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31. Russia and the World: A New Deal

Author:
Alexei Arbatov and Dag Hartelius
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Ten years after the end of the Cold War, Russian leaders still have to recognize not only the irreplaceable importance of the Western countries and Japan as partners, but also the rapidly growing relative importance of the European Union, since the special relationship with the U.S., based on strategic deterrence, is becoming less relevant. The development of relations with the EU should now be at the top of the Russian agenda. This presents the EU with a certain challenge but is also an enormous opportunity for developing enlarged markets and advancing improved security. At the same time, the U.S. will remain a key partner for Russia in international affairs and in the handling of harmful Soviet legacies, such as disposing of nuclear and chemical wastes. Also, Russia will have to move towards deeper regional economic integration in East Asia instead of approaching the problems in this region from a traditional security perspective.
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union, and Moscow

32. Building Subregional Relations In and Around the CIS space: Prospects and Challenges

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The EastWest Institute (EWI) is currently running a one year project (July 1998-July 1999) project entitled 'Boundaries Without Barriers: The Role of Sub-Regional Relations in the Eurasian Space'. This is part of a highly successful research and policy-oriented project on the role of subregional relations in the new Europe that the EWI has been running since 1996. The project identifies emerging patterns of (principally) intergovernmental relations between groups of states within the OSCE space; assesses the contribution these subregional relations make to comprehensive security building; and promotes greater recognition of subregionalism in the policies and practices of wider international organization.
Topic:
Government and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

33. Russia's Shrinking Role in the South

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The perception that the disintegration of the Soviet Union constituted a major challenge to Russia's security is of a political and psychological, rather than an economic nature. The countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia—Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—are neither an irreplaceable resource base for the Russian economy nor the only available market for its non-competitive products. Any efforts to see it otherwise will induce the region to strengthen its economic and military security with the help of outside powers as a buffer against Russia's ambitions for greater control.
Topic:
Security and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Kazakhstan, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Soviet Union, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Angola

34. Banking Sector Development in Kazakhstan

Author:
Eugene Spiro
Publication Date:
12-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The EastWest Institute convened in partnership with the Kazakhstan Institute of Management, Economics and Strategic Research (KIMEP) International Conference on Banking Policies on December 9-12, 1998. The purpose of the conference was to present Kazakh officials, academicians and bankers with practices (best and otherwise) in CEE and the West on bank privatization and reduction of the state's role in banking; costs and benefits of foreign strategic investment in the banking sector; and issues related to bank supervision, regulation and deposit insurance.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Kazakhstan and Asia

35. Strategic Images: Perceptions of Russia in the USA and of America in Russia

Author:
Dag Hartelius and Natasha Randall
Publication Date:
11-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Over the last year we have witnessed a deteriorating climate in Russian-Western relations - or at least this has been the perception. The Russian financial crisis has accelerated the trend in Russia to blame the West - in particular the US - for their troubles. In America and Europe a new debate has been spawned on what kind of Russia we are now dealing with. Old truths, or old perceptions, are being questioned and relations are being reassessed.
Topic:
International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, and Asia

36. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 5: September 9, 1998

Author:
Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The Communist dominated Duma sent a stern message to President Yelstin on September 7th by rejecting his nominee, Viktor Chernomyrdin, for the second time. The vote was 273 against and 138 for (with one abstention). While Chernomyrdin's showing improved substantially from the Duma's first ballot, he still fell far short of the 226 votes needed for Duma approval. Furthermore, his gains came largely from Zhirinovsky's nationalist faction, which has a crass history of trading votes to “the highest bidder.” Yelstin's opposition, on the other hand, benefited from the support of independent deputies comprising a group called “Regions of Russia”: their approval of Chernomyrdin dropped from 86% to 50% in the second round.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

37. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 4: August 31, 1998

Author:
Allen Collinsworth, Robert Orttung, Rado Petkov, and Rick Petree
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
At approximately 12.30 p.m. EST today, the Duma rejected Chernomyrdin's nomination as Prime Minister by an open ballot vote of 251-94 (with 105 abstaining). 226 votes are needed to confirm him. Chernomyrdin's own Our Home Is Russia party provided most of his support (64 votes). Zhirinovsky's party, the Liberal Democrats, abstained (49 votes). Analysts underscored the weakness of support for Chernomyrdin by noting that, in the first round of voting on the nomination of Prime Minister Kiriyenko five months ago, Kiriyenko polled 143 votes in favor. This was in secret balloting, however, which to some extent invalidates the comparison.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

38. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 3: August 27, 1998

Author:
Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The latest private reports from Moscow indicate that the Duma is very likely to reject Viktor Chernomyrdin's candidacy for Prime minister next week. Tomorrow, Aug. 28 th , at 3:00 pm, the Duma and the Federation Council will meet to decide whether to recommend a vote on Chernomyrdin's candidacy. Whereas Chernomyrdin's chances are bleak, the fluid nature of current Russian political situation makes it impossible to firmly rule out his confirmation as prime minister, a post which he very much wants.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

39. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 2: August 25, 1998

Author:
Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Since our Aug. 20th report, the situation in Russia has developed dramatically. On Friday (Aug. 21st), the lower house of the Russian parliament (the Duma) overwhelmingly called for Yeltsin's resignation and changes in the government and the leadership of the central bank. The Duma also passed a non-binding resolution demanding nationalization of some banks and restriction of foreign participation in domestic capital markets. In response, the RTS index of leading Russian shares fell 5.56% to 81.76 on negligible trading volume of $4.2 million. Central bank head Dubinin announced plans to activate Russia's precious metals reserves (approximately $5 billion of $15.1 billion total foreign exchange reserves) to support the ruble. On Sunday, Aug. 23rd, in an action anticipated in our Aug. 17th report, Yeltsin dismissed Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko and installed in his place Viktor Chernomyrdin.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

40. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 1: August 20, 1998

Author:
Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Russian capital markets were already in what George Soros described as a “financial meltdown in . . . its terminal phase” on August 12th. Since then, capital markets have deteriorated significantly in reaction to measures announced by the Russian Government on Monday, Aug. 17th (summarized in Section II below). IEWS is actively evaluating the nature and extent of the crisis and trying to project its likely course.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia