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151. Eurosceptics in the 2014 EP Elections: Protest parties mobilized on national cleavages between globalization winners and losers

Author:
Sanna Salo
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In the May 2014 European Parliament elections, Eurosceptic parties mobilized on a new cleavage between the winners and losers of globalization, which mainstream parties have neglected. The Eurosceptic surge should not be regarded merely as populism or protest, but a legitimate articulation of concerns about the new economic underclass - the globalization losers. The articulation of the new cleavage varies according to domestic political contexts and traditions: in France, the Front National mobilized on themes of ethnic unity and national sovereignty; in Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland raised concerns over monetary independence in the eurozone, while in the UK, UKIP campaigned with anti-immigration and economic welfare themes. Since the EP elections, the Eurosceptics have seemed intent on polishing their images and on being perceived as respectable office-seeking parties, both in the EP and at domestic levels. Respectability requires a non-xenophobic agenda: in the EP, other Eurosceptics refused to cooperate with the FN due to the party's anti-semitic past; yet the AfD, mobilizing on a more economic agenda, managed to join the ECR group dominated by British Conservatives, while UKIP managed to reform its EFD group.
Topic:
Globalization and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

152. Russian thinking in the Ukraine crisis: From drawing a line of defence to seeing a threat to national security

Author:
Katri Pynnöniemi
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Three articles written by Russian foreign policy analyst Sergei Karaganov and published at the turning points of the Ukraine conflict shed light on how the reasoning on Russia's strategic interests in Ukraine has evolved amid the conflict. The meaning of the conflict, as explained in the first essay, is that Russia is drawing a line of defence against Western interference in its sphere of interest. In the second essay, the assertion that with the Crimean operation Russia has forced the West to put an end to the Cold War, is reconfigured into a choice that Russia needs to make between the Western or non-Western path. Finally, in an essay written after the downing of flight MH17, it is argued that without de-escalation the situation in Donbass will become a threat to Russian national security. The evolution of the argumentation shows that some sort of 'reality check' has occurred in the vicinity of the general line. However, while the dangers inherent in the conflict are recognized, Karaganov fails to acknowledge Russia's active involvement in the conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

153. EU Sanctions Against Russia: Europe brings a hard edge to its economic power

Author:
Kristi Raik, Juha Jokela, and Niklas Helwig
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The EU has responded to the Ukraine crisis with a set of political and economic sanctions against Russia which constitute a qualitatively new step in the EU sanctions policy. The EU sanctions against Russia are exceptional and have strategic importance due to a combination of three factors: big power rivalry, the context of a major European crisis with global ramifications, and the costs of the sanctions for the EU itself. The EU has managed to maintain its fragile unity and has applied its collective diplomatic and economic weight in very difficult circumstances. The sanctions have not provided an alternative to diplomatic efforts to solve the crisis - on the contrary, hardening sanctions have been used as a way to put pressure on Russia to seriously engage in diplomacy. The impact of the sanctions on daily developments in Ukraine has been limited and uncertain, but the sanctions have imposed a long-term cost on Russia for violating key international norms. The policy process of Russia sanctions has exposed problems of leadership and coordination. The latest reform of the EU foreign policy machinery has streamlined the preparation of sanctions, but the current system still lacks the necessary resources to match the growing importance of the EU sanctions policy.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Power Politics, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

154. China's Public Opinion Management: Tightening the Grip in the Digital Age

Author:
Elina Sinkkonen
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The number of netizens in China is growing year on year and the increase in the use of mobile technologies to access the internet is the most notable trend of late. Around half of the Chinese population are now internet users. The Chinese leadership has tightened internet control since August 2013. In February 2014, China established Central Internet Security and Information Leading Group, headed by President Xi Jinping, to monitor Chinese cyberspace. Defamatory social media posts were criminalized, and the first sentence was imposed in April 2014. Despite stricter internet control, criticism of the state and politicians has often been tolerated in social media, whereas any content that promotes offline collective action is systematically censored. However, the idea that the development of the internet in China would lead to significant political change seems unwarranted in the current circumstances. Poll data released on September 9 show that almost 90 per cent of the Chinese respondents harbour negative views about Japan. Internet forums and increasing commercialization of the traditional media are contributing to this public opinion trend, which complicates the handling of China's turbulent relations with Japan.
Topic:
Politics, Communications, Mass Media, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Japan, China, and Asia

155. How to Reform the UN Climate Negotiations? Perspectives from the past, present and neighbour negotiations

Author:
Antto Vihma
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
There is a pressing need to clarify, institutionalize and increase the efficiency of the work of the UN climate negotiations. This task starts with a systematic search for possible solutions and the political will to begin a long battle to push them through. At the next stage of maturity, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change should streamline its work programme, cut sessions, eliminate overlaps, and delete agenda items. These kinds of reforms will be politically fraught, and in practice need to be accomplished together with a package of substantive decisions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
United Nations

156. The Post-2015 Agenda and the EU: Faltering in the Global Development Partnership?

Author:
Marikki Stocchetti
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The era of the Millennium Development Goals and the Millennium Declaration expires in September 2015. As the largest donor of international development aid and trader with the developing countries, the EU has a key interest in the future outcome. It has also made binding commitments to support developing countries' own efforts to fulfil the present goals, as well as to act as a global partner. In the ongoing consultation process, the UN is pushing ahead with an enabling, universal development paradigm with an enhanced development partnership that goes well beyond traditional development assistance. Whereas the EU and the UN share common ground on human rights, governance and security issues, their preliminary proposals differ significantly on the question of a global partnership. The European Commission has tabled a proposal for the Union that is still based on a very conventional donor-recipient approach, which the UN seeks to reject. The European Commission proposal is problematic because it fails to present a comprehensive analysis of the current Millennium Development Goal on a global partnership, especially regarding trade and debt issues. Instead, it focuses on developing countries' domestic policies. The EU still has time to correct this as the process unfolds. Should it fail to do so, it is highly unlikely that other donors will take up the UN proposal and push it through in the inter-governmental negotiations.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Human Rights, Foreign Aid, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe and United Nations

157. Putin's reactive reforms: Unfavourable conditions are forcing the Kremlin to change the rules of the game

Author:
Sean Roberts
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Following Vladimir Putin's presidential election victory in March 2012, the Russian political system has undergone significant change. The latest changes affect the way regional elections are conducted. However, a number of puzzles remain, not least the intentions of the Putin administration. Alongside liberalising reforms, such as the return of direct elections for regional governors and the easing of party registration requirements, we see new restrictions that close the political field. Nonetheless, the events of the past 20 months do reveal a distinct change in the reform process, as the Putin administration reluctantly adjusts to unfavourable political and economic conditions. In Putin's first two presidential terms, 2000-2008, reform was 'progressive', aimed at extending the Kremlin's power and authority. The latest changes, in contrast, are 'reactive' and involve an inevitable loss of control over political processes. One immediate implication is that political processes will become less predictable, as the Kremlin tries to reorganise its system of governance. But, in the longer-term there is a danger that the use of political reform as a substitute for democratic change will undermine the legitimacy of the entire political system.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia

158. Neither neutral nor non-aligned: The Europeanization of Finland's foreign and security policy

Author:
Teemu Palosaari
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Finland joined the European Union in the first wave of post-Cold War enlargement in 1995. All the applicants – including the neutral countries, Austria, Finland and Sweden – had to accept and be able to implement the Union's common foreign and security policy. !is criterion was implicitly aimed at the aforementioned neutral applicants. Before the accession, the Commission deemed that Finland's policy of neutrality – "or what is left of it" as the report put it – could pose problems for the Union: "in respect of the common foreign and security policy, the question arises to what extent Finland, which, as an armed neutral, has always laid great emphasis on the capability of defending the national territory, can fully share some of its objectives, such as the safeguarding of the independence and security of the Union (Article J.4)".
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

159. European Defence Under Scrutiny: What can be expected from the European Council?

Author:
Tuomas Iso-Markku
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The decision to place security and defence policy on the agenda of the December European Council and the intensive pre-summit preparations have given renewed impetus to this policy area and raised the level of expectations ahead of the meeting. While there is now widespread agreement among the member states on the main challenges facing the EU in the area of security and defence, conflicting political and economic interests still exist and continue to hamper the Union's efforts. The December summit is unlikely to engage in a major strategic debate, but it will discuss steps to improve the implementation of the Union's security and defence policy, to enhance cooperation in the area of capabilities, and to support the European defence industry. A major novelty is the European Commission's stronger involvement, which remains controversial, however. The most crucial task for the EU heads of state and government is to translate the momentum created by the pre-summit process into a lasting commitment on the part of all actors involved, by putting forward binding timelines, specific targets and concrete follow-up projects.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Europe

160. UN Statebuilding at a Turning Point: What's new about the intervention brigade and peacekeeping drones?

Author:
Touko Piiparinen
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Last March the UN Security Council authorised the so-called Intervention Brigade to undertake 'targeted offensive operations' against illegal armed groups operating in the Eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The Brigade, which undertook its first operations in August, differs from traditional UN peacekeeping in terms of its robust mandate and mobility. The UN has simultaneously adopted a new technology, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), in the DRC, which represents the first-ever use of UAVs as a part of UN peacekeeping. UAVs will be deployed in the DRC at the end of November, and start operating in early December The Intervention Brigade and UAVs have been hailed as a turning point in UN peacekeeping. However, they should not be perceived as completely new or standalone instruments of UN conflict management. They could instead be best understood as a continuum and extension of the long held state building doctrine applied by the UN. These new instruments enable the UN to perform one of its key functions of state building and protection of civilians, namely controlling and policing the whole territory of a state where an intervention has been undertaken more effectively than before. The lessons learned from the UN peace operation in the DRC indicate that the UN state building doctrine remains self-contradictory on account of the tendency of UN state building missions to spill over into wars and the mismatch between the ambitious goals set for state building and the chronic lack of resources. The Intervention Brigade and UAVs can potentially help the UN to resolve that mismatch by enhancing the UN's state building and protection capacities. However, they cannot resolve the other major disadvantage of state building, namely collateral damage inflicted in state building wars, and may even aggravate that problem.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Science and Technology, Fragile/Failed State, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa