Search

Begin New Search Publishing Institution Centre for International Governance Innovation

291. A Markov Switching Approach to Herding

Author:
Pierre Siklos, Martin T. Bohl, and Arne C. Klein
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Existing models of market herding suffer from several drawbacks. Measures that assume herd behaviour is constant over time or independent of the economy are not only economically unreasonable, but describe the data poorly. First, if returns are stationary, then a two-regime model is required to describe the data. Second, existing models of time-varying herding cannot be estimated from daily or weekly data, and are unable to accommodate factors that explain changes in this behaviour. To overcome these deficiencies, this paper proposes a Markov switching herding model. By means of time-varying transition probabilities, the model is able to link variations in herding behaviour to proxies for sentiment or the macroeconomic environment. The evidence for the US stock market reveals that during periods of high volatility, investors disproportionately rely on fundamentals rather than on market consensus.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Canada

292. The Arctic and Geopolitics

Author:
David A. Welch
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Contrary to popular belief — and contrary to the views of many politicians and scholars — the Arctic is completely uninteresting geopolitically from a traditional national security perspective. It is somewhat more interesting geopolitically from various non-traditional security perspectives (for example, human security, cultural security, energy security, economic security and environmental security); but it is truly important only in the one respect that attracts the least attention and action from policy makers: namely, ecospheric security.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

293. Priorities for the G20: The St. Petersburg Summit and Beyond

Author:
Gordon Smith, Domenico Lombardi, Barry Carin, Paul Jenkins, Pierre Siklos, Susan Schadler, and Thomas A. Bernes
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Tail risks for the global economy have receded vis-à-vis last year, but this has not translated into higher growth in many advanced economies. Emerging economies, which have made considerable contributions to global economic growth since the height of the international financial crisis, are slowing down. In its latest round of forecasts in July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its growth projections, especially those for the emerging economies, and the Washington-based institution may provide G20 leaders with a new set of downward-revised projections in St. Petersburg in September.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Washington

294. The Sovereign Debt Forum: Expanding Our Tool Kit for Handling Sovereign Crises

Author:
Richard Gitlin and Brett House
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
A sovereign debt forum (SDF) would assist in facilitating more predictable, transparent and timely treatments of sovereign crises during future episodes of debt-servicing difficulties. An SDF would provide a non-statutory, neutral standing body to identify lessons from past episodes of sovereign distress, maintain information on sovereign debt and convene stakeholders to engage in confidential discussions at the outset of a sovereign crisis. The SDF proposal takes inspiration from existing precedents, such as the Paris Club and Vienna Initiative, which demonstrate that informal, rules-based representative entities have a long-standing history of organizing effective workouts for distressed countries An SDF would have a limited remit: to enable early, discreet consultation and information sharing between distressed sovereigns and their creditors to speed the process by which a sovereign is returned to solvency, stability and growth. An SDF would not supersede existing institutions and would rely on close collaboration with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). An SDF would complement other proposals for automatic maturity extensions on securitized debt, arbitration and mediation processes, voluntary standstills and improved aggregation in collective action clauses (CACs). The SDF and other incremental, pragmatic proposals to improve sovereign crisis management should be put at the core of the G20 agenda on an ongoing basis.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, and Governance

295. Internet Points of Control as Global Governance

Author:
Laura DeNardis
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The distributed nature of Internet infrastructure and relatively malleable user engagement with content can misleadingly create the impression that the Internet is not governed. When Internet governance does rise to media or public prominence, this usually involves high-profile controversies such as the Egyptian government cutting off citizen Internet access or government-delegated censorship requests for Google to delete politically sensitive content. These are examples of Internet content governance via infrastructure. But beneath this layer of content, at much more technologically concealed layers, coordinated and sometimes centralized governance of the Internet's technical architecture is necessary to keep the network operational, secure and universally accessible. This governance is enacted not necessarily through traditional nation-state authority but via the design of technical architecture, the policies enacted by private industry and administration by new global institutions. While these coordinating functions perform highly specialized technical tasks, they also have significant economic and political implications.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Sovereignty, and Governance
Political Geography:
Egypt

296. Sources of Tension in the Asia-Pacific: Strategic Competition, Divided Regionalism and Non-traditional Security Challenges

Author:
James Manicom
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
There are a number of strategic challenges currently affecting the Asia-Pacific. In a period of global uncertainty, China has emerged as a confident and powerful actor, while the ability of the United States to remain the region's hegemonic power has come into question. Maritime boundary claims, regionalism and unresolved Cold War sovereignty disputes are a source of considerable uncertainty. A number of non-traditional security challenges are also emerging, including energy and food insecurity, cyber security and the threat of a climate catastrophe-related humanitarian crisis. Canada and Australia — resource-based economies with a record of bilateral and institutional engagement in the region, and important US allies — have an interest in these challenges, and in ensuring regional strategic stability that promotes economic growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Canada, Israel, Australia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific

297. The Responsibility to Protect: Ensuring the Norm's Relevance After Libya, Côte d'Ivoire and Syria

Author:
Maissaa Almustafa, Evan Cinq-Mars, and Matthew Redding
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Since its endorsement in 2005, the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) has become central to how the global community responds to genocide and mass atrocities. The norm presently faces the “risk of relevance” as a result of the interventions in Libya and Côte d'Ivoire and the deadlock over the situation in Syria. The recommendations in this brief will strengthen preventive capacities, maximize the protection afforded to civilians and ensure the norm's future relevance.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Genocide, Human Rights, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa and Arabia

298. Hedging Against an Unstable China: Measures to Enhance Regional and Global Resilience

Author:
Alexandre Catta, Aladdin Diakun, and Clara Yoon
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Mainstream analysis on China tends to be overly optimistic, leaving a blind spot in strategic planning. While the country's socio-economic landscape has been transformed over several decades of uninterrupted growth, it faces significant domestic and international risks and constraints. Chief among these are labour insecurity and imbalances, environmental constraints and rising climatic risks, and food insecurity, all coupled with rising popular expectations for a higher overall standard of living. Major soy producers (Argentina, Brazil and the United States) should take steps to ensure the stability of China's supply. In particular, these countries should set aside reserves to help mitigate future supply shocks and price spikes resulting from climate change. Manufacturers operating in or with China should immediately begin mapping their supply chains to identify vulnerabilities associated with crisis scenarios in the country. Where specific risks are identified, they should explore supply-chain diversification to boost resilience among major trading partners. To deter China from externalizing internal stresses, international actors should raise the political costs of nationalistic unilateralism by opening more channels for dialogue, deepening institutional integration and buttressing cooperative security norms.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Economics, Environment, and Food
Political Geography:
China and Israel

299. Transnational Challenges and Future Security Cooperation: The Australia-Canada Relationship

Author:
Sarah Norgrove
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The possibilities for future Asia-Pacific security cooperation between Australia and Canada are promising. Economic development and population growth mean that security challenges present themselves as opportunities. Australia and Canada are well positioned to influence regional approaches to transnational challenges such as crime, terrorism, