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331. The European External Action Service: Roadmap for Success

Author:
Brian Crowe
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Even the largest EU member states are no longer in a position on their own to shape international events or the world we all live in. Acting together in the EU they have shaped the international trade agenda. They have been much less successful in foreign policy for a combination of reasons, largely lack of will and poor arrangements. The Lisbon Treaty sets out to remedy the second of these, perhaps helping also to remedy the first in a world in which that becomes increasingly vital for European interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Lisbon

332. Is the Euro Ready for 'Prime Time'?

Author:
Benjamin J Cohen and Paola Subacchi
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
When Europe's Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) became effective nearly a decade ago, the euro was seen as having the potential to be the second pillar of the international monetary system. It was expected to share leadership in monetary affairs with the United States. Ten years later, however, the story looks quite different. Although the euro has firmly established itself as an international currency, the degree of change has been considerably less than expected. Europe's joint money remains at a distinct disadvantage in relation to America's greenback, limiting the role it can play in global monetary governance. The euro is not yet ready for 'prime time' and can at best play only a subordinate role to the dollar in the global system. This can be described as a one-and-a-half currency system – certainly not a two-pillar world. The problem lies in the governance structure of EMU. Because the euro is a currency without a country, based on an inter-state agreement, participating members find it difficult to speak with a single voice. The solution lies in a reform of EMU's governing rules and institutions that would put greater emphasis on the euro's external dimension. On the one hand this calls for more proactive management of the currency's exchange rate by the European Central Bank (ECB), together with an explicit commitment by the Eurogroup –the euro zone's informal committee of finance ministers – to undertake effective coordination of national fiscal policies. On the other hand it means designating a single representative of EMU with real authority to speak on behalf of members in international councils. Unless the euro zone can learn how to project power more successfully than it has until now, dual leadership of monetary affairs at the global level will remain out of reach.
Topic:
Foreign Exchange
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

333. EU Trade Policy: Approaching a Crossroads

Author:
Roderick Abbott
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In an important shift, inspired partly by drift in the Doha Round negotiations, the EU announced in 2006 that it would seek new free trade area arrangements with fast-growing economies, particularly in Asia. The plan, which ended a moratorium on the launch of bilateral trade talks, in place since 1996, was billed explicitly as a contribution to the EU's own growth and jobs strategy as well as a market-opening exercise. However, the policy has so far been no more effective than multilateral negotiations in producing concrete results. Negotiations with South Korea and ASEAN have made only slow progress, while the state of talks with India remains unclear. The EU spent most of 2007 renegotiating long-standing agreements with African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries in an effort to satisfy WTO rules. Meanwhile, the EU's partnership agreements with China and Russia have expired, and appropriate successor arrangements are still being sought. In both cases, a number of important bilateral problems and strains will need to be dealt with. With its various trade negotiations treading water, the EU may need to review its options. One could be a more aggressive pursuit of market access, modelled on the US approach. Alternatively, the EU's traditional preference for multilateral engagement may reassert itself.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, and Caribbean

334. The Past as Prelude? Negotiating the Palestinian Refugee Issue

Author:
Rex Brynen
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The question of Palestinian refugees has long been one of the most difficult issues in dispute in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. With the onset of renewed peace talks following the Annapolis summit of November 2007, it is once again an issue that the Israeli and Palestinian negotiators must address. The two sides are in a worse position to resolve the issue than they were during the last rounds of permanent status negotiations in 2000–01. The political weakness of the Israeli and Palestinian governments is compounded by heightened mistrust between the two societies, as well as by a hardening of Israeli public attitudes against even the symbolic return of any refugees to Israeli territory. There is now a substantial accumulated body of work on the Palestinian refugee issue to guide and inform negotiators and policy-makers. This includes past official negotiations among the key parties, wider discussions among regional states and the international donor community, unofficial and Track II initiatives and a considerable body of technical analysis.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Law, and Migration
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

335. Israeli Perspectives on the Palestinian Refugee Issue

Author:
Orit Gal
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
At the beginning of the Oslo Process the greatest challenge was the question of Palestinian statehood; negotiation of the refugee issue was postponed until the later stages. Over a decade later, Palestinian statehood is generally accepted as a given, and the refugee issue has taken centre stage. The Israeli perspective, from a leadership standpoint, is seemingly characterized by a sense of being overwhelmed, owing to the complexity of elements making up the refugee issue, the multiplicity of actors involved, and a heightened sense of uncertainty as to the consequences of any negotiated settlement. More strategic work is needed at the political and policy-making level to determine the resolution level required for the agreement itself. Much of the detail involved will have to be developed outside the main negotiation framework. More research and strategy development work is needed concerning the Israeli public domain, to assess existing attitudes and possible avenues for widening the public discourse. To this end, the Israeli media should also be encouraged to present the different debates and elements of the issue. There is a need for an international task force of leading experts working alongside the negotiation process and translating both sides' strategic options into operational frameworks. Such support could ease the load on the actual negotiating parties, thereby facilitating the decision-making process.
Topic:
International Cooperation and Migration
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

