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241. Serbo-Croat Relations: Addressing Injustice

Author:
Jelena Obradovic-Wochnik
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
On August 4, 1995, Croatian troops launched Operation Storm, a military action to gain control of the land occupied by Serb forces. The operation displaced some 200,000 Serbs from Croatia's Krajina region, but concluded the Croatian war, which started in 1991. Serbian public opinion has long maintained that this event constitutes genocide, and Storm became symbolic in Serbian politics, being held up as an emblem of perceived injustices against Serbs.
Political Geography:
Serbia

242. Bosnia: Crisis Averted?

Author:
Kenneth Morrison
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
While the ghosts of the 1992-95 Bosnian war have been invoked by political elites in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries as a justification for the need to provide humanitarian intervention in Libya, the political situation in Bosnia barely merited mention. Indeed, while the focus has been fixed on the events in the Middle East and North Africa, Bosnia's problems have incrementally but steadily worsened.
Political Geography:
North Atlantic, Bosnia, Middle East, Libya, and North Africa

243. The new politics of protection? Côte d'Ivoire, Libya and the responsibility to protect

Author:
Alex J Bellamy and Paul D Williams
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The international responses to recent crises in Côte d'Ivoire and Libya reveal a great deal about the UN Security Council's approach to human protection. The Council has long authorized peacekeepers to use 'all necessary means' to protect civilians, in contexts including Haiti, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Sudan, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Burundi and Côte d'Ivoire. But Resolution 1973 (17 March 2011) on the situation in Libya marked the first time the Council had authorized the use of force for human protection purposes against the wishes of a functioning state. The closest it had come to crossing this line previously was in Resolutions 794 (1992) and 929 (1994). In Resolution 794, the Council authorized the Unified Task Force to enter Somalia to ease the humanitarian crisis there, but this was in the absence of a central government rather than against one—a point made at the time by several Council members. In Resolution 929 (1994), the Security Council authorized the French-led Operation Turquoise to protect victims and targets of the genocide then under way in Rwanda; this mission enjoyed the consent of the interim government in Rwanda as well as its armed forces. In passing Resolution 1973, the Council showed that it will not be inhibited as a matter of principle from authorizing enforcement for protection purposes by the absence of host state consent. Although its response in Libya broke new ground, it grew out of attitudes and processes evident well before this particular crisis. Most notably, the Council had already accepted—in Resolutions 1674 (2006) and 1894 (2009)—that it had a responsibility to protect civilians from grave crimes, and this was evident in a shift in the terms of its debates from questions about whether to act to protect civilians to questions about how to engage.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Paris, Libya, United Nations, Balkans, Netherlands, Rwanda, Alabama, Ninewa, and Lower Dir

244. George W. Bush, Barack Obama and the future of US global leadership

Author:
James M Lindsay
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The foreign policy world views of George W. Bush and Barack Obama differ dramatically. Bush made terrorism the focal point of his foreign policy and dismissed the idea that either allies or international institutions should constrain America's freedom of action. Obama sees terrorism as one of many transnational problems that require the cooperation of other countries to combat and, as a result, the United States must invest more in diplomatic efforts to build partnerships. Despite these differences, both presidents share one common conviction: that other countries long for US leadership. Bush believed that friends and allies would eventually rally to the side of the United States, even if they bristled at its actions, because they shared America's goals and had faith in its motives. Obama believed that a United States that listened more to others, stressed common interests and favored multinational action would command followers. In practice, however, both visions of American global leadership faltered. Bush discovered that many countries rejected his style of leadership as well as his strategies. Obama discovered that in a globalized world, where power has been more widely dispersed, many countries are not looking to Washington for direction. The future success of US foreign policy depends on the ability of policy-makers to recognize and adapt to a changing geopolitical environment in which the US remains the most significant military, diplomatic and economic power but finds it, nonetheless, increasingly difficult to drive the global agenda.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Washington

245. Ten years on: Obama's war on terrorism in rhetoric and practice

Author:
Trevor Mccrisken
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
It has been almost ten years since the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon led President George W. Bush to proclaim a 'war on terror'. This article focuses on the difficulties faced by his successor, Barack Obama, as he has attempted to move away from much of the Bush rhetoric and practice of counterterrorism. Obama came to office determined to 'reboot' US counter-terrorism policy so that it would not only be more effective but also more in keeping with what he perceived as the core moral values and principles at the heart of American political culture. For many observers, Obama has not lived up to expectations as he has not made wholesale changes to counter-terrorism policy. This article argues, however, that he always intended to not only maintain but, in fact, deepen Bush's war against terrorism, not because he was trapped by Bush's institutionalized construction of a global war on terror, but because he agrees fundamentally with the core assumptions and imperatives of that war on terror narrative. Nonetheless, Obama promised to continue combating terrorism in ways that were distinctive from his predecessor, not least because a higher moral standard would be applied to the conduct of counter-terrorism. By addressing his policies toward Afghanistan and Pakistan, Guantanamo Bay and torture, and the use of unmanned drone attacks, it is argued that Obama's 'war' against terrorism is not only in keeping with the assumptions and priorities of the last ten years but also that, despite some successes, it is just as problematic as that of his predecessor.
Topic:
Terrorism and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and America

