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11. Revisiting the Resource–Conflict Link: A Systematic Comparative Test of Causal Mechanisms in Four Major Oil-Exporting Countries

Author:
Miriam Shabafrouz, Matthias Basedau, and Annegret Mähler
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Causal mechanisms and related contextual variables are crucial to the study of the resource–conflict link, but little systematic research has been done on their exact functioning. This paper contributes to the filling of this gap by comparing four major oil exporters (Algeria, Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela) with differing levels of internal violence. To capture the causal complexity of the resource–conflict link we created a questionnaire with some 150 variables that distinguish between resource-specific (RS) and non-resource specific (NRS) conditions. The causal mechanisms are measured by assigning pertinent RS and NRS indicators to them. Our results suggest that the role of resources may be less prominent than is widely assumed. Only three resource-related causal mechanisms provide limited explanatory value (motive at subnational level, indirect economic, and institutional mechanism) by distinguishing Venezuela—the most peaceful case—from all the others. Only a mixed mechanism that combines 13 RS and NRS (economic and geographic characteristics, identity, intergroup relations, as well as political and institutional variables, including elite behavior) conditions can explain the differences between the countries with regard to the dependent variable comprehensively.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Diplomacy, and Oil
Political Geography:
Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria

12. Fighting for a Kingdom of God? The Role of Religion in the Ivorian Crisis

Author:
Johannes Vüllers
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the role of religion with regard to the violence experienced during the past 20 years in Côte d'Ivoire. It seeks to explain the differences in the level of violence over time by focusing on religion as an identity marker and as a social force that is mobilizable by religious and political actors. Religious identities were part of the growing in-/ out-group mechanism utilized in Côte d'Ivoire in the 1990s, while the political elites tried to politicize religion. In reaction to the violence and politicization, the religious elites founded an interreligious organization in the 1990s, and were successful in preventing a religious war.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
Africa

13. State-Building, War and Violence: Evidence from Latin America

Author:
Sabine Kurtenbach
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In European history, war has played a major role in state‐building and the state monopoly on violence. But war is a very specific form of organized political violence, and it is decreasing on a global scale. Other patterns of armed violence now dominate, ones that seem to undermine state‐building, thus preventing the replication of European experiences. As a consequence, the main focus of the current state‐building debate is on fragility and a lack of violence control inside these states.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Political Violence, and War
Political Geography:
Europe and Latin America

14. Cutting Bread or Cutting Throats? – Findings from a New Database on Religion, Violence and Peace in Sub – Saharan Africa, 1990 to 2008

Author:
Matthias Basedau, Johannes Vüllers, and Georg Strüver
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Despite the religious diversity in sub–Saharan Africa and the religious overtones in a number of African conflicts, social science research has inadequately addressed the question of how and to what extent religion matters for conflict in Africa. This paper presents an innovative data inventory on religion and violent conflict in all sub–Saharan countries for the period 1990–2008 that seeks to contribute to filling the gap. The data underscore that religion has to be accounted for in conflict in Africa. Moreover, results show the multidimensionality (e.g. armed conflicts with religious incompatibilities, several forms of non‐state religious violence) and ambivalence (inter‐religious networks, religious peace initiatives) of religion vis–à–vis violence. In 22 of the 48 sub–Saharan countries, religion plays a substantial role in violence, and six countries in particular—Chad, Congo‐Brazzaville, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Sudan and Uganda— are heavily affected by different religious aspects of violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Post Colonialism, and Religion
Political Geography:
Africa

15. Nigeria: A Prime Example of the Resource Curse? Revisiting the Oil-Violence Link in the Niger Delta

Author:
Annegret Mähler
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper studies the oil-violence link in the Niger Delta, systematically taking into consideration domestic and international contextual factors. The case study, which focuses on explaining the increase in violence since the second half of the 1990s, confirms the differentiated interplay of resource-specific and non-resource-specific causal factors. With regard to the key contextual conditions responsible for violence, the results underline the basic relevance of cultural cleavages and political-institutional and socioeconomic weakness that existed even before the beginning of the “oil era.” Oil has indirectly boosted the risk of violent conflicts through a further distortion of the national economy. Moreover, the transition to democratic rule in 1999 decisively increased the opportunities for violent struggle, in a twofold manner: firstly, through the easing of political repression and, secondly, through the spread of armed youth groups, which have been fostered by corrupt politicians. These incidents imply that violence in the Niger Delta is increasingly driven by the autonomous dynamics of an economy of violence: the involvement of security forces, politicians and (international) businessmen in illegal oil theft helps to explain the perpetuation of the violent conflicts at a low level of intensity.
Topic:
Political Violence, Crime, Economics, and Oil
Political Geography:
Africa

