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321. Trade and the Global Economic Crisis: Immediate Challenges and Long-term Threats

Author:
Jim Rollo and Peter Holmes
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The collapse of world trade is threatening to create a negative feedback loop to the global economy. Some countries have seen their trade fall by 30–50% in the year to February 2009, a bigger fall than between 1929 and 1930. Annual figures for world trade in 2008 show a big fall in the fourth quarter – a trend that has been accelerating. The world's trade ministers have failed to get the Doha Development Agenda back on track, despite direct instructions from the G20 leaders to do so quickly after the November summit in Washington, DC. This failure sends a very powerful negative signal about the G20's lack of policy coordination on even bigger issues. There is a two-way interaction between trade and the macro-economy at a national and global level. The current crisis is threatening countries that rely on export-led growth, a strategy that has led billions out of poverty. It is imperative for there to be recognition that the current shrinkage in global trade is a macro-economic problem requiring macro-economic solutions, and that the necessary actions must be coordinated.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Political Economy

322. North Africa: The Hidden Risks to Regional Stability

Author:
Claire Spencer
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
North Africa may not be as stable as it looks: socio-economic and political pressures are fracturing the consensus between governments and governed and may overtake terrorism and criminality as the region's main destabilizing forces. With political leadership in the region effectively a lifelong position, the growth of authoritarianism is undermining the prospects for achieving political and economic liberalization. Despite the worsening global economic climate, a window of opportunity exists to accelerate socially sensitive and productive domestic investment and open space for greater autonomous political and economic development. Success depends on renegotiating the social contracts on which North Africa's states are based. A broadening of participation, above all through the extension of legal employment, targeted investment on education, health and skills, and the establishment of independent legal and regulatory frameworks, will go some way towards addressing socio-economic stresses. A change in the political environment, however, requires a re-evaluation of how the region's security climate is seen from outside, with adjustments in the kind of support given to regional governments by its key international partners, the European Union and the United States.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Islam, and International Security
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Arabia

323. Against the Gathering Storm: Securing Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement

Author:
Edward Thomas
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed in 2005, ending two decades of war between Sudan's central government and the Southern-based Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army. The CPA shares wealth and power between Sudan's powerful Centre, a newly autonomous South, and Sudan's other vast, diverse, impoverished peripheries. The bold peace gave new legitimacy to the two parties, who agreed to face their first competitive elections in 2009. Southern Sudan will have a referendum on self-determination in 2011.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

324. The Feeding of the Nine Billion: Global Food Security for the 21st Century

Author:
Alex Evans
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Global food prices have eased significantly from their record highs in the first part of 2008. As a worldwide economic downturn has gathered pace, commodity markets have weakened significantly. By October 2008, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index stood at 164, the same level as in August 2007, and 25% lower than the Index's high of 219 in June 2008.
Topic:
Agriculture and Food

325. Food Futures: Rethinking UK Strategy

Author:
Kate Bailey, Susan Ambler-Edwards, and Alexandra Kiff
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Over the next few decades, the global food system will come under renewed pressure from the combined effects of seven fundamental factors: population growth, the nutrition transition, energy, land, water, labour and climate change. The combined effects will create constraints on food supply and if action is not taken, there is a real potential for demand growth to outstrip increases in global food production. Effects on developing countries would be devastating. Developed countries will be affected too. Expectations of abundant and ever cheaper food could come under strain. The UK can no longer afford to take its food supply for granted.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Demographics, Globalization, and International Security
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

326. Ready to Lead? Rethinking America's Role in a Changed World

Author:
Robin Niblett
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
During his inaugural address on 20 January 2009, Barack Obama declared to 'all other peoples and governments, who are watching today, know that we are ready to lead once more'. In the following four weeks to the publication of this report, President Obama has set the United States on a course that is meeting widespread approval around the world. He has ordered the closure as soon as possible of the Guantánamo Bay detention facilities and of other secret facilities outside the United States that had so undermined America's international credibility with its allies and confirmed the anti-US narrative of its opponents. He has appointed special envoys for Middle East Peace and to implement an integrated strategy for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. He has offered to 'seek a new way forward' with the Muslim world as well as to 'extend a hand' to authoritarian governments if they are willing 'to unclench [their] fist'. His Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, has said that America will be more effective if it can 'build a world with more partners and fewer adversaries'. Both have recognized the virtues of pragmatism over ideology and the reality of interdependence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States, America, Middle East, Asia, and Latin America

327. A Fair Deal on Seabed Wealth: The Promise and Pitfalls of Article 82 on the Outer Continental Shelf

Author:
Cleo Paskal and Michael Lodge
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Approximately 70 of the 156 States that have ratified the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea have potential Outer Continental Shelf Claims (OCS). Those claims could cover more than 15 million square kilometres of seabed. Under Article 82 of the Convention, a portion of the revenue from the extraction of non-living resources on the OCS must be disbursed 'on the basis of equitable sharing criteria, taking into account the interests and needs of developing States, particularly the least developed and the land-locked among them.' Article 82 is a unique and complex provision that does not address many of the specifics of how this is to be accomplished. The Energy, Environment and Development Programme at Chatham House is working with the body charged with applying Article 82, the International Seabed Authority, to explore in greater detail some of the critical issues of implementation while the Article is still dormant.
Topic:
International Relations, Energy Policy, Environment, International Law, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations

328. The Palestinian Refugee Issue: A Palestinian Perspective

Author:
Abbas Shiblak
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The quest of Palestinian refugees to return to their homes is not only a legal and moral right but has become a major part of Palestinian identity and symbolizes Palestinian historical narratives. It has been an effective instrument of mobilization that became the political priority of various resistance groups which later formed the Palestine Liberation Organization. The PLO embarked on a line of negotiation which sought to reconcile rightist and realist approaches. They sought acknowledgment by Israel of its responsibility for the refugee issue and acceptance in principle of their right of return while showing flexibility and readiness to discuss various formulations of return. At the core of the inter-Palestinian debate is the dynamic between the two objectives of achieving statehood and the resolution of the refugee issue. State-building came to be seen not only as a means of reconstructing Palestinian identity but also as a catalyst to resolution of the refugee issue. A peace agreement should widen the options for the refugees and address all aspects of the refugee issue including the rights of repatriation to Israel, return to a Palestinian state, compensation, and equality and full citizenship rights in countries where refugees choose to remain. A comprehensive peace agreement must include the regional aspects of the refugee issue and all regional actors. There is an urgent need to review the current format of negotiations and bring about more balanced and effective international political engagement in the bilateral Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Political Economy, Post Colonialism, Poverty, Terrorism, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

329. The Gulf as a Global Financial Centre: Growing Opportunities and International Influence

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Ambition is high. Just a few years ago, the claim that the Gulf represented an important financial centre, let alone an aspiring Global Financial Centre (GFC), would have been seen as optimistic. However, it should be recalled that in the late 1990s, and even up until 2003, few analysts expected oil prices to move above the $20–30 range–yet by early 2008 oil was trading well above $100 and rising. The GCC economies have approximately tripled in size in just five years and their combined GDP will be well above $1 trillion in 2008, while their external financial wealth in the form of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and foreign exchange reserves alone is more than double this figure. These trends are not, of course, uncorrelated. Nevertheless, it is easy to see the region's comparative advantage from the swing in oil prices, whereas the scope for developing a significant advantage in global finance remains tentative. To develop and mature the Global Financial Centre concept will require considerable effort and nurturing, chiefly by GCC governments, banks and fund managers but including cooperative ventures with leading GFCs and financial services companies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Arab Countries

330. Lost Opportunities in the Horn of Africa: How Conflicts Connect and Peace Agreements Unravel

Author:
Sally Healy
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This report is a study of three peace processes in the Horn of Africa, a region of Africa distinguished by the prevalence and persistence of armed conflict. It deals with the Algiers Agreement of December 2000 between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the Somalia National Peace and Reconciliation Process concluded in October 2004 and the Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement of January 2005. It examines in turn the background and historical context of the conflicts that these peace agreements were intended to resolve. It charts the developments since the agreements were signed, seeking to assess how far they have achieved successful outcomes for peace and stability. The results are very mixed.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Disaster Relief, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa