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1. How Do International Sanctions End? Towards a Process-Oriented, Relational, and Signalling Perspective

Author:
Julia Grauvogel and Hana Attia
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Research on sanctions has hitherto focused on their implementation and effectiveness, whereas the termination of such measures has received only little attention. The traditional model, which looks at sanctions and their removal in terms of rational, interstate bargaining, focuses on how cost–benefit calculations affect the duration and termination of such measures. Yet, this research insufficiently captures the back and forth between easing sanctions, stagnation, and renewed intensification. It also fails to account for the multifaceted social relations between senders, targets, and third actors that shape these termination processes, as well as for the signalling dimension of ending sanctions – not least because existing datasets tend to operationalise sanctions as a single event. To help fill these gaps, the paper proposes a process-oriented and relational understanding that also recognises how sanctions termination conveys the message of ending the visible disapproval of the target, which may be heavily contested. Case studies on Zimbabwe and Iran illustrate how such an approach sheds light on the different logics of action that shape processes of sanctions termination, and thereby contributes to a more holistic understanding of sanctions in general.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Africa, Iran, Middle East, and Zimbabwe

2. Revisiting the Issue of Democratic Deterioration in Venezuela, 1974–1998

Author:
Anibal F. Gauna
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This article examines the issue of democratic deterioration by revisiting the Venezuelan case (1974–1998). Using sequence elaboration and alternative case-focused theories, it tests and confirms the hypothesis that presidential partyarchy was the main contextual explanatory factor behind the crisis that led to Venezuela’s democratic deterioration. Building on elite conflict theory, it also aims to integrate previous studies’ insights and better explain the timing of factors to illustrate how economic presidentialism (the highly autonomous executive control of a state-controlled economy) was the main mechanism leading to democratic deterioration.
Topic:
Economics, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

3. State Extraction and Anti-Colonial Rebellion – Quantitative Evidence from the Former German East Africa

Author:
Alexander De Juan
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Does extraction increase the likelihood of antistate violence in the early phases of state building processes? While much research has focused on the impacts of war on state building, the potential “war‐making effects” of extraction have largely been neglected. The paper provides the first quantitative analysis of these effects in the context of colonial state‐building. It focuses on the Maji Maji rebellion against the German colonial state (1905–1907), the most substantial rebellion in colonial Eastern Africa. Analyses based on a newly collected historical data set confirm the correlation between extraction and resistance. More importantly, they reveal that distinct strategies of extraction produced distinct outcomes. While the intensification of extraction in state‐held areas created substantial grievances among the population, it did not drive the rebellion. Rather, the empirical results indicate that the expansion of extractive authority threatened the political and economic interests of local elites and thus provoked effective resistance. This finding provides additional insights into the mechanisms driving the “extraction–coercion cycle” of state building.
Topic:
Economics and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Germany

4. Margins, Gravity, and Causality: Export Diversification and Income Levels Reconsidered

Author:
Karsten Mau
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The paper shows that the relationship between GDP per capita and levels of specialization can be predicted differently depending on whether the intensive or the extensive margin is considered. It shows that at the extensive margin countries continuously diversify their exports and that cross-sectional patterns can be captured well by a gravity equation. Prior studies documenting nonmonotone patterns with respecialization appear to have obtained their results from sample-selection bias, the omitted log-transformation of the income variable, and the neglect of control variables. Furthermore, results from dynamic panel analyses (system GMM) suggest that causality goes in both directions, with income having a contemporaneous impact on diversification, while the feedback effect of diversification on GDP per capita may be delayed. This pattern fits into theoretical rationales that view diversification as driven by technology or efficiency and where diversification generates additional revenues as it proves to be persistent.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology

5. Hooray for Global Justice? Emerging Democracies in a Multipolar World

Author:
Julian Culp and Johannes Plagemann
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Rising powers are fundamentally shifting the relations of power in the global economic and political landscape. International political theory, however, has so far failed to evaluate this nascent multipolarity. This article fills this lacuna by synthesizing empirical and normative modes of inquiry. It examines the transformation of sovereignty exercised by emerging democracies and shows that – in stark contrast to emerging democracies' foreign policy rhetoric – the "softening" of sovereignty has become the norm. The present paper assesses this softening of sovereignty on the basis of a "democratic-internationalist" conception of global justice. This conception holds that global justice demands the establishment of reasonably democratic transnational relations that enable people themselves to determine what else justice requires. Because we find that the exercise of soft sovereignty by emerging democracies contributes to the realization of reasonably democratic transnational relations, we conclude that this nascent multipolarity ought to be welcomed from the democratic-internationalist view of global justice.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Brazil

