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11. EU's Readmission Agreement and Visa Liberalization Talks with Turkey: Backing up Turkey's Protracted Way to the EU

Author:
Lenka Peťková
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
European Union (EU) has been reluctant to start visa liberalization talks with Turkey until mid–2012 despite the fact that citizens of all other candidate countries have enjoyed visa-free travel to Schengen area since 2009. The Turkish diplomats had mastered to negotiate roadmap to visa-free travel in an exchange for the initial of the readmission agreement, implementation of which is considered key in securing EU's eastern borders. The issues of migration and visa policy are covered in the negotiating chapter Justice, Freedom and Security, which has been blocked by the Republic of Cyprus. Demonstrating that the said topics represent joint interest of Turkey and the EU, the chapter was added to the positive agenda launched this May with the aim to keep Turkey's accession process alive. Despite the fact that visa liberalization and readmission agreement will both be negotiated outside of Turkey's accession framework, reforms adopted in these areas are likely to ease Turkey's alignment with the provisions of the relevant chapter of the acquis communautaire. Visa liberalization and readmission agreement are thus important factors influencing Turkey's protracted journey to the EU.
Topic:
Islam, Migration, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Famine
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

12. How Verbal Threats to Close Oil Transit Chokepoints Lead to Military Conflict

Author:
John Bowlus
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On December 26, 2011, in response to US, European, and potential Asian sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the government in Tehran issued a threat to “cut off the Strait of Hormuz.” The US Defense Department responded that any blockade of the strait would be met with force. On first read, it is easy to dismiss such saber rattling as another chapter in the new Cold War in the Middle East between Iran and its allies – including Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah – and the US, Israel, and the Sunni Gulf States, mostly notably Saudi Arabia. Iran has since backed away from its threat, but the event still carries importance because it is unclear how both the US and Iran will continue to respond, particularly as the diplomatic and economic pressures grow more acute while Iran's controversial nuclear program advances. Could such a verbal threat by Iran to cut off the Strait of Hormuzignite a military conflagration in the region? The relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions is well established; however, policymakers and analysts tend to focus on the incidents in which military conflict causes disruptions in oil supplies and sharp increases in prices. The first and most obvious example of this dynamic was the Arab-Israeli War of 1973. The subsequent oil embargo by the Arab members of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) against the United States and the Netherlands for their support of Israel caused prices to soar as oil-consuming nations endured supply shortages. The Iranian Revolution from 1978 to 1979 was another event that curtailed Western nations' access to oil and caused prices to spike. When thinking about the relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions, however, policymakers and analysts should also recognize that the competition over oil – and even verbal threats to disrupt oil supplies by closing oil transit chokepoints – have either led directly to military conflict or have provided a useful cover under which countries have initiated military conflict. By examining past episodes when countries issued threats to close oil transit chokepoints, this Policy Brief helps illuminate the dangers associated with the current crisis over the Strait of Hormuz.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Arabia

13. Turkey's Standing in Gas Pipeline Games

Author:
Olgu Okumus
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
Since September 2011, the Eurasian gas market has been facing shocking bi-monthly announcements: on September 23, British Petroleum (BP) announced the South East Europe Pipeline (SEEP); on December 26, Turkish and Azeri authorities announced their joint agreement for the Trans-­Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP); and on February 26, the Shah Deniz II Consortium announced it was undertaking exclusive negotiations with the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). The shock wave intensified when the Turkish Energy Minister hinted that a new agreement allowing Russia to build its own South Stream pipeline under the Black Sea using Turkish territorial waters was in the works. Now the ultimate question of the Eurasian energy market is: “Which of these projects will be built?” This Policy Brief seeks to answer this question by analyzing Turkey's standing in Eurasian energy diplomacy in the perspective of energy transit projects competing for building the Southern Energy Corridor of gas transit from the Caspian zone to Europe. First, I present a short review of Turkish strategy in Eurasian energy diplomacy. Secondly, I detail the driving forces behind Turkish energy policy. I then conclude with some remarks about different scenarios of Turkish energy policy in the framework of the Southern Energy Corridor.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