336. Controlling Illegal Logging: Using Public Procurement Policy

Author:
Duncan Brack
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The use of public procurement policy by consumer states to create protected markets for legal and sustainable timber is helping to exclude the products of illegal logging, thereby encouraging the legal and sustainable production of timber. Many countries already possess some form of green procurement policy into which criteria for legal and sustainable timber can easily be fitted. In general no new legislation is needed, so this offers a relatively rapid route to tackling imports of illegal timber. Nine countries currently possess some form of timber procurement policy at central government level. Although they are all very recent in implementation, the evidence already suggests that they are having a positive effect on increasing market share for verified legal and sustainable timber. However, the adoption of different criteria and coverage of products risks making it more difficult for exporters to provide supplies of timber; some degree of technical harmonization would be desirable, and seems likely. The inclusion of requirements for legal and sustainable timber in building standards provides another route for promoting these products. At present, however, the points-based systems that these standards are based on usually encourage, rather than require, sustainable timber.
Topic:
Environment, Government, International Organization, and Treaties and Agreements

337. Thinking About the Future of Food: The Chatham House Food Supply Scenarios

Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Demand for food is increasing because the global population is rising and major developing economies are expanding. Global supply capacity, meanwhile, is struggling to keep up with changing requirements. Four global food supply scenarios have been developed by the Chatham House Food Supply Project to consider the challenges created and their impact on the EU/UK: 'Just a Blip': what if the present high price of food proves to be a brief spike with a return to cheap food at some point soon? 'Food Inflation': what if food prices remain high for a decade or more? 'Into a New Era': what if today's food system has reached its limits and must change? 'Food in Crisis': what if a major world food crisis develops? Across the world the responses to change will be conditioned by uncertainties surrounding the availability of sufficient energy, water, land and skills. EU/UK stakeholders need to start planning now to develop new food supply systems that are up to the task.
Topic:
Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Population
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

338. The International Climate Change Agenda: Opportunities for the G8

Author:
Antony Froggatt
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The countries of the G8 have a key role in establishing a global deal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, not only because they produce 40% of global emissions, but because they can help facilitate the diffusion of the technologies necessary to stabilize the climate. Energy efficiency holds the key to both energy and climate security. Currently available technologies and practices will enable short-term and long-term targets to be met. There is a need for international cooperation that leads to increased efficiency standards for products and structures, focused finances and greater human resources and knowledge. Sector initiatives that help drive emissions reductions in heavy energy-consuming sectors will play an important role. Reductions in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions can be significantly increased through greater technological innovation and diffusion. This can be enhanced through greater research cooperation, increased targeted finance and deployment agreements.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology

339. An EU-Korea Free Trade Area: Playing Catch-Up or Taking the Lead?

Author:
Jim Rollo
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Both Korea and the EU are pursuing free trade areas (FTAs) aggressively as part of their trade policy strategies. Korea is much further down the road. There are strong incentives on both sides to conclude an agreement. However, specific issues and EU's desire to do at least as well as, and preferably better than, the Korea–US FTA may delay or even preclude success. Korea and the EU are not principal suppliers to each other, so while an agreement is predicted to be economically favourable to both sides, the effects are not expected to be very large. Korea has the higher barriers and is expected to make the bigger economic gains. There are sensitive sectors on both sides, notably automobiles for the EU and services and processed foods for Korea. Both sides have important agricultural constituencies to protect. Korea's key role in the East Asian production system suggests that rules of origin could be an area of particular difficulty in the negotiation.
Topic:
Agriculture and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, East Asia, Asia, and South Korea

340. Prospects for an EU-Gulf Cooperation Council Free Trade Area: The World's First Region-to-Region FTA?

Author:
Jim Rollo
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The EU and the GCC have seemed close to an agreement on a region-to-region Free Trade Agreement (FTA) – possibly the first in the world between customs unions – for the last two years. The EU seems keener on an agreement than the GCC. An FTA is an element in the EU's Global Europe trade policy strategy and is explicitly linked to energy security concerns. The EU is the GCC's main supplier of goods and services, and since the completion of the GCC Customs Union tariffs are low and the economic effects of an FTA are likely to be small, on goods at least. There may be economic barriers to the final signing of an FTA on both sides: resistance by GCC states to services and investment liberalization; and resistance in the EU over access for GCC refinery products and chemicals. Commentary from the Gulf itself suggests that the EU practice of including clauses on human rights and labour market and environmental regulation may be at the heart of the slow progress from the GCC side.
Topic:
Environment, Human Rights, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Arabia