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672. Report of the Fact-Finding Mission to Lebanon inquiring into the causes, circumstances and consequences of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri
- Author:
- Peter FitzGerald
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- On 14 February 2005, an explosion in downtown Beirut killed twenty persons, among them the former Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri. The United Nations' Secretary-General dispatched a Fact-Finding Mission to Beirut to inquire into the causes, the circumstances and the consequences of this assassination. Since it arrived in Beirut on 25 February, the Mission met with a large number of Lebanese officials and representatives of different political groups, performed a thorough review of the Lebanese investigation and legal proceedings, examined the crime scene and the evidence collected by the local police, collected and analyzed samples from the crime scene, and interviewed some witnesses in relation to the crime. The specific 'causes' for the assassination of Mr. Hariri cannot be reliably asserted until after the perpetrators of this crime are brought to justice. However, it is clear that the assassination took place in a political and security context marked by an acute polarization around the Syrian influence in Lebanon and a failure of the Lebanese State to provide adequate protection for its citizens. Regarding the circumstances, the Mission is of the view that the explosion was caused by a TNT charge of about 1000 KG placed most likely above the ground. The review of the investigation indicates that there was a distinct lack of commitment on the part of the Lebanese authorities to investigate the crime effectively, and that this investigation was not carried out in accordance with acceptable international standards. The Mission is also of the view that the Lebanese investigation lacks the confidence of the population necessary for its results to be accepted. The consequences of the assassination could be far-reaching. It seems to have unlocked the gates of political upheavals that were simmering throughout the last year. Accusations and counter-accusations are rife and aggravate the ongoing political polarization. Some accuse the Syrian security services and leadership of assassinating Mr. Hariri because he became an insurmountable obstacle to their influence in Lebanon. Syrian supporters maintain that he was assassinated by "the enemies of Syria"; those who wanted to create international pressure on the Syrian leadership in order to accelerate the demise of its influence in Lebanon and/or start a chain of reactions that would eventually force a 'regime change' inside Syria itself. Lebanese politicians from different backgrounds expressed to the Mission their fear that Lebanon could be caught in a possible showdown between Syria and the international community, with devastating consequences for Lebanese peace and security. After gathering the available facts, the Mission concluded that the Lebanese security services and the Syrian Military Intelligence bear the primary responsibility for the lack of security, protection, law and order in Lebanon. The Lebanese security services have demonstrated serious and systematic negligence in carrying out the duties usually performed by a professional national security apparatus. In doing so, they have severely failed to provide the citizens of Lebanon with an acceptable level of security and, therefore, have contributed to the propagation of a culture of intimidation and impunity. The Syrian Military Intelligence shares this responsibility to the extent of its involvement in running the security services in Lebanon. It is also the Mission's conclusion that the Government of Syria bears primary responsibility for the political tension that preceded the assassination of former Prime Minister Mr. Hariri. The Government of Syria clearly exerted influence that goes beyond the reasonable exercise of cooperative or neighborly relations. It interfered with the details of governance in Lebanon in a heavy-handed and inflexible manner that was the primary reason for the political polarization that ensued. Without prejudice to the results of the investigation, it is obvious that this atmosphere provided the backdrop for the assassination of Mr. Hariri. It became clear to the Mission that the Lebanese investigation process suffers from serious flaws and has neither the capacity nor the commitment to reach a satisfactory and credible conclusion. To find the truth, it would be necessary to entrust the investigation to an international independent commission, comprising the different fields of expertise that are usually involved in carrying out similarly large investigations in national systems, with the necessary executive authority to carry out interrogations, searches, and other relevant tasks. Furthermore, it is more than doubtful that such an international commission could carry out its tasks satisfactorily - and receives the necessary active cooperation from local authorities - while the current leadership of the Lebanese security services remains in office. It is the Mission's conclusion that the restoration of the integrity and credibility of the Lebanese security apparatus is of vital importance to the security and stability of the country. A sustained effort to restructure, reform and retrain the Lebanese security services will be necessary to achieve this end, and will certainly require assistance and active engagement on the part of the international community. Finally, it is the Mission's view that international and regional political support will be necessary to safeguard Lebanon's national unity and to shield its fragile polity from unwarranted pressure. Improving the prospects of peace and security in the region would offer a more solid ground for restoring normalcy in Lebanon.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
673. Creating a North American Community - Chairmen's Statement
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- When the leaders of Canada, Mexico, and the United States meet in Texas on March 23, they will be representing countries whose futures are shared as never before.U.S. trade with Mexico and Canada accounts for almost one-third of total U.S. trade. U.S. trade with its North American neighbors substantially exceeds its trade with the European Union, and with Japan and China combined. In the energy sector, Canada and Mexico are now the two largest exporters of oil to the United States. Canada alone supplies the United States with over 95 percent of its imported natural gas and 100 percent of its imported electricity. In 2005, the borders between Canada, Mexico, and the United States will be crossed almost 400 million times.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Canada, North America, and Mexico
674. In the Wake of War: Improving U.S. Post-Conflict Capabilities
- Author:
- William L. Nash, Brent Scowcroft, and Samuel R. Berger
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- From Mogadishu to Mosul, the United States has undertaken six major nation-building operations around the world since 1993. The challenges of terrorism, failed states, and proliferation indicate this trend will only continue. Today, in Iraq, the United States carries the bulk of the nation-building burden. Some 135,000 U.S. troops remain on the ground, at an approximate cost of $50 billion per year. Nearly four years after forcing out the Taliban in Afghanistan, 9,000 NATO forces and 17,000 U.S. troops remain in that country to secure the peace and continue the hunt for al-Qaeda.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Taliban
