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41. Reframing Nuclear De-Alert: Decreasing the Operational Readiness of U.S. and Russian Nuclear Arsenals

Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Nearly twenty years after the end of the Cold War, Russia and the United States continue to maintain hundreds of nuclear weapons capable of striking the other side, and to have at least some of these nuclear forces at Cold War levels of alert, that is, ready to fire within a few minutes of receiving an order to do so. Even during the Cold War, alert levels were not static and moved up or down in step with changes in the strategic and tactical environments. While the operational readiness of some weapon systems has been reduced, there has been no major change in the readiness levels of most of the nuclear weapon systems in the post–Cold War era. This is in considerable part because Russia and the United States believe that despite fundamental changes in their overall relationship, vital interest requires maintaining a high level of nuclear deterrence. The post–Cold War experience also demonstrates that alert levels can be reduced and measures can be taken to reduce the risk of accidents or unauthorized takeover of nuclear weapons. Further measures could be taken to reduce operational readiness of nuclear arsenals. U.S. and Russian experts alike stressed survivability as a key element in the acceptance of these measures because of its importance to maintaining deterrence.
Topic:
Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and United Nations

42. Countering Violent Extremism: Lessons Learned

Author:
Jonathan R. Mroz
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
In his inaugural address, U.S. President Barack Obama told the Muslim world they would be judged by what they build, not what they destroy. But even if those who build far outnumber those who destroy, many governments and societies will continue to be confronted by the specter of violent extremism. The challenge they face is how to devise effective strategies to counter the extremists and encourage long-term solutions that go beyond merely containing the problem to addressing its root causes. This is the challenge we posed to a wide variety of participants in the EastWest Institute's Countering Violent Extremism Initiative.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
United States

43. The Future of the CFE Treaty

Author:
Jeffrey D. McCausland
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The future of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, widely considered to be the cornerstone of European security, was thrown into stark question when the Russian Federation announced in December 2007 that it would suspend its participation in the treaty. The 1990 treaty, considered the most ambitious and far ranging conventional arms control treaty in history, established limits on the numbers of conventional military hardware deployed in Europe, required substantial reductions in conventional arsenals, and created an intrusive regime of inspections and verification. In many ways, the treaty changed the face of European security by establishing new, cooperative political-military relationships.
Topic:
Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

44. Euro-Atlantic Security: One Vision, Three Paths

Author:
Piin-Fen Kok
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The Euro-Atlantic security scene is characterized by a loss of mutual confidence, renewed tensions, and serious disagreements regarding not only practices but principles. Those trends, if not corrected, will produce negative strategic consequences for the security of Europe. New opportunities have emerged today for rethinking the security situation in the Euro-Atlantic region, for strengthening confidence, changing mutual relations, and, if need be, institutions. A basis for this can be found in the hopes for improved U.S.- Russian relations expressed by U.S. President Barack Obama, in the initiative by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on reforming the European security architecture, as well as in the process of elaboration of the new NATO strategic concept.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, and International Security
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

45. Groundbreaking U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Iran

Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Does Europe face a military threat from Iran, and if so what is the nature of that threat? What is Iran's nuclear capability today and what might it be in the future? What ballistic missile capability does Iran have today and what might it have in the future? If Europe had a missile defense system, would that system protect Europe? These questions have been widely discussed in the popular media, often on the basis of misleading information. This report, which has been written by a group of U.S. and Russian specialists, provides an assessment of the Iranian nuclear and missile programs and an evaluation of the European Missile Defense system proposed by the Bush administration. It is not yet clear what the Obama administration's policy on missile defense will be.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Iran

46. Countering Violent Extremism: The Fate of the Tamil Tigers

Author:
S. Azmat Hassan
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Extremism in every form is a major concern for the global community. Though the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (also known as LTTE, or more commonly, as the Tamil Tigers) do not share the same religious motivations as the violent extremist groups that tend to garner the most interest today, they merit much greater attention from the international community. Their longevity, success, and tactics – their revival of suicide bombing in particular – render them a formidable foe. The protracted conflict between the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE offers several important lessons regarding effective strategies for combating violent extremism. These lessons hold – and indeed are all the more relevant – in the face of the recent military gains of government forces over the LTTE.
Topic:
Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
South Asia

47. The Pivotal Relationship: How Obama Should Engage China

Author:
Liu Xuecheng and Robert Oxnam
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Young and charismatic Barack Obama won a historic victory in the U.S. presidential election. This victory has sparked an international frenzy filled with hope and expectations. Obama, who ran on a platform of “change,” has vowed to rebuild U.S. national power, reshape its international image, and renew its global leadership. However, he will face daunting internal and external challenges—fighting the disastrous financial crisis and economic recession, bringing the war on terror to an end, and coping with emerging powers, including China. What relevance does his victory have for U.S. policy toward China? Will Obama's China policy be one of change or continuity? What would we expect from the Obama administration in cultivating the future course for a China-U.S. constructive and cooperative partnership? These questions are the real concerns of the Chinese people as political power changes hands in the United States.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States and China

48. The Security of Pakistan's Nuclear Facilities

Author:
Ken Berry
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
International concern over the security of Pakistan's nuclear facilities has significantly increased with recent turmoil there. But how justified is this concern? Pakistan carries out a full range of activities relating to nuclear weapons: from mining and milling raw materials; through the production of heavy water, tritium, highly enriched uranium and plutonium; to weaponization. It also has an advanced missile program. Yet little is actually known about the security of all these facilities, apart from the fact that they are guarded by a specially trained force of 10,000 separate from, but under the control of, the military.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Pakistan

49. Narcoterrorism

Author:
Jonas Hartelius
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The concept of “narcoterrorism” was introduced in 1983 by the Peruvian President Belaunde Terry to designate terrorist-like attacks against his country's drug enforcement police. Drug criminals utilized methods from political assailants to influence the politics of the country by causing terror and obstructing justice. Later, ideology-driven terrorist organizations took up illegal drug trade as a source of income.
Topic:
Terrorism

50. A Day in the Future - Accelerating Solutions to Security Threats

Author:
Leland Russell and Greg Austin
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The security environment of the future will be shaped by transnational threats evolving from wars, violent extremism, natural disasters, pandemics, and unaddressed systemic problems—including poverty, organized crime, and environmental degradation. Technology will remain a force-multiplier for violent extremists, not only for higher levels of lethality, but for propaganda dissemination. Real-time, global communication will exacerbate the psychological impact of potential threats and the aftermath of incidents.