14. Prospects for Global Growth in 2012

Author:
Onur Bayramoğlu
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
The current concern among many is that what we are faced today is not a usual crisis that is part of the economic cycle, but an era of great stagnation with low growth and high unemployment, not witnessed since the Great Depression of the 1930's. One wonders which country will drive global growth while major actors such as the European Union are now financial casinos, the United States is continuously losing its dynamism, Japan is struggling under demographical problems, and the emerging markets are still too small and volatile. Once again, policy makers acknowledge that the problems of growth are global and systematic; such that if one faces an issue, all of them get contaminated. However, they still seek for solutions in mercantilist national policies.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

15. Turkey-NATO Relations at the 60th Anniversary

Author:
Sofia Hafdell
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
After 60 years of membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Turkey’s role in the alliance stands strong amid new security threats and challenging regional change. It also largely corresponds to the New Strategic Concept of the 2010 Lisbon Summit, outlining the range of principles to which the members must adopt in order to continue effective cooperation and meet new responses, capabilities and partners (NATO, 2010). In light of this, Turkey’s strategic geography is crucial for the new security environment in the Euro-Atlantic region and beyond. Taking the recent examples of the intervention in Libya and the missile defense system, this policy update will highlight the importance of Turkey’s role within NATO regardless of initial foreign policy disagreements with the alliance and recent negative trends in Turkish public opinion towards the West.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Public Opinion, and History
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Mediterranean

16. Young Minds Rethinking the Mediterranean

Author:
Nihan Akıncılar, Anna Alexieva, Jennifer Brindisi, Evinç Doğan, Amanda E. Rogers, and Beatrice Schimmang
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
In this paper, Europeanization of minority rights in Turkey will be explained in detail and in the conclusion part, it will be compared and contrasted with the Europeanization of minority rights in Greece. In this comparison, it is difficult to compare and contrast the mechanisms of Europeanization in Turkey and Greece because these mechanisms are suitable for the member states of the European Union (EU). For the candidate countries, the question of “how it is Europeanized” can be only answered with conditionality. Therefore, instead of trying to adapt Turkey in the case of minority rights to the mechanisms of Europeanization for the member states, in this study, it will be dealt with how the EU matters in affecting the minority rights protection in candidate and member states. Therefore, what this study implies when it is expected to explain Europeanization of mi`nority rights in Turkey is not to handle this case through the Europeanization theories, but how the EU affects the candidate countries through conditionality.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Human Rights, War, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Greece

17. EU's Rejection of Turkey: The Real Underlying Reason

Author:
Yalım Eralp
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
There are many negative elements in EU-Turkey relations. Some consider the difference in religion as the primary factor. The issue is deeper than that. It is cultural contradiction. When Europe says cultural diversity is richness, it tends to mean cultural integration.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, Religion, and Culture
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

18. Turkey's 2000/1 Banking Crisis: A Case Study for the Transformation of the Greek Finance?

Author:
Onur Bayramoğlu
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On April 2010, recently after the eruption of the Greek crisis, an unexpected hand from Turkey reached to Greece. Proud with his country's last decade growth figures, Turkey's then Vice Prime Minister, Ali Babacan, paid a visit to Greece in order to share his country's reform period after its 2000/1 crisis, arguing that it could also be a case study for Greece. In this brief, I analyzed Greek and Turkish financial crises. Although it is a mere fact that the structural problems in Greek economy complicate the reform period in Greece, there are certain lessons that Greeks can learn from the Turkish experience. As Turks did after 2001, they should see the crisis as an opportunity to overcome the long time problems . In this regard, Greeks first and foremost should establish consensus among themselves, signaling to the markets that they are ready to face the burdens of the reform period.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, and Greece

19. The Present and Future of Turkey's Membership Negotiations with the EU

Author:
Cengiz Aktar
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the present state of affairs regarding Turkey's European Union bid at the occasion of the fifth anniversary of the debut of the negotiations. At the first glance the tableau looks rather grim, the membership negotiations stalled, the political dialogue stuck and even the 15-years old customs union jeopardized by numerous political and administrative impediments. Parallel and due to this state of affairs, Turkey's modernization process once triggered by its aspirations to join the European Union is now fully Turkish driven. Despite this development, Turkey, the author argues, still benefits from the techniques, principles and standards of the Bloc and would need to do so in a foreseeable future.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, and Turkey

20. Individual Rights Versus Collective Rights

Author:
Yalım Eralp
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
To what extent can the rights granted to minorities or ethnic groups lead those groups to integrate into the society they live in? Or do such rights lead to secession? Academicians alone do not debate such questions; politicians, too, are currently debating how to ensure both the rights of minorities and territorial integrity.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Europe