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281. Albania matkalla Natoon ja Euroopan unioniin - Vapauden ja velvollisuuksien vaikea yhtälö

Author:
Tanja Tamminen
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Naton huippukokouksessa Bukarestissa 2.-4. huhtikuuta 2008 Albania kutsuttiin aloi t tamaan jäsenyys-neuvottelut sotilasliiton kanssa. Monessa suhteessa Länsi-Balkanin kehityksessä hännillä ollut Albania siirtyykin nyt kärkikaartiin. Albanian Nato-jäsenyys on selkeä viesti esimerkiksi parlamenttivaaleihin valmistuvalle Serbialle: Belgradista käsin takapajuisena nähty Albania on nyt siirtynyt selkeästi naapurimaidensa edelle euro-atlanttisessa integraatiossa. Tämän toivotaan herättävän serbialaisäänestäjät valitsemaan EU-tien tulevissa vaaleissa. Naapureiden positiivisella esimerkillä onkin Balkanilla usein tehokkaampi uudistusvoima kuin Brysselin tai Washingtonin julkilausumilla. Albanian rooli on 1990-luvulta ollut rakentava alueellisissa kysymyksissä. Se ei ole vaarantanut mah-dollisuuksiaan Nato-tai EU-jäsenyyteen liian kansallismielisellä Kosovo-politiikalla – se on päinvastoin antanut kaiken tukensa länsiliittoutuman politiikalle Balkanilla. EU on jälleen vahvistanut Länsi-Balkanin jäsenyysnäkymiä poliittisella retoriikalla niin komission tuoreessa Länsi-Balkanin tiedonannossa kuin ulkoministerien EU-Länsi-Balkan ministerikokouk-sen julkilausumassa. Tästä huolimatta Albanian EU-jäsenyyteen on vielä pitkä matka. Maan on ensin toimeenpantava EU:n kanssa solmimansa vakaus-ja assosiaatiosopimus. EU-lähentymisen hitautta kompensoidakseen unioni väläyttelee alueelle viisumivapauden mahdollisuutta. Albania on yhä heikko valtio: se kärsii raastavista sisäpoliittista ristiriidoista ja poliittisen johdon epäkyp-syydestä. EU-jäsenyys on liian kaukainen tavoite velvoittaakseen maan johdon todellisiin uudistuksiin. Monet poliitikot ajattelevat vain lyhyen tähtäimen etuja – vaalimenestystä tai taloudellista voittoa. Kommunistidiktatuurin taakka näkyy yhä yhteiskunnan kehityksessä mutta myös käytännössä muun muassa raskaan teollisuuden saastuttamina alueina tai vaarallisina vanhenevina asevarastoina.
Political Geography:
Europe, Balkans, and Albania

282. The sustainability of Russia's resurgence

Author:
Mikko Patokallio
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In recent years, Russia's resurgence has been driven by favourable conditions rather than solid foundations. Despite the favourable conditions, Russia's resurgence has only achieved mixed results. Buoyed by economic growth, Russia has become wealthy, assertive and confident; but the country has also alienated and provoked its neighbours and the West. Sustaining these conditions is unlikely due to problems resulting from Russia's internal structural weaknesses and assertive foreign policy. Without change, these problems are likely to worsen. Energy exports – the cornerstone of Russia's resurgence – are set to decline. The end of this boom threatens Russia's domestic stability and ability to tackle other long-term threats as external resistance to Russia hardens.
Topic:
Economics and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

283. From Hegemony to New Geopolitical Competition: Assessing Russia's Strategic Footprint In Central Asia

Author:
Igor Torbakov
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Russia's conduct in the post-Soviet space in general and its policies toward Central Asia in particular should be seen within the context of Russia's post-imperial readjustment. The notion of the sphere of “privileged interests” currently advanced by the Kremlin is a clear indication that Russia's search for a new modus operandi with its ex-Soviet neighbours is a painful and, essentially, an open-ended process. Moscow views Central Asia as an area of great strategic importance as it presents both considerable opportunities (due to the region's rich energy resources) and serious threats (stemming from the region's inherent instability and its proximity to volatile Afghanistan). Russia's key interests in Central Asia appear to be preservation of the region's stability, strengthening control over the region's energy resources, and balancing other major actors that are increasing their presence in the region – the United States and China. The effectiveness of the Kremlin's policies in Central Asia seems to be constrained by the nature of Russia's current socio-political system whose key features are authoritarianism and rent-seeking. The latter prompts Moscow to act as a conservative rather than reformist force in the region. Russia's goal of maintaining strategic pre-eminence in Central Asia underpinned by Moscow's significantly increased economic and political clout may ultimately not be realized. The odds are that, given the rise of China, Russia may prove to be a weaker competitor. The European Union's strategic interests increasingly compel the bloc to engage the Central Asian nations, particularly in the spheres of energy and security. Eventually, Russia's wariness of China's growing economic and political clout might prompt Moscow to seek deeper cooperation with Brussels in Central Asia.
Topic:
International Political Economy and Oil
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

284. Hegemonic Project or Survival Strategy? Language Rights in the Former Soviet Space

Author:
Kitty Lam
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Soviet Union's collapse brought to surface a complex ethno-political situation in the territory it formerly spanned. Changes in interstate boundaries separated various ethnic populations from their perceived homelands. This post-Soviet landscape has created policy dilemmas for the Russian government, as some 25 million Russians found themselves living outside the borders of the Russian Federation. How Russian leaders have dealt with issues pertaining to its 'compatriots' in the non-Russian Soviet successor states has become a subject of interest to Western observers. In particular, Western analysts have been observing the expression of 'ethnic diaspora' issues in Russian foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Development, and Population
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia

285. Staying the course - The Options of the West in the Face of Belarus

Author:
Arkady Moshes and Hiski Haukkala
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The West should keep a close eye on Belarus. Events during recent weeks have resulted in some unexpected shifts in Belarus' foreign policy. Apparently, President Lukashenko now sees the main challenge to his power to be coming from Russia's direction, and feels the need to look for support from the West. Over time, this could also herald some potentially far-reaching changes inside the country. One should not expect Lukashenko's regime to vanish overnight. Despite the increases in gas and oil prices, the country's economic situation is likely to remain stable for the foreseeable future. What is more, the political opposition remains weak and fragmented. The Belarusian foreign policy line is not developing within the “Russia-West” axis only. In reality, the Minsk contacts are more diversifi ed than is sometimes believed. Most visible are the ties with Venezuela, Iran, and China, as well as some other Latin American and Arab countries. The Western actors should be cautioned against taking Lukashenko's recent overtures at face value. It is quite likely that they may end up being deceived and merely help Lukashenko perpetuate his regime. More importantly, by rushing to embrace Lukashenko, the West would only discredit its own liberal agenda as well as betray the very opposition forces in Belarus that it has sought to cultivate. Despite the rapid pace of recent events, the West should be in no hurry to react. Time remains to follow the developments. The West – especially the European Union – should voice its continued support for the liberal agenda of the genuine opposition in Belarus and be ready to approach the country with a generous programme of rapprochement should the ice begin to thaw in the as yet frozen river.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

286. A Collapsing Façade – The Russian Duma Election in perspective

Author:
Sinikukka Saari
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Duma election and its results reinforce the prevailing undemocratic trends in Russia. The changes in electoral laws, the election campaign and its biased coverage in the Russian media, the Russian authorities' hostile attitude towards international election observation and the so-called Putin's Plan leave very little hope of democratic pluralism developing in Russia anytime soon. Russia's political system has been built gradually over the years. The system aims at controlling the competition for power and securing the political elite's interests. The system is characterised by non-transparent and manipulated political processes, misleading doublespeak on democratic norms, and the misuse of soft and hard administrative resources. Putin's overwhelming popularity does not compensate for the lack of democratic accountability. Likewise, his possible premiership would not strengthen parliamentarism in Russia because the decision is driven by instrumentalism towards political institutions. Instead, it would create a dangerous precedent for an ad hoc separation of power. Western actors should be more aware that the stability that Putin is often praised for bringing about is not build on solid ground, and they should change their policies accordingly. Promoting democracy – and thus longterm stability – in Russia is in western actors' interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

287. Human rights cooperation between Russia and European intergovernmental organisations: a one-way transference of norms or a mutual process of adaptation?

Author:
Sinikukka Saari
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The European intergovernmental organisations such as the Council of Europe, OSCE and the EU have taken up the task to promote actively human rights in Russia. The organisations differ in methods, instrument s and over-all strategies but the goal of socialising Russia to common European human rights norms is the same for all these organisations. Socialisation means a process through which norms are transmitted from one party to another and they become firmly established domestic practices.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

288. The Implications of China's Rise for Asia and Europe

Author:
Linda Jakobson
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
China has in a very short time span embraced multilateral mechanisms to address a broad range of issues and avoided confrontation with the United States. Both stances have shaped Asian and European views of a rising China. At present, Asian and European leaders take China's word regarding its peaceful intentions as a rising power. However, Asian and European policy-makers tend to refrain from confronting China too strongly on issues sensitive to Beijing (poor implementation of intellectual property rights, disregard for human rights, etc). The more prosperous China grows, the less influence any other country will have over Beijing's policies. A rising China is a challenge to others because of its sheer size, its great need for imported energy, and the environmental degradation it causes due to its ongoing industrialization. The troubled relationship between China and Japan is one of increasing concern and could lead to aggravated tensions in East Asia.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Asia

289. Making a Difference - Why and how Europe should increase its engagement in Ukraine

Author:
Arkady Moshes
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The fate of the transformation in Ukraine is important for Europe. If successful, Ukraine could positively affect the prospect of the systemic change in Russia and would serve as a linchpin of democratization and stabilization in the region stretching from Belarus to the Caspian Sea. A reformed and economically transparent Ukraine could play a significant role in Europe's strategy of diversifying its energy supplies. Since the Orange revolution, Ukraine has demonstrated progress in its reforms. The parliamentary elections in March 2006 confi rmed that the majority of the population remained supportive of further change. All in all, the country has a fair chance of succeeding. At the same time, the challenges are many and the transformation could still fail or stall, particularly if in Europe the reforms are viewed predominantly as a domestic Ukrainian issue, a “homework” rather than as a joint endeavour. European engagement in Ukraine should increase further. Europe could do more to transfer its expertise in transition and adaptation, to help Ukraine address its energy concerns and to make sure that the bilateral relations go beyond cooperation and develop into an integration pattern. Depending on the progress made, the question of Ukraine's EU membership might have to be addressed sooner or later as it has proved to be the most powerful tool for transformation.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

290. Integration Reloaded: Streamlining Moldova's European Course

Author:
Stanislav Secrieru
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In 2009, against all expectations, Moldova managed to shake off its inertia in an effort to leave behind zigzagging reforms and set itself on course for European integration. Although the European option enjoys overwhelming support in Moldova, the experiences of the eu's latest newcomers have shown that aspirations only materialize if you are prepared to do the necessary homework. Is there enough political will and ability to implement reforms in Moldova? What has the new government done so far, domestically and externally, to bring Moldova closer to the eu? What are the obstacles that could hinder reforms in Moldova? How could the eu help to bring about change, accelerating Moldova's Europeanization?
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova