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62. Three myths about Catalonia’s independence movement
- Author:
- Francisco de Borja
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Spain faces its worst constitutional crisis since the failed 1981 coup d’état, driven by Brexit style populism A romantic framing of foreign crises where self-determination is involved is a common trap. The imagery of “oppressors” vs “freedom fighters” is appealing and, to their credit, the leaders of Catalonia have been successful in promoting their agenda abroad in just such terms – sometimes going as far as referencing Nelson Mandela’s struggle against apartheid. Combined with the soft power appeal of cosmopolitan Barcelona, there is much confusion abroad on the nature of the current crisis in Catalonia, and myths and stereotypes abound – helped by the likes of Assange and similar figures. This article seeks to test some of these myths, in order to shed light not only on the Catalonian referendum debate but on the wider issues for pluralistic democracies and the rule of law. The dynamics in the Catalan debate are similar to those at play in other European countries in the age of populism and are therefore of fundamental importance for the future of Europe as a whole.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Spain
63. Yemen’s Forgotten War: How Europe Can Lay the Foundations for Peace
- Author:
- Adam Baron
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- After years of conflict Yemen is on the verge of absolute collapse. Institutions across the country are falling apart, while a plethora of armed groups have taken advantage of the power vacuum to claim leadership over key territories, leading to even greater fragmentation of the country. The conflict, and the accompanying Saudi-led intervention, has brought about the Middle East's most severe humanitarian crisis, with 86 percent of the population in need of humanitarian assistance. Yemen is facing a lost generation, as hundreds of thousands of Yemeni children grow up without an education or enough food to eat. The EU and its member states have a moral and strategic interest in ending the conflict. Failure to act could result in Yemen becoming a new hub for globally oriented terror groups, and could spur a new wave of refugees into Europe. The EU should make the most of its comparatively neutral position in Yemen to pave the way for post-conflict stabilisation and reach out to groups that have, to date, been marginalised in the ongoing peace process. The EU can complement UN efforts and may be faced with the responsibility of filling in for an increasingly isolationist United States.
- Topic:
- War and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Yemen
64. Heavy Metal Diplomacy: Russia’s Political Use of its Military in Europe since 2014
- Author:
- Mark Galeotti
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Since 2014, Russia has mounted an extensive, aggressive, and multi-platform attempt to use its military and the threat of force as instruments of coercive diplomacy, intended to divide, distract, and deter Europe from challenging Russia’s activities in its immediate neighbourhood. The main elements are threats of potential military action, wargames which pointedly simulate such operations, the deployment of combat units in ways which also convey a political message, and intrusions close to and into European airspace, waters and even territory. The actual impact of these policies is varied, sometimes counter-productive, and they depend on coordination with other means of diplomacy and influence. But they have nonetheless contributed to a fragmentation of unity within both NATO and the European Union. ‘Heavy metal diplomacy’ is likely to continue for the immediate future. This requires a sharper sense on the part of the EU and its member states of what is a truly military move and what is political, a refusal to rise to the bait, and yet a display of convincing unity and cross-platform capacity when a response is required.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Russia
65. China’s investment in influence: the future of 16+1 cooperation
- Author:
- Angela Stanzel, Agatha Kratz, Justyna Szczudlik, and Dragan Pavlićević
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- China faced hard times in 2016 – at least when it comes to promoting its investment in Europe. The European Union is one of its most important economic and trading partners and the final destination of China’s flagship initiative, the New Silk Road. However, some EU member states have recently become increasingly critical of China’s push for more investment in Europe. Beijing has invested significant effort in building a new entry point into Europe through the central and eastern European (CEE) countries – in particular, through the 16+1 framework. As reflected in Agatha Kratz’s article in this edition of China Analysis, the CEE region is attractive to China thanks to its strategic geographical position for the New Silk Road project, its high-skilled yet cheap labour, and its open trade and investment environment.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- China
66. Big is beautiful? State-owned enterprise mergers under Xi Jinping
- Author:
- Wendy Leutert and François Godement