246. The art of declining politely: Obama's prudent presidency and the waning of American power

Author:
Adam Quinn
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Predictions of 'American decline' have come and gone before, apparently in cycles, leading some to regard it as a cultural trope stemming from domestic insecurities rather than a serious prospect. There is reason to believe, however, that this time is different. Fundamental erosion of the United States' decades-long primacy may finally be at hand, and wise analysis should resist the temptations of contrarianism or denial. Critics of 'declinism' have offered important caveats with which we should qualify any overly simplistic or deterministic portrait of America's trajectory from hegemon to lesser status. This article gives such qualifications due weight while nevertheless seeking to steer our gaze back towards the core truth at the heart of the declinist thesis. That is: unless something very significant changes to jolt the course of events onto a different track, the relative power of the United States—measured in terms of its advantage over others in economic and military capacity—will be shrinking significantly over the decades to come. Happily, the nation's current president seems to have a disposition well fitted to leading the nation into the opening stages of an era of relative decline. President Obama has made headlines in recent months for his boldness in orchestrating the killing of Osama bin Laden. A fuller survey of his foreign policy, however, reveals that its most signal feature has been prudence and circumspection regarding American power and its exercise. Major divergence between the ends pursued and the capacities available for their pursuit is one of the cardinal sins giving rise to strategic failure. It is thus fortunate for the United States that it should have a president who, even if he may not be inclined to cast it in such words himself, seems disposed not to 'rage against the dying of the light' of American primacy, but to practice the admirable art of declining politely.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States and America

247. The new politics of protection? Côte d'Ivoire, Libya and the responsibility to protect

Author:
Alex J Bellamy and Paul D Williams
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In March 2011, the UN Security Council authorized the use of force to protectcivilians in Libya. This was the first time that the Council has ever authorized theinvasion of a functioning state for such purposes. International society's relativelydecisive responses to recent crises in Côte d'Ivoire and Libya has provoked significantcommentary, suggesting that something has changed about the way the worldresponds to violence against civilians. Focusing on these two cases, this articleexamines the changing practice of the UN Security Council. It argues that we areseeing the emergence of a new politics of protection, but that this new politics hasbeen developing over the past decade. Four things are new about this politics ofprotection: protecting civilians from harm has become a focus for internationalengagement; the UN Security Council has proved itself willing to authorize theuse of force for protection purposes; regional organizations have begun to play therole of 'gatekeeper'; and major powers have exhibited a determination to workthrough the Security Council where possible. However, the cases of Côte d'Ivoireand Libya also help to highlight some key challenges that might halt or reverseprogress. Notably, states differ in the way they interpret mandates; questions arebeing asked about the UN's authority to act independently of specific SecurityCouncil authorizations; the overlap of regional organizations sometimes sendsconflicting messages to the Security Council; and there remains a range of difficultoperational questions about how to implement protection mandates. Withthese in mind, this article concludes with some suggestions about how the futurechallenges might be navigated in order to maintain the progress that has been madein the past decade.
Topic:
Security and United Nations
Political Geography:
Libya

248. Can Asia lead? Power ambitions and global governance in the twentyfirst century

Author:
Amitav Acharya
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Is the much hyped 'rise of Asia' translating into global public good? The leading Asian powers, China, India and Japan, demand a greater share of the decisionmaking and leadership of global institutions. Yet, they seem to have been more preoccupied with enhancing their national power and status than contributing to global governance, including the management of global challenges. This is partly explained by a realpolitik outlook and ideology, and the legacies of India's and China's historical identification with the 'Third World' bloc. Another key factor is the continuing regional legitimacy deficit of the Asian powers. This article suggests that the Asian powers should increase their participation in and contribution to regional cooperation as a stepping stone to a more meaningful contribution to global governance.
Topic:
Governance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, India, and Asia

249. Asia's century and the problem of Japan's centrality

Author:
Brendan Taylor
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Japan has long been regarded as a central component of America's grand strategyin Asia. Scholars and practitioners assume this situation will persist in the face of China's rise and, indeed, that a more 'normal' Japan can and should take on anincreasingly central role in US-led strategies to manage this power transition. Thisarticle challenges those assumptions by arguing that they are, paradoxically, beingmade at a time when Japan's economic and strategic weight in Asian security isgradually diminishing. The article documents Japan's economic and demographicchallenges and their strategic ramifications. It considers what role Japan mightplay in an evolving security order where China and the US emerge as Asia's twodominant powers by a significant margin. Whether the US-China relationshipis ultimately one of strategic competition or accommodation, it is argued thatJapan's continued centrality in America's Asian grand strategy threatens to becomeincreasingly problematic. It is posited that the best hope for circumventing thisproblem and its potentially destabilizing consequences lies in the nurturing of anascent 'shadow condominium' comprising the US and China, with Japan as a'marginal weight' on the US side of that arrangement.
Topic:
Security and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and America

250. How Japan matters in the evolving East Asian security order

Author:
Evelyn Goh
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
This article argues that Japan matters crucially in the evolving East Asian security order because it is embedded both in the structural transition and the ongoing regional strategies to manage it. The post-Cold War East Asian order transition centres on the disintegration of the post-Second World War Great Power bargain that saw Japan subjecting itself to extraordinary strategic constraint under the US alliance, leaving the conundrum of how to negotiate a new bargain that would keep the peace between Japan and China. To manage the uncertainties of this transition, East Asian states have adopted a three-pronged strategy of: maintaining US military preponderance; socializing China as a responsible regional great power; and cultivating regionalism as the basis for a long-term East Asian security community. Japan provides essential public goods for each of these three elements: it keeps the US anchored in East Asia with its security treaty; it is the one major regional power that can and has helped to constrain the potential excesses of growing Chinese power while at the same time crucially engaging with and helping to socialize China; and its economic and political participation is critical for meaningful regionalism and regional integration. It does not need to be a fully fledged, 'normal' Great Power in order to carry out these roles. As the region tries to mediate the growing security dilemma among the three great powers, Japan's importance to regional security will only grow.
Topic:
Security and Cold War
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and East Asia