675. HIV and National Security: Where Are the Links?
- Author:
- Laurie A. Garrett
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- It is important to clarify the security dimensions of the HIV/AIDS pandemic because actions taken to confront the disease as matters of domestic policy or foreign aid may differ markedly from those taken to address threats to national security. Understanding the impact HIV is now having, much less forecasting its toll and effects twenty years hence, is difficult. Little scrupulous analysis of the political, military, economic, and general security effects of the pandemic has been performed, both because the area is poorly funded and the problem is extremely complex.
- Topic:
- Health and United Nations
676. Giving Meaning to "Never Again": Seeking an Effective Response to the Crisis in Darfur and Beyond
- Author:
- Cheryl Igiri and Princeton M. Lyman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- April 2004 marked ten years since genocide ravaged Rwanda. The anniversary recalls the horrific way in which some 800,000 Rwandans lost their lives and serves as an unforgettable reminder of the international community's failure to prevent that genocide. This failure pervades the current consciousness as the tenor rises over how to react to credible reports of ethnic cleansing in Sudan.
- Topic:
- Security, Genocide, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- Sudan, North Africa, and Rwanda
677. Iran: Time for a New Approach
- Author:
- Robert M. Gates, Zbigniew Brzezinski, and Susan Maloney
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Twenty-five years after its Islamic revolution, Iran represents a challenge and an opportunity for the United States. The issues at stake reflect the urgent and multifaceted dilemmas of U.S. security in the post–9/11 era: nuclear proliferation, state support of terrorism, the relationship between religion and politics, and the imperative of political and economic reform in the Middle East. At this time, as Iraq—Iran's neighbor and historic adversary—embarks on a difficult transition to post-conflict sovereignty, and as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) extends its scrutiny of Iranian nuclear activities, Iran looms large on the U.S. policy agenda. Recognizing this relevance to vital U.S. interests, the Task Force advocates selectively engaging with Iran to address critical U.S. concerns.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
678. Update on the Global Campaign Against Terrorist Financing
- Author:
- Marice R. Greenberg, Mallory Factor, William F. Wechsler, and Lee S. Wolosky
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- In October 2002, this Task Force issued its initial report on terrorist financing. That report described the nature of the al-Qaeda financial network, the actions that had been taken to date to combat terrorist financing, and the obstacles that hindered those efforts.
- Topic:
- Terrorism and War
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
679. Freedom, Prosperity, and Security
- Author:
- J. Brian Atwood, Robert S. Browne, and Princeton N. Lyman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The United States will host the G8 Summit at Sea Island, Georgia, in June 2004. Many urgent and critical international issues need to be discussed at the summit, especially developments in the Middle East and in the worldwide war on terrorism. It will be important, however, that the summit also maintain the momentum of the past three years in the G8-Africa partnership. This will reinforce the work of African leaders who are championing democracy, human rights, and good governance. Africa, moreover, figures prominently in the three global issues the United States has selected for the summit: freedom, security, and prosperity.
- Topic:
- Security and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, Middle East, Georgia, and Island
680. Challenges for a Post-Election Philippines
- Author:
- Catherine E. Dalpino
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The outcome of national elections in the Philippines on May 10 is still to be determined. For the past three years, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has governed as an appointed head of state in the wake of President Joseph Estrada's forced resignation on corruption charges. Her administration inherited a country in crisis, and it began the critical process of economic stabilization and growth. Economic indicators in the past two years have shown modest progress. In this interim period, the Philippines has been a steadfast ally of the United States in the war against terrorism. These fragile gains could be imperiled if the Philippines does not complete the electoral process in an expeditious and credible manner. Whatever the outcome of the polls, the winner will have little time to lose in addressing a number of short- and long-term problems in the Philippines.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, Philippines, and Southeast Asia