16. Private Security in Guatemala:The Pathway to Its Proliferation

Author:
Otto Argueta
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
It has become commonplace to explain the proliferation of private security services as causally determined by crime rates and institutional weakness. By contrast, this paper argues that another explanatory factor needs to be emphasized, especially for post-war societies: continuity and change of social control mechanisms. The paper first presents the current situation with commercial and noncommercial private security services in Guatemala (private security companies, as well as neighborhood security committees). Against this background, it reconstructs mechanisms and critical junctures by which the Guatemalan state sourced out policing functions to the private sector during the war, and traces the reinforcement of these mechanisms in the post-war society. It argues that the proliferation of private security services is an outcome of the overlapping of different political processes and sequences. The continuity of social control mechanisms thereby emerges as a stronger explanatory factor for this proliferation, rather than the common justification of high crime rates.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Crime, and Development
Political Geography:
Latin America and Guatemala

17. Representaciones de la violencia en la literatura centroamericana

Author:
Nadine Haas
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper examines the representations of violence in Guatemalan and El Salvadoran lite-rature against the backdrop of persistently high levels of violence and crime following the civil wars in both countries. It adopts an interdisciplinary approach settled within cultural studies and uses two examples-De fronteras (2007) by Claudia Hernández and Días amarillos (2009) by Javier Payeras-to analyze the narrative strategies applied in the process of recounting violence. The results of the literary analysis enable the author to draw conclusions concerning the way in which both societies deal with urban post-war violence. The texts refer to the ubiquity of violence and the hopelessness of the situation, as well as to the responsibility of the mass media for reproducing violence and a general turning away from the public domain towards the private life.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and War
Political Geography:
Latin America

18. Inclusive Institutions and the Onset of Internal Conflict in Resource-rich Countries

Author:
Tim Wegenast
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The literature on institutional determinants of intra-state violence commonly asserts that the presence of multiple political parties reduces the conflict potential within countries; by co-opting oppositional groups into an institutionalized political arena, dissidents would prefer parliamentarian means over violent rebellion in order to pursue their goals. The present paper shows that this proposition does not necessarily hold for fuel-abundant states. In the presence of natural resources such as oil or gas, countries exhibiting numerous non-competitive parties are actually more susceptible to internal conflict. Fortified by the establishment of legal political parties, regime opponents succumb more easily to the prospects of securing resource revenues, adopting rapacious behaviour. Fuel-related internal grievances as well as the opposition's disaffection over the lack of effective political leverage and government use of political violence provide a seemingly legitimate motive for armed rebellion. Moreover, financial means for insurgency are raised by extortion or the possibility of selling future exploitation rights to natural resources. Logit models using different estimation techniques and alternative operationalizations corroborate the proposed claim. The argumentation is further illustrated by a depiction of the Colombian case.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Democratization, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Colombia

19. Fuel for Conflict or Balm for Peace? Assessing the Effects of Hydrocarbons on Peace Efforts in Algeria

Author:
Miriam Shabafrouz
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper explores the use of hydrocarbon revenues in post-conflict Algeria. While the bloody years of the 1990s now seem to be over, recurring terror attacks and the ongoing state of emergency leave room for doubt that a situation of stable peace has been achieved yet. It is therefore necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of post-conflict peace-building efforts in Algeria and identify ways of improving these measures. The resources, which are mainly controlled by the central state, can have positive and negative effects on the political economy: they can enhance growth and possibilities for the distribution of wealth, but the dependency on them makes the whole economy vulnerable to crises. Analysing the economic (and other) causes of the outbreak of the intra-state war in 1992 and the reasons for its escalation and its fading out can be revealing when assessing the extent to which critical conditions have or have not been addressed by recent and current peace‐building efforts. The author's analysis reveals that the measures taken by the government—such as implementing a programme of national reconciliation, the stimulation of certain sectors of the economy and the resolute reduction of foreign debt—all aim at stabilization and have all been driven by hydrocarbon income to a large extent. However, the recent rise and sudden drop in the price of oil and gas have both had an effect on the scope of these measures and reveal their limits. Moreover, some of the critical causes of the civil war such as the unfair distribution of revenue, the lack of political participation and destabilizing demographic changes still persist and have largely remained unaddressed. One of the author's concluding assumptions therefore is that it is very likely that the use of resource revenues for conflict prevention and peace‐building will only lead to sustainable results when embedded in full-fledged reforms of Algeria's entire economic and political system.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Algeria

20. Contested Cornerstones of Nonviolent National Self-Perception in Costa Rica: A Historical Approach

Author:
Sebastian Huhn
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Crime, violence, and insecurity are perceived as society's biggest problems in contemporary Costa Rica. This degree of priority is especially remarkable because the country has always been considered the peaceful exception in the violent Central American region. In this paper I analyze four cornerstones of the nonviolent national self-perception in the 1940s and 1980s as the fundamental basis for the current talk of crime: the civil war, the abolition of the military, the proclamation of neutrality, and the peace plan for Central America and the subsequent granting of the Nobel Peace Prize. The result of the analysis is the determination that these historical cornerstones were not publicly discussed as expressions of the nonviolent identity for which they are today cited as evidence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Crime, Human Rights, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Latin America