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1. New Findings on Links between Urban Expansion and Viral Disease in Vietnam Offer Lessons for COVID-19

Author:
James H. Spencer, Sumeet Saksena, and Jefferson Fox
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The current COVID-19 pandemic, which started in Wuhan, China, underscores what the public health community has warned about for more than two decades—the risk of viral diseases capable of spreading from animal to human hosts. The first outbreaks of “bird flu” (highly pathogenic avian influenza—HPAI, subtype H5N1)—raised similar concerns 20 years ago, concerns that have persisted with the outbreak of SARS in 2002–2004 and COVID-19 today. A recent study compared information on infrastructure and other aspects of economic development in Vietnam with outbreaks of avian influenza. While this research focuses on avian influenza in Vietnam, the study of links between infrastructure characteristics and new and reemerging health risks has broad applicability, especially given the global importance of today’s rapidly expanding urban landscapes.
Topic:
Infectious Diseases, Urban, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Vietnam

2. Economic Analysis of Duck Production Household Farm Level in the Context of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N1 in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Author:
Chinh C. Tran and John F. Yanagida
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Occurrence of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza subtype H5N1 usually results in the complete loss of the producer's entire flock due to high mortality rate and stamping out conducted to contain the virus. This study explores the expected economic impacts of HPAI H5N1 on smallholder duck producers in the Red River Delta of Vietnam. A conceptual model is developed to describe how a producer responds at each week of duck production to maximize profit and evaluate expected profits/losses of the producer in light of HPAI H5N1. The results suggests that in the case of no disease occurrence, the optimal time to sell ducks is at week 10 of the production cycle when ducks reach the age of 8 weeks. Maximum profit gained is US$805 for a producer with an average flock size of 794 ducks. However, the producer would suffer serious losses once the disease occurs. The expected investment loss is far higher than the maximum profit received at each production cycle and is estimated to be 3 times higher.
Topic:
Economics, Health, Infectious Diseases, and Food
Political Geography:
Vietnam

3. Perceived Risk of Avian Influenza in Poultry Varies with Urbanization in Vietnam

Author:
Jefferson Fox, Melissa L. Finucane, Sumeet Saksena, Nghiem Tuyen, James H. Spencer, Nguyen Lam, Trinh Dinh Thau, Tran Duc Vien, and Nancy D. Lewis
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is an important public health concern because of its potential to cause widespread morbidity and mortality in humans and poultry and associated devastating economic losses. In this study we examined how perceptions of and response to the risk of HPAI in poultry vary across communes/wards in the north of Vietnam at different levels of urbanization (rural, transitional, urban). We conducted a quantitative household survey with 1073 respondents. Results suggested that the perceived risk of HPAI in poultry was highest in transitional and rural settings. Respondents in these settings were more likely than respondents in urban settings to agree that the process of change (in urbanization, agricultural practices, or natural habitat) increased the likelihood of an outbreak of HPAI in poultry. Compared with others, respondents in transitional areas reported that they do less planning and perceive vaccines to be more effective, while respondents in rural areas reported less perceived ability to separate infected poultry from others. We also found that the inability to respond is not necessarily because of an inability to perceive change but because, rapid and extensive change poses different challenges for poultry management as communes move from rural to transitional to urban settings. Our results suggest that public and animal health campaigns could be tailored in a way that recognizes the needs of poultry raisers in different settings.
Topic:
Health, Infectious Diseases, and Urbanization
Political Geography:
Asia and Vietnam

4. Role of Urbanization, Land-Use Diversity, and Livestock Intensification in Zoonotic Emerging Infectious Diseases

Author:
Jefferson Fox, Duong Nong, Miguel Castrence, James Spencer, Sumeet Saksena, Nguyen Lam, Tran Duc Vien, Michael Epprecht, Chinh Tran, Melissa Finucane, and Bruce Wilco
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) continue to significantly threaten human and animal health. While there has been some progress in identifying underlying proximal driving forces and causal mechanisms of disease emergence, the role of distal factors is most poorly understood. This article focuses on analyzing the statistical association between highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and urbanization, land-use diversity and poultry intensification. A special form of the urban transition—peri-urbanization—was hypothesized as being associated with 'hot-spots' of disease emergence. Novel metrics were used to characterize these distal risk factors. Our models, which combined these newly proposed risk factors with previously known natural and human risk factors, had a far higher predictive performance compared to published models for the first two epidemiological waves in Viet Nam. We found that when relevant risk factors are taken into account, urbanization is generally not a significant independent risk factor. However, urbanization spatially combines other risk factors leading to peri-urban places being the most likely 'hot-spots'. The work highlights that peri-urban areas have highest levels of chicken density, duck and geese flock size diversity, fraction of land under rice, fraction of land under aquaculture compared to rural and urban areas. Land-use diversity, which has previously never been studied in the context of HPAI H5N1, was found to be a significant risk factor. Places where intensive and extensive forms of poultry production are collocated were found to be at greater risk
Topic:
Health, Infectious Diseases, and Urbanization
Political Geography:
United States and Asia