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- It is merger season again in China, as evidenced by the sources drawn on in this special issue of China Analysis. But who really knows why? Our contributor Wendy Leutert points out how the government’s goals have shifted within the last year alone. In September 2015, new guidelines emphasising the importance of separating state suppliers of public goods from more commercial state firms suggested a possible shift towards the latter having to play by the rules of the market. Today, the more traditional goal of mopping up excess supply and inefficient companies seems to have taken over.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China
67. Trouble on the tracks: Averting the Turkey-EU ‘train wreck’
- Author:
- Asli Aydıntaşbaş
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- With the European Parliament decision to “freeze” accession talks, Turkey’s decades-long engagement with Europe is in crisis. In 2016 Turkey-EU relations took a step forward, with a historic deal on refugee resettlement, but also a step back, with a sweeping crackdown in the wake of the failed 15 July coup and global criticism of Turkey’s human rights situation. Instead of populism and resentment, both Europe and Turkey need to develop “strategic patience” to anchor Turkey to Europe. Turkey’s history has been an ebb and flow between Westernisation and nativist reaction. It is important for the EU to think long-term about Turkey. One way to bypass the current impasse might be to offer Ankara an upgraded customs union, with political benchmarks for market access. Despite tensions, Turkey and the European Council should think about their shared interests and high degree of integration to avert a “train-wreck”.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey
68. China and Russia: Gaming the West
- Author:
- Mathieu Duchâtel and François Godement
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- In September 2016, Russia held joint naval manoeuvres in the South China Sea with China, bringing some of its best ships to the party. Two weeks later, China shied away from joining Russia in a veto of yet another Western resolution on Syria at the UN. The discrepancy sums up the extent and the limits of the strategic convergence between both countries. The “axis of convenience” between China and Russia has, without question, grown larger. And the positive dynamics pushing cooperation forward are largely economic. But there is also a negative dynamic, coming from the West. Both countries have a perception of regime insecurity that emerges from the international promotion of democracy, and the attractiveness of corruption-free and comparably safe Western societies for individuals, be they Chinese or Russian.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and China
69. EU differentiation and the push for peace in Israel-Palestine
- Author:
- Hugh Lovatt
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The adoption and streamlining of differentiation measures represents a unique and effective European contribution towards Israeli-Palestinian peace at a time in which the Middle East Peace Process in its current configuration has failed. Differentiation disincentives Israel’s illegal acquisition of territory and re-affirms the territorial basis of a two-state solution. It also feeds an Israeli debate over national priorities by framing the negative consequences that Israel will face in its bilateral relations if it continues its annexation of Palestinian territory. Despite Israeli efforts to erode consensus within the EU, differentiation continues to receive broad support among member states. EU officials must allow the correct, full, and effective implementation of existing legislation and policy positions relating to Israeli settlements European entities engaging in financial activity with Israeli settlements – even indirectly – could face serious legal, financial and reputational risks. The EU and its member states should offer more advice on the consequences of doing business with settlement-related entities.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Israel
70. Terror overseas: understanding China’s evolving counter-terror strategy
- Author:
- Mathieu Duchâtel
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- International terrorism has emerged in recent years as a direct threat to Chinese nationals living overseas. As China's footprint becomes increasingly global its exposure to the risk of terror attacks has increased too. China’s approach to international terrorism is becoming militarised. This trend has the potential to accelerate if Chinese nationals are victims of new attacks overseas. Although China is an active and responsible player in the UN with clearly expressed priorities and an interest in protecting its citizens overseas, it is not taking a strong role in leading and shaping the UN’s counter-terrorism agenda. The EU should take stock of the ongoing transformation of China’s approach to explore a modest upgrade of its current policy of cautious engagement. When engaging with China the EU should make clear that an overly politicised approach will be an obstacle to cooperation, and be upfront in setting the conditions of cooperation. The EU should not underestimate what China has to offer but shouldn't make big compromises either.
- Topic:
- Terrorism and International Security
- Political Geography:
- China