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61. Brexit: No ordinary third country

Author:
Andrew Duff
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
Following the start of the Brexit negotiations on 19 June, Andrew Duff reviews the state of play, namely the discussions on EU citizens’ rights, the Irish border, the financial commitments and the future role of the ECJ. He welcomes the Commission’s proposal to create a Joint Committee to manage the actual exiting process. Duff regrets the irresolution on the British side, which hampers the possibility to define the future relationship with the European Union and consequently the transitional arrangements that UK business so badly needs. Given the UK’s state of confusion after the electoral results of 2016 and 2017, he suggests that the EU must make an offer to London on the basis of a wider reflection on the future not just of the smaller European Union but of the wider Europe.
Topic:
International Political Economy and Brexit
Political Geography:
Europe

62. Kosovo's EU candidate status: a goal within reach

Author:
Zephyr Dessus, Albana Rexha, Albana Merja, and Corina Stratulat
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
Ever since its declaration of independence in 2008, Kosovo has made European integration one of its key foreign policy objectives. Having made headway over the past years in its efforts to draw nearer to the European Union – most recently by signing a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU – Kosovo is now eager to take the next step in its EU integration process: to apply for EU membership and receive candidate status. However, with five member states still unwilling to recognise its statehood, Kosovo finds itself in a unique and difficult position regarding its eligibility to advance towards the EU and eventually accede to the European Union.
Topic:
International Affairs and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:
Kosovo

63. Crans-Montana - A ‘now or never’ moment for a Cyprus settlement?

Author:
Amanda Paul
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
On 28 June under the auspices of the UN, the leaders of the Greek and Turkish Cypriot Communities, Nicos Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci, will meet in Crans-Montana, Switzerland, in a fresh effort to resolve the decades-old Cyprus problem following a recent five-month impasse in the talks. The three guarantor states, Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom will also participate. A solution would be a win-win for both communities as well as the broader region. It would not only enhance the Cypriot economy, including possible new energy projects, but also bring a new climate of security and stability to the Eastern Mediterranean. However, while progress has been made on many areas, significant differences remain on the issue of security and guarantees. Overcoming these differences will on both sides require political courage, creative thinking and a readiness to compromise and let go of maximalist goals. Yet, even if the two leaders clinch an agreement, selling it to their respective communities will be a significant challenge as Cypriots are far from prepared for the comprises that an agreement requires.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Cyprus

64. The long journey to end energy poverty in Europe

Author:
Claire Dhéret and Marco Giuli
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
Energy poverty, defined as the "inability to afford basic energy services such as adequate warmth, cooling, lighting and the energy to power appliances due to a combination of low income, high energy expenditure and poor energy efficiency of dwellings",2 has recently been on the radar of policymakers, leading to some efforts in tackling the issue. Yet, developing adequate policy solutions has remained difficult both at the national and European level, not least due to the complexity and the multidimensional nature of the phenomenon and the limited competences of the European Union (EU) in the social area. Thus, despite some positive developments, there still is a long journey towards eradicating energy poverty. This paper presents some milestones along the way and recommendations for the future.
Topic:
Climate Change and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

65. What now? Options for Brexit – And a cry for help

Author:
Andrew Duff
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
In this paper, Andrew Duff reviews the intended and unintended consequences of the results of last week’s general election. He argues that: 1. Since both Labour and Conservatives campaigned to complete Brexit, there will be no more talk of the possible revocation of Article 50. Brexit does indeed mean Brexit. 2. Now Brexit is free from the shadow of immediate electioneering. And the new composition of the House of Commons has improved the chances that if there is an Article 50 treaty it will be approved. 3. The unintended consequence of the snap election has been to make a softer Brexit more likely. Mercifully, we should not hear again that “no deal is better than a bad deal” as a bust up of the Article 50 talks would lead to the collapse of the May government and the holding of another general election, much-feared by the Conservative party.
Topic:
International Political Economy and Brexit
Political Geography:
Europe

66. Trump’s America: the ordinary superpower

Author:
Giovanni Grevi
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
After four months in office, the Trump administration has not triggered a revolution in US foreign policy but is shaking up the status quo. The path-breaking decision to withdraw from the Paris agreement on climate change reflects the president's abrasive 'America first' rhetoric. On a range of other issues, long-established patterns and commitments have been challenged so far more in words than in deeds. However, the mix of nationalism and pragmatism, ideology and realism, improvisation and policy reversals that Trump's foreign policy approach displays has begun to significantly affect the profile and perceptions of the US in the world. Under Trump, the US is shifting away from its traditional role as ultimate guarantor of the international liberal order at increasing speed.
Topic:
Political stability and Post Truth Politics
Political Geography:
America

67. European cybersecurity policy – Trends and prospects

Author:
Iva Tasheva
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
Increased digitalisation has brought both economic benefits and cybersecurity challenges. According to Europol, an expanding cybercriminal economy is exploiting our increasingly Internet-enabled lives and low levels of digital skills. This became publicly evident in May 2017 with the biggest ransomware attack so far; the WannaCry cryptoworm exploited a security gap in widely used, and often not updated versions of the Windows operational system. The cyber weapon, which enabled hackers to lock (encrypt) the victims' computer files until they paid a ransom, was stolen from the US National Security Agency. It spread within a few hours, affecting 200,000 computers, compromising the security and preventing the work of critical infrastructures, such as hospitals (NHS), public transport (Deutsche Bahn), banks (Deutsche Bank), service providers (Telefónica), delivery services (FedEx), and businesses across the globe.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus