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201. Political Change in the Middle East: An Attempt to Analyze the "Arab Spring"

Author:
Martin Beck and Simone Hüser
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This article deals with the Arab Spring as a process of deep political change in the Arab world, previously the only major world area where authoritarianism persisted unchallenged for decades. While in various countries of the Arab world mass protests in 2011 forced rulers to resign, other authoritarian regimes have – despite political and economic pressure – so far been able to remain in power, or have even been only insignificantly affected. This paper applies central social science approaches in order to analyze recent developments in the region – a major task of theoretically oriented social sciences in the coming years. In addition to providing an overview of the existing literature on the Arab Spring, the article examines the empirical results of political diversification in the Arab world. A two ‐ by ‐ two matrix of political rule that differentiates according to the type of rule and the degree of stability is presented and discussed. Although the analysis draws heavily on rent theory, it also applies findings from transition theory and revolution theory to illuminate the current political dynamics in the Middle East.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, Governance, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

202. The Consequences of Failed Mediation in Civil Wars: Assessing the Sri Lankan Case

Author:
Sandra Destradi and Johannes Vüllers
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
While mediation efforts in violent conflicts often fail, the academic literature on mediation has long ignored both this phenomenon and its consequences. This paper aims to fill this significant knowledge gap by examining the conditions under which the failure of mediation leads to an escalation of civil war. Based on the literature on bargaining, we argue that the degree of negotiability of the conflict parties' strategic objectives, as well as the relative weight of hardliners and moderates within those conflict parties, influence the likelihood of escalation after mediation failure. A plausibility test carried out for Norway's failed mediation in the Sri Lankan civil war confirms the usefulness of our model. In particular, the suspension of negotiations in April 2003 led to a shift towards less negotiable strategic objectives for both conflict parties and to a strengthening of hardliners within the government. This contributed to the escalation of the conflict, up to its eventual termination in May 2009.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Civil War, Diplomacy, Terrorism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

203. The Geopolitics of Satellite Vision and North Korea

Author:
David Shim
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Satellite imagery plays an important role in contemporary geopolitics. Arguably the most well‐known example is Colin Powell's (in)famous presentation to the UN Security Council in February 2003, during which he used satellite pictures to legitimate the invasion of Iraq. Satellite photographs draw on a techno‐scientific discourse that enables them to function as undistorted records impartially documenting space and place. As a result, they assume a defining authority to “speak the truth” – which is probably enhanced with regard to (allegedly) unknown and mysterious sites like North Korea. Since satellites are deployed to reveal what should be invisible, their ability to detect and expose, or “see from above,” implies a particular power. However, satellite photographs are not necessarily objective reflections of a geographical surface but, like all visual representations, underlie what will be called a logic of inclusion and exclusion that makes them deeply political. Taking North Korea as an example, the article argues for the need to develop a sensitized understanding concerning the use and function of satellite images as they often come to have international political implications. Referring to the linkages between seeing, knowing and acting, the article examines the role of remote sensing as a way of knowing and inquires as to the immediacy of images and the ensuing imperative to respond to them.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
North Korea

204. Rising South Korea: A Minor Player or a Regional Power?

Author:
David Shim and Patrick Flamm
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
South Korea’s rising status in regional and global affairs has received much attention in recent years. But in academic, media and policy debates South Korea is usually regarded as a mere middle power that, due to its geopolitical situation, has only limited leeway in its foreign policy. Accordingly, it must constantly maneuver between its larger neighbors: China, Japan and Russia. However, this perspective neglects the fact that the same geopolitical constraint also applies to other states in the region. No country can easily project its power over others. We use the concept of “regional power” as a template to discuss South Korea’s rising stature in regional and global politics. We argue that Seoul seems quite capable of keeping up with other assumed regional powers. Hence, we not only provide a novel account of South Korea’s foreign policy options but also go beyond current approaches by asking about the (undetermined) possibilities for Seoul’s regional relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, Israel, and South Korea

205. Postwar Youth Violence: A Mirror of the Relationship between Youth and Adult Society

Author:
Sabine Kurtenbach
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Postwar societies are high-risk contexts for youth violence. Nevertheless, not all postwar societies are equally violent. This article explores how these variations can be explained by focusing on the interaction between youths and adult society in a comparison of Guatemala and Cambodia. Starting from the concept of socialization and the possibilities of performing status passages to adulthood, it analyzes not only the different risk factors but also the agency of young people and society in trying to cope with and overcome obstacles on the pathway to adulthood. Different patterns of war termination and of reconstruction after war's end are identified as major intervening variables that explain the variations in youth violence in as well as across the case studies.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Crime, War, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Cambodia and Guatemala

