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351. Piracy in Somalia: Threatening Global Trade, Feeding Local Wars

Author:
Roger Middleton
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Piracy off the coast of Somalia has more than doubled in 2008; so far over 60 ships have been attacked. Pirates are regularly demanding and receiving million-dollar ransom payments and are becoming more aggressive and assertive. The international community must be aware of the danger that Somali pirates could become agents of international terrorist networks. Already money from ransoms is helping to pay for the war in Somalia, including funds to the US terror-listed Al-Shabaab. The high level of piracy is making aid deliveries to drought-stricken Somalia ever more difficult and costly. The World Food Programme has already been forced to temporarily suspend food deliveries. Canada is now escorting WFP deliveries but there are no plans in place to replace their escort when it finishes later this year. The danger and cost of piracy (insurance premiums for the Gulf of Aden have increased tenfold) mean that shipping could be forced to avoid the Gulf of Aden/Suez Canal and divert around the Cape of Good Hope. This would add considerably to the costs of manufactured goods and oil from Asia and the Middle East. At a time of high inflationary pressures, this should be of grave concern. Piracy could cause a major environmental disaster in the Gulf of Aden if a tanker is sunk or run aground or set on fire. The use of ever more powerful weaponry makes this increasingly likely. There are a number of options for the international community but ignoring the problem is not one of them. It must ensure that WFP deliveries are protected and that gaps in supply do not occur.
Topic:
Security, Crime, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

352. Synchronized Dive into Recession: Focus on Damage Limitation

Author:
Vanessa Rossi
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The global financial system has suffered a once-in-a-century meltdown that almost brought the world economy to a halt in late September. Confidence and trust have been shattered. In spite of concerted and extraordinary efforts on the part of central banks and political leaders, including recapitalizing the banks, it is not yet certain that the waves of panic and destruction have been halted. Many of the repercussions have yet to emerge, including possible legal action as well as economic damage. Even before this latest explosion, the leading OECD economies were plunging into an unusually synchronized recession, driven by the simultaneous collapse in consumer and business spending. This will now get worse.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, and Markets

353. Yemen: Fear of Failure

Author:
Ginny Hill
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Yemen presents a potent combination of problems for policy-makers confronting the prospect of state failure in this strategically important Red Sea country. It is the poorest state in the Arab world, with high levels of unemployment, rapid population growth and dwindling water resources. President Saleh faces an intermittent civil war in the north, a southern separatist movement and resurgent terrorist groups. Yemen's jihadi networks appear to be growing as operating conditions in Iraq and Saudi Arabia become more difficult. The underlying drivers for future instability are economic. The state budget is heavily dependent on revenue from dwindling oil supplies. Yemen's window of opportunity to shape its own future and create a post-oil economy is narrowing.
Topic:
International Relations, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

354. Pakistan and the Rule of Law: Judged and Found Wanting

Author:
Irene Khan
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
When former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's son Bilawal became the leader of her Pakistan People's Party, following her assassination, he told the crowds that 'My mother always said democracy is the best revenge'. Yet, despite the fact parliamentary elections are now scheduled for February 18, Amnesty International sensed a general mood of hopelessness during a recent visit to the country. 'Pakistan is lost' was a refrain heard in many places.
Political Geography:
Pakistan

355. Pakistan: Real and Imaginary Risks

Author:
Anatol Lieven
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Risk analysts are getting it wrong in Pakistan. Fears of an Islamic state, or loose nukes – the capture of the nation's arsenal by extremists – will only come about if the west makes policy mistakes. Instead, long-term issues like climate change and population growth are the real threats.
Political Geography:
Pakistan

356. Britain's Food Supply: Lunch as a Strategic Issue

Author:
Kate Bailey
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The days when the consumer could command ample supplies of ever-cheaper delicacies from around the world may be over for ever. Food prices are rising dramatically, and probably permanently, hitting the world's leading economies. In developing countries, there have been queues for wheat in Pakistan, a shortage of rice in Bangladesh and Afghanistan has appealed for international help with supplies. Mealtime is about to become an important international issue for everyone.
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Britain, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh

357. Choosing Strategic African Partners: How Heavy are the Anchors?

Author:
Alex Vines
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
A televised post-election crisis in Kenya demands a government response, but where are the west's partners in Africa and what are the strategic interests? And as several more states prepare to vote, which are the ones to watch?
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

358. National Security Strategy: Winning on Wicked Issues

Author:
Charlie Edwards
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Faced with the risks of organised crime, terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, the public likes to believe that government is doing all it can to protect them. The idea that there might be inertia, or turf wars between departments charged with keeping them safe, is deeply disturbing. Now, the British government is publishing its first national security strategy, a chance to assess the threats and how best to respond.

359. Diplomacy: Foreign Office Futures

Author:
William Wallace
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Foreign ministries are more used to reporting on revolutions than being caught up in them. But now longstanding diplomatic practice faces its biggest challenge for generations. In an increasingly electronic environment, foreign services are squeezed between ambitious presidents and prime ministers who seek the limelight and the way domestic issues have become increasingly international.

360. Russia - The Presidency: Opaque as Always

Author:
Malcolm Rifkind
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The new man has arrived in the Kremlin as unexpectedly as his predecessor, who made the selection this time. With the Russian political season only half over – the formal presidential election is next month – thoughts are already focused on the decisions ahead.
Political Geography:
Russia and Kremlin