6. Productive Power and Policy Change in Global Finance: An Analysis of China's Financial Policy Framing in the Bretton Woods Institutions

Author:
Sandra Heep
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Against the backdrop of China's increasingly influential role in global finance and the debate on the emergence of a “Beijing Consensus,” this paper examines whether the ideology that China promotes in the Bretton Woods institutions is conducive to the initiation of financial policy change at the international level. Drawing on Barnett and Duvall's (2005) conceptualization of productive power, Snow and Benford's (1988) framing theory and Freeden's (1996) understanding of ideology, the paper develops a theoretical framework for the analysis of international policy framing. Following an overview of China's rise in global finance, it identifies the core elements of the ideology that has been promoted by Chinese government officials in the Bretton Woods institutions since the onset of the global financial crisis. The paper argues that China's ruling elites will only be able to initiate a shift in the global consensus on acceptable financial policies if the frames that they propagate succeed in striking a balance between ideological continuity and change.
Topic:
Communism, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

7. What Drives Interstate Balancing? Estimations of Domestic and Systemic Factors

Author:
Pascal Abb
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper reviews contending realist assumptions about domestic and systemic impulses for balancing behavior, derives a set of corresponding hypotheses for state actions and submits them to a statistical large‐n analysis for testing. A total of 18 highly conflict‐prone dyads of states are observed over lengthy periods of time in order to gather data for a regression analysis of the effects of different impulses on both the external and internal balancing behavior of the weaker states. In accordance with the results, it is argued that domestic (or unit‐level) factors are highly important in explaining the scope of balancing and often exert a stronger influence than do power gaps between states. As moderating factors, they are especially crucial in clarifying apparent cases of over‐ and underbalancing.
Topic:
Economics, Political Theory, Power Politics, and Governance

8. Resident Evaluation and Expectation of Social Services in Guangzhou

Author:
Ka Ho Mok and Gengua Hueng
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
China's welfare system is a typical “residual welfare regime”, which did not manifest too many flaws in the planned economy era. However, economic reform and market-oriented transformations in recent decades have shaken the original well-balanced “residual” and “needs” pattern. The decline of the “work unit system” has led to two consequences: First, it radically transformed the social and economic structures, which gave rise to increased and diversified needs of social welfare. Second, the government is being pressed to shoulder more responsibility for social welfare provisions. This article adopts a case study approach to examine changing social welfare needs and expectations in Guangzhou, a relatively developed city in southern China. With particular focus on the major strategies adopted by the Guangzhou government in addressing people's welfare needs, this article critically examines how far the new measures have met the changing welfare expectations of citizens in mainland China.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
China and Guangzhou

9. A Comparative Analysis of the Cash Handout Policy of Hong Kong and Macau

Author:
Bruce Kam Kwan Kwong
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In 2011, Hong Kong SAR government announced an unprecedented policy of cash handouts of 6,000 HKD to all permanent residents at the age of 18 or above as a means of defusing public discontent with economic policy and poor governance. Macau SAR has also been distributing similar cash handouts since 2008 to temper public dissatisfaction and widespread demonstrations. Initially, both SAR governments were very reluctant to initiate universal cash handouts. Unlike standard welfare programmes that are budgeted for annually, the cash payment scheme in Hong Kong SAR was a one-off handout. In Macau SAR, however, the payment scheme went from being a short-term policy to a long-term policy, while other welfare programmes were also allocated more public money. This paper argues that although such cash handout policies are avoidable, they are still being adopted by politicians who place self-interest above the public interest.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Hong Kong

10. Rising South Korea: A Minor Player or a Regional Power?

Author:
David Shim and Patrick Flamm
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
South Korea’s rising status in regional and global affairs has received much attention in recent years. But in academic, media and policy debates South Korea is usually regarded as a mere middle power that, due to its geopolitical situation, has only limited leeway in its foreign policy. Accordingly, it must constantly maneuver between its larger neighbors: China, Japan and Russia. However, this perspective neglects the fact that the same geopolitical constraint also applies to other states in the region. No country can easily project its power over others. We use the concept of “regional power” as a template to discuss South Korea’s rising stature in regional and global politics. We argue that Seoul seems quite capable of keeping up with other assumed regional powers. Hence, we not only provide a novel account of South Korea’s foreign policy options but also go beyond current approaches by asking about the (undetermined) possibilities for Seoul’s regional relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, Israel, and South Korea