206. Renewables in the Energy Transition: Evidence on Solar Home Systems and Lighting-Fuel Choice in Kenya

Author:
Jann Lay, Janosch Ondraczek, and Jana Stoever
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
We study the determinants of households' choices of lighting fuels in Kenya, including the option of using solar home systems (SHSs). The paper adds new evidence on the factors that influence the introduction and adoption of decentralized and less carbon‐intensive energy sources in developing countries. We capitalize on a unique representative survey on energy use and sources from Kenya, one of the few relatively well‐established SHSs markets in the world. Our results reveal some very interesting patterns in the fuel transition in the context of lighting‐fuel choices. While we find clear evidence for a crosssectional energy ladder, the income threshold for modern fuel use – including solar energy use – is very high. Income and education turn out to be key determinants of SHSs adoption, but we also find a very pronounced effect of SHSs clustering. In addition, we do not find a negative correlation between grid access and SHSs use.
Topic:
Development, Education, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

207. Origins and Outcomes of Electoral Institutions in African Hybrid Regimes: A Comparative Perspective

Author:
Sebastian Elischer, Gero Erdmann, and Alexander Stroh
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In the early 1990s most African countries carried out extensive reforms of their electoral regimes. Adopting a historical institutionalist approach, this paper critically examines the role of institutional path dependence in accounting for the setup of six African electoral regimes. For this purpose, we distinguish between different types of path dependence. The paper further analyzes the extent to which the development of electoral institutions contributed to the regime-type outcome (democratic/hybrid/autocratic). The main emphasis herein is on so-hybrid regimes;” in other words, regimes existing in the grey zone between democracy and autocracy. The paper finds that, while institutional path dependence has a limited but important impact on the setup of the electoral regimes, it is ultimately the process of decision-making during critical junctures that accounts for the regime type outcome. Hybrid regimes lack long-term institutional ownership.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

208. What Friends Are Made Of: Bilateral Linkages and Domestic Drivers of Foreign Policy Alignment with China

Author:
Georg Strüver
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
With China's emergence as a global economic and political power, it is commonly assumed that its leadership's influence in international politics has increased considerably. However, systematic studies of China's impact on the foreign policy behavior of other states are rare and generally limited to questions regarding economic capabilities and the use of coercive power. This paper seeks to contribute to the literature on China's global political rise by taking a broader perspective. Drawing on voting data from the UN General Assembly for the last two decades, it explores the plausibility of different explanations for foreign policy similarity: economic, diplomatic and military linkages; domestic institutional similarities; and parallel problem‐solving processes. The logistic regression analyses find that high similarity levels correlate with shared regime characteristics and comparable patterns of sociopolitical globalization. The results further indicate that foreign aid and arms trading seem to help buy support in global politics.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Emerging Markets, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
China and Israel

209. The Nature and Role of Regional Agreements in International Environmental Politics: Mapping Agreements, Outlining Future Research

Author:
Miriam Prys, Jörg Balsiger, and Niko Steinhoff
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Global agreements to mitigate climate change, conserve biodiversity or combat desertification typically take center stage in scholarly discussions about international environmental politics. Even though the United Nations Environment Programme reported ten years ago that regional agreements make up two‐thirds of all international treaties, regional cooperation has by comparison either received scant attention or been conceptually and empirically lumped together with global treaties. This lack of knowledge about the historical and current scope of regional governance is a serious obstacle to understanding the architecture of global environmental governance and to overcoming current bottlenecks in international environmental cooperation. In response, we report on the outcome of an analysis that complements the most comprehensive database on international environmental agreements (iea.uoregon.edu) with variables for analysis at the regional level. We introduce a multidimensional typology of regional agreements based on contiguous/noncontiguous agreement membership, contiguous/noncontiguous spatial ambit, and whether membership and ambit are adjoining and/or coextensive. We discuss the theoretical and empirical relevance of the different types of agreements and the nature and prevalence of special cases. Given the previous lack of research in this area, our primary purpose is to present a systematic account of regional environmental governance, leaving causal analysis to our own and others' future research. We identify a number of knowledge gaps and analytical directions in the conclusion.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations

210. Drivers of Strategic Contestation in South America

Author:
Daniel Flemes and Leslie Wehner
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The politics of contestation on the part of secondary regional powers such as Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela towards Brazil as the regional leader oscillate between competition and cooperation, inasmuch as the South American region has one regional power and is a zone of negative peace without aggressive rivalries. The secondary powers use different tactics, which constitute their respective foreign policy strategies, to soft balance Brazil. These tactics include alliance building, entangling diplomacy, binding, and omni‐enmeshment. This paper identifies, first, the specific drivers of contestation towards Brazil and, second, why the secondary powers' foreign policy strategies vary in how they directly or indirectly contest the rise of Brazil at the regional and international levels. The paper demonstrates that in a regional order such as that of South America, which is characterized by relative stability, domestic drivers of contestation are key to explaining secondary powers' varied strategic responses to the regional power.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Japan and South America