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361. Inclusive Institutions and the Onset of Internal Conflict in Resource-rich Countries

Author:
Tim Wegenast
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The literature on institutional determinants of intra-state violence commonly asserts that the presence of multiple political parties reduces the conflict potential within countries; by co-opting oppositional groups into an institutionalized political arena, dissidents would prefer parliamentarian means over violent rebellion in order to pursue their goals. The present paper shows that this proposition does not necessarily hold for fuel-abundant states. In the presence of natural resources such as oil or gas, countries exhibiting numerous non-competitive parties are actually more susceptible to internal conflict. Fortified by the establishment of legal political parties, regime opponents succumb more easily to the prospects of securing resource revenues, adopting rapacious behaviour. Fuel-related internal grievances as well as the opposition's disaffection over the lack of effective political leverage and government use of political violence provide a seemingly legitimate motive for armed rebellion. Moreover, financial means for insurgency are raised by extortion or the possibility of selling future exploitation rights to natural resources. Logit models using different estimation techniques and alternative operationalizations corroborate the proposed claim. The argumentation is further illustrated by a depiction of the Colombian case.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Democratization, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Colombia

362. Civilizing the World Order? The Scope and Potential of Transnational Norm-building Networks

Author:
Robert Kappel, Ulrich Mückenberger, and Cord Jakobeit
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Civil society organizations, epistemic communities, and lobby groups—what we call transnational norm-building networks—are influencing the global economy and global politics more than ever before. We argue that such transnational norm-building networks, in contrast to the dominating executive intergovernmental elites and democratically deficient supranational bodies, hold the scope and potential for a more civilized world order. They are—together with states and international governmental organizations—creating new norms; they are setting standards. They associate the voice of stakeholders with decision-making processes, thus leading to an increase in legitimate world governance.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Globalization, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

363. In Search of Legitimacy in Post-revolutionary China: Bringing Ideology and Governance Back In

Author:
Heike Holbig and Bruce Gilley
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The contemporary politics of China reflect an ongoing effort by the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to claim the right to rule in light of the consequences of economic development, international pressures, and historical change. China stands out within the Asian region for the success the regime has achieved in this effort. By focusing on the changes in China elite discourse during the reform period and particularly during the last decade, this paper aims to elaborate on the relative importance of various sources of legitimacy as they shift over time, as well as on their inherent dilemmas and limitations. There is evidence of an agile, responsive, and creative party effort to relegitimate the post-revolutionary regime through economic performance, nationalism, ideology, culture, governance, and democracy. At the same time, the paper identifies a clear shift in emphasis from an earlier economic‐nationalistic approach to a more ideological-institutional approach.
Topic:
Communism, Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

364. Ethnic Party Bans in East Africa from a Comparative Perspective

Author:
Anika Moroff
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Since 1990 the banning of ethnic and other identity-based parties has become the norm in sub-Saharan Africa. This article focuses on Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda as three East African countries that have opted for different ways of dealing with such parties. Using case studies, it traces the origins of the party bans in Tanzania and Uganda and explores the reasons for the absence of a ban in Kenya. The analysis shows that the laws on particularistic parties have actually been implemented by the appropriate institutions. However, these laws have only marginally influenced the character of the political parties in the three countries: A comparison of regional voting patterns suggests that bans on particularistic parties have not ensured the emergence of aggregative parties with a national following in Tanzania and Uganda. In Kenya on the other hand, where such a ban was nonexistent until 2008, parties have not proven to be more regional.
Topic:
Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, and Tanzania

365. Climate-Resilient Industrial Development Paths: Design Principles and Alternative Models

Author:
Thomas Richter
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper argues that trade and capital account reforms within autocracies underlie the primacy of foreign currency procurement. A longitudinal comparison of four countries (Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan) in the Middle East and North Africa region shows a historical sequencing of reforms. In the 1960s and 1970s, the foreign exchange scarcity was managed primarily by rising restrictions, accumulation of debt and a number of unilateral country-specific strategies, including broader economic openings (infitah) and isolated capital account liberalizations. However, IMF-friendly reforms (orthodox trade liberalization) only became a political option in the context of the extreme fiscal scarcity of the 1980s and 1990s, after the failure of these earlier policies and the drying up of alternative unconditional finance. Additionally, the time differences regarding when orthodox reforms are implemented within autocracies mainly relate to global and regional cycles of different external windfall gains. These findings complement recent debates about the rush to free trade in at least two regards. First, they point to distinct causal mechanisms depending on the type of political regime (for example, autocracy versus democracy), explaining the beginning of trade and capital account liberalizations among developing countries. Second, they reveal the conditional historical influence of neoliberal ideas among structurally similar autocracies.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia

