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21. The Federal Option for Afghanistan

Author:
Henry E. Hale
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The future security and stability of Russia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus–all struggling to deal with the simultaneous forces of terrorism, crime, narcotics, poverty, and disease–require a successful political and economic transformation in Afghanistan. A federal system was rejected in favor of aunitary state structure for Afghanistan, but the government of Hamid Karzai has faced great difficulty extending central authority much beyond Kabul. New questions about state-building there and elsewhere in the region should compel policymakers to reconsider federalism among a range of options for how best to organize this complex and diverse society. Although critics charge that a federal solution to state organization enhances social cleavages and fosters instability, federalism could be aviable and effective option if constructed to minimize the power and influence of the demographically dominant group.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Asia, and Kabul

22. Transatlantic Energy Security and the Caspian Basin: Moving Towards a Common Agenda

Author:
Adam N. Stulberg and Hendrik Cosijn
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Once considered an impediment to stable development and a catalyst for a new “Great Game,” Caspian energy may play a stabilizing role in world markets and geopolitics after all. With the West's growing dependence on hydrocarbon imports, growing tensions in the Middle East, and Moscow's emergence as a major player in 21st century energy politics, the Caspian region is poised to become a focal point for cooperation between the United States, Europe, and Russia. Policymakers in Washington, Brussels, and Moscow share a common interest in preventing the Caspian Basin from lapsing into another Persian Gulf, where windfalls in oil revenues have fueled instability and extremism. They also recognize that efforts to extract and export Caspian energy must advance regional development and stability. Thus far, however, shared interests have not yielded real transatlantic partnership on Caspian energy issues. Different strategic orientations and preferred approaches for unlocking Caspian energy threaten to mar prospects for broadening and deepening transatlantic cooperation in the region. To date, the U.S., Europe, and Russia have pursued parochial interests in the Caspian Basin without much regard for each other. The time is ripe for American, European, and Russian policymakers to take stock of the burgeoning confluence of interests, mount a concerted effort to prevent backsliding, and cement a common agenda by forging a trilateral dialogue on Caspian energy issue.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Washington, Asia, and Moscow

23. The United States, Europe, and Russia: Toward a Global Energy Security Policy

Author:
David L. Goldwyn
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Together, the United States, Europe, and Russia can help to diversify the global energy supply by creating a Global Strategic Petroleum Reserve (GSPR) filled largely with oil from Russia and other states in the Caspian Basin. Such a move would mitigate U.S. and European dependence on Middle East oil and help to stabilize world oil prices. Other important beneficiaries of a GSPR would be the Asia-Pacific economies outside the OECD that currently lack strategic reserves. A GSPR offering access to China and other Asian economies would help anchor these states in an important, positive-sum arrangement that highlights shared energy security interests with Russia and the West. If managed responsibly, creating the GSPR will not antagonize OPEC countries, which themselves benefit from stable energy markets. Moreover, developing the GSPR will encourage the reform and modernization of Russian and other transition countries' energy economies and give real substance to collaboration on energy issues between Russia, the EU, and the U.S. If coupled with close collaboration on Caspian energy development, the creation of a GSPR would make U.S. and EU energy ties with Russia and its neighbors sources of substantial, long-term strength.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

24. Reconceptualizing NATO

Author:
István Gyarmati and Christopher Walker
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
With the NATO summit in Prague less than six months away, leaders on both sides of the Atlantic must quickly construct a new vision for the Alliance. Making NATO relevant for the 21st century requires developing a realistic plan for restructuring forces and re-examining long-held assumptions. NATO leaders must strike a course that recognizes a dramatically changed international landscape. Terrorism, organized crime, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and related technologies, and militant fundamentalism have risen to the top of most threat assessments. NATO has not yet made the adjustments necessary to meet these new threats. Political and commercial rifts between the United States and Europe are growing wider, and the technology and capabilities gap between America and its allies draws into question the relevance of European militaries. At the same time, the Alliance is poised to invite a set of new members – possibly as many as seven – to join its ranks. Policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic thus face the daunting challenge of meeting the commitment of enlarging the Alliance while simultaneously transforming it.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, America, Europe, and Asia

25. Russia's Southern Regions: Threats and Opportunities

Author:
Robert Orttung
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Instability in Russia's southern regions poses a threat to the continuation of the country's overall political and economic reform, and to regional stability in Central Eurasia. These regions, which already possess Russia's most fragile local economics, face a variety of problems emanating from the weak and failing states to their immediate south. Most visibly, there is the threat of terrorism, an increasing flow of illegal narcotics from producers in Afghanistan, an influx of contraband goods that wipe out Russian jobs, and illegal immigration. With few resources and extensive corruption among key officials, Russia's southern regions are poorly equipped to deal with these problems. Developing mutually beneficial trade links between Russia's southern regions and its neighbors in Central Asia, China, and Mongolia can mitigate instability and economic stagnation in this region, help to rebuild regional economies, generate income, and better enable governments to provide security and basic human services to their people. The West can support these developments as well as help combat organized crime, target corruption, and improve border security.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, Mongolia, and Asia

26. Toward the Common Good: Building a New U.S.-Russian Relationship

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The Bush administration faces a Russia that is at a critical and perhaps defining juncture in its history. The country's leadership has launched a reform agenda that, if carried through, will take Russia further down the path toward becoming a modern, market-oriented democracy. The resistance to change in Russia is significant, and the ultimate success of these reforms is far from assured. Yet the reform initiative gives the United States and Russia an opportunity to set their relationship on a new foundation that will enhance international peace, stability, freedom and prosperity in an increasingly interdependent world.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

27. Russian Federal Budget and the Regions

Author:
Alexei Makushkin
Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
In the period of the Soviet rule public finances formed the basis of the national economy and, consequently, were the key factor determining the relationship between the Central power and the regions. Beginning with the proclamation of the sovereignty of the Russian Federation in 1 99 1 the role of the Center and the regions changed. The State has reduced its influence on the national economy, largely due to the reduction of the share of the GDP reallocated through the Central budgetary system. In 1 999 the volume of the budgetary reallocated product made only 14- 1 5% of the total. The relationship between the federal budget and the system of the regional finances became very complicated and oblique. The state economic sector has decreased, power has become decentralized in Russia.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

28. Border and Ethnic Disputes in Russia's Western Borderlands: Crises Averted and Postponed

Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The current crisis in and around Yugoslavia demonstrates the importance of ethnicity as a source of tension and armed conflict in post-Cold War Europe. Unsettled ethnic and border issues have been important characteristics of the European security environment after the collapse of the Soviet Union and have been the cause of much tension on the European continent.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia

29. Chemical Weapons Destruction in Russia: Opportunities for Regional Development, Civil Society and Business

Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Lack of funding represents the most important factor behind the slow pace of destruction of the 45,000 tons of stockpiled chemical weapons in Russia, already reportedly 2-5 years behind schedule. Further delays of the process will not only endanger the environmental and health situation around the seven storage sites in Russia but may also severely undermine the Chemical Weapons Convention as a whole and thus have serious global implications.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

30. EARLY RESPONSES TO EARLY CONFLICT WARNINGS IN THE CAUCASUS

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Over the past decade the South Caucasus region has faced bloody internal conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and to a lesser extent South Ossetia. It continues to display potential for instability as Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia exhibit the combined characteristics of war-torn societies and countries in transition. Given the geostrategic importance of the Caucasus and the strong interests of regional and international powers—particularly in the potential energy output—renewed armed confrontations would have serious economic, political and security implications across national borders. Moreover, spill-over into other volatile zones could bring about the open intervention of powerful neighbors, such as Iran, Iraq, Russia and Turkey, and could threaten larger peace and security arrangements.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Russia, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Asia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Abkhazia