Attempts to manage the influx of refugees and irregular migrants on a supranational level have been met with resistance from the governments of the member states. As the situation deteriorates and the number of people arriving shows no sign of abating, the member states are desperately looking outside the EU for solutions. Hoping to persuade transit countries to participate in refugee protection, and to contribute to stronger borders, the EU is engaging in various projects and negotiations focusing on its near abroad, with the aim of creating a buffer against the migrants. This policy update will briefly explore the history and implementation of these buffer zones, from the visa restrictions during the Yugoslav wars in the 90’s to the increasing use of ‘safe third countries’ today. Further, the positive and negative aspects of these buffer zones will be examined with the objective of: 1) detecting the possible risks of human rights violations, poverty, and insecurity, that closed border could cause; and 2), highlighting the potential benefits to the refugees and irregular migrants, the host countries, and the refugee sending countries, that could be the result of well-constructed policies.
Topic:
European Union, Refugees, Conflict, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Syria

5. The Resumption of Accession Talks: A Hesitant Improvement in Turkey-EU Negotiations

Author:
Filippo Urbinati
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
After more than three1year deadlock, 2013 was marked by the attempt by Brussels and Ankara to restart the dialogue for Turkey’s accession to European Union. Two developments were remarkable in this process: the release of the most favorable Progress Report on Turkey since 2009, and the opening of the community acquis Chapter 22 on Regional Policy and Coordination of Structural Instruments. Regarding the former development, the European Commission underlined the positive steps achieved by Turkey and the pressing need for the EU to enhance its engagement with Turkey and revitalize the accession negotiations’ framework as the main way to promote EU sponsored reforms. As far as the latter development is concerned, the relevance of the opening of a new chapter cannot be overestimated as the political stumbling blocks, which led the negotiations to stagnation, have been kept untouched and are still far from solved. This policy update is intended to give account of the main issues connected with these developments and underline the reasons for why they have to be considered important steps forward but¬ the decisive ones.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, European Union, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

6. A Turkish Perspective on Security Issues in the Mediterranean

Author:
Şadi Ergüvenç
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
The Mediterranean is where the atmosphere of mutual distrust, fear and polarization prevail. Arab Israeli dispute and Turkish Greek differences over the Aegean and Cyprus impede efforts for developing mutual confidence and co operation. Recently, economic and financial crises and the “Arab Risings” have brought along more reasons for concern. Islamophobia and racism versus Islamic jihadism increase the risk of confrontation. Turkey together with Spain appeals for an “Alliance of Civilizations” and exploits its double identity, European and Muslim, through a proactive and multilateral poli cy for finding peaceful solutions to chronic regional solutions. Greece and Greek Cypriot governments should refrain from unilateral attempts to declare maritime borders.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

7. Avrupa'da Seçmen Davranışı: Bölgesel Farklılıkların Önemi

Author:
Nazlı Çağın Bilgili
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
Elections are central elements of democratic systems as they provide the public with the opportunity – with some restrictions established by legal arrangements such as quotas – to make their voices heard. In other words, it is through election results that we learn a great deal about the social and political circumstances in a country. This paper follows the electoral trends in European countries since the beginning of the 1990s as far as the data makes it possible. In order to create a comprehensive analysis, turnout rates, voter preferences and other major determinants shaping preferences – whether influential economic or identity factors – are considered. Europe is defined, in this research, as all of the EU member states, making a highly complicated and heterogeneous collection. As the trends in these different countries can be expected to diverge, a regional comparison between Western, Northern, Southern and Eastern Europe is provided so that the similar and different electoral trends in these regions are presented clearly.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Political Economy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

8. Güney Avrupa'da Ekonomik Kriz ve Toplumsal Hareketler

Author:
Burak Cop
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
The southern European countries are those who have been affected the most by the EU sovereign debt crisis. However, compared with Greece and Spain, Italy and Portugal are in relatively better positions in terms of their debt/GDP rate and unemployment figures. There has been a strong popular reaction against the austerity measures in Greece, a country where leftist parties and trade unions have been traditionally strong. Due to the miserable conditions of the economy, the Greek government has been prevented from taking the publics demands into account. It is important to note that the political situation in Greece is very unstable leading to the potential relaxing of the austerity measures. There is no such instability in Spain and Portugal, making the probability of the relaxation of austerity measures unlikely, especially in Spain. Italy has the same potential for political instability as does Greece, and given that it is a country with relatively better conditions, in comparison with the others, some relaxation of the austerity measures may be expected if the centre-left coalition comes to power.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Spain

9. SOSYAL DEMOKRASİ KÜRESEL ÇEVRE İÇİN BİR SİYASAL ALTERNATİF OLABİLİR Mİ?

Author:
Yunus Emre and Çağla Gül Çağla Gül
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
Social democracy was born as a reaction to the social problems created by capitalist modernization in the nineteenth century. It had a central role in the making of the modern European societies. During the twentieth century, it had immense organizational successes and election victories transforming political relationships in those societies. In the 1970s, orientation towards social democracy increased within many of the countries in the global periphery. Today, social democracy prevails as an influential and successful political and social power system in these periphery countries. This paper seeks to answer whether social democracy should continue to be a model for other countries in the periphery.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

10. Cyprus: A European Anomaly

Author:
Michael Moran
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
I have published most of the items in this booklet before. Denktaş's speech before the United Nations (UN) Security Council in 1964 was included in my edition of Rauf Denktash at the United Nations: Speeches on Cyprus (The Eothen Press, Huntingdon, 1997); and except for a few small changes, my opening essay here differs little from the first chapter of my book Sovereignty Divided: Essays on the International Dimensions of the Cyprus Problem (CYREP, Nicosia, 1998; third enlarged imprint, 1999). These earlier works are now out of print and will probably remain so.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Europe and Cyprus