366. Fuel for Conflict or Balm for Peace? Assessing the Effects of Hydrocarbons on Peace Efforts in Algeria

Author:
Miriam Shabafrouz
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper explores the use of hydrocarbon revenues in post-conflict Algeria. While the bloody years of the 1990s now seem to be over, recurring terror attacks and the ongoing state of emergency leave room for doubt that a situation of stable peace has been achieved yet. It is therefore necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of post-conflict peace-building efforts in Algeria and identify ways of improving these measures. The resources, which are mainly controlled by the central state, can have positive and negative effects on the political economy: they can enhance growth and possibilities for the distribution of wealth, but the dependency on them makes the whole economy vulnerable to crises. Analysing the economic (and other) causes of the outbreak of the intra-state war in 1992 and the reasons for its escalation and its fading out can be revealing when assessing the extent to which critical conditions have or have not been addressed by recent and current peace‐building efforts. The author's analysis reveals that the measures taken by the government—such as implementing a programme of national reconciliation, the stimulation of certain sectors of the economy and the resolute reduction of foreign debt—all aim at stabilization and have all been driven by hydrocarbon income to a large extent. However, the recent rise and sudden drop in the price of oil and gas have both had an effect on the scope of these measures and reveal their limits. Moreover, some of the critical causes of the civil war such as the unfair distribution of revenue, the lack of political participation and destabilizing demographic changes still persist and have largely remained unaddressed. One of the author's concluding assumptions therefore is that it is very likely that the use of resource revenues for conflict prevention and peace‐building will only lead to sustainable results when embedded in full-fledged reforms of Algeria's entire economic and political system.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Algeria

367. Religious Peace Activism—The Rational Element of Religious Elites' Decision-making Processes

Author:
Alexander De Juan and Johannes Vüllers
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Religious elites are active for peace in many violent conflicts. Normative explanations often do not suffice to explain their engagement. In this paper we draw on the findings of social‐movement research to identify the factors that induce rationally acting religious elites to be active for peace. It is their relationships to the government, other religious elites, and believers that can motivate them to call for peace. However, they will do so only if they anticipate—based on the overall influence of other religious peace (co‐)activists, the structure of the religious community, and the frame environment—that they will not be penalized for their engagement. Religious norms are an important motivation behind religious peace activism, but rational decision‐making also has to be taken into account if religious engagement for peace is to be explained fully.
Topic:
Peace Studies, Religion, and Social Movement

368. Measuring Geopolitical Power in India: A Review of the National Security Index (NSI)

Author:
Karl Hwang
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This review examines how India perceives its own rise to power by undertaking a detailed analysis of the Indian National Security Index (NSI) for the period from 2003 to 2008. Like other power formulas, the NSI includes various indicators of power, though it is uniquely Indian in that it initially emphasized human development and later included ecology based on a holistic human‐security paradigm. The analysis demonstrates that this holistic approach has now been abandoned in favor of a more conventional one, and that the technical formulas and theoretical concepts of the NSI exhibit various inconsistencies and problems. In particular, one can recognize the absolute need for a unified standard for handling variables in the construction of composite indexes in general.
Topic:
Security, Emerging Markets, Human Welfare, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

369. The Resource Curse and Rentier States in the Caspian Region: A Need for Context Analysis

Author:
Hannes Meissner
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Although much attention is paid to the Caspian region with regard to energy issues, the domestic consequences of the region's resource production have so far constituted a neglected field of research. A systematic survey of the latest research trends in the economic and political causalities of the resource curse and of rentier states reveals that there is a need for context analysis. In reference to this, the paper traces any shortcomings and promising approaches in the existent body of literature on the Caspian region. Following on from this, the paper then proposes a new approach; specifically, one in which any differences and similarities in the context conditions are captured. This enables a more precise exploration of the exact ways in which they form contemporary post-Soviet Caspian rentier states.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, Development, Political Theory, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Caspian Sea

370. From Rivalry to Mutual Trust: The Othering Process between Bolivia and Chile

Author:
Leslie Wehner
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Bolivia and Chile live in a culture of rivalry as a consequence of the Nitrate War (1879 ‐ 1883). In each country's case, the construction of the other as a threat, a rival and/or inferior has shaped the discursive articulation of the bilateral relationship. Whereas the culture of rivalry is more evident in Bolivia because of its aspiration to alter the border, Chile's status ‐ quo position, which stresses that there are no pending issues with Bolivia, as well as its construction of itself as superior, also represents rivalrous behavior. The perception of Chile as a threat and rival became especially evident in Bolivia during these two countries' bilateral negotiations to export gas to and through Chile (gas crisis from 2001 ‐ 05). However, since Evo Morales and Michelle Bachelet took office in Bolivia (2006 ‐ present) and in Chile (2006 ‐ 10), respectively, they have sought to change this culture of rivalry to one of friendship by constructing discursive articulations of self and other based on the principle of building mutual trust. Such a change in the form of othering is only possible to understand within the context of a crisis of meanings. The new approach of othering the counterpart as a friend has filled the void of meaning left by the crisis of discursive articulations of othering the counterpart as a rival, a threat and/or inferior.
Topic:
Political Theory and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
South America, Chile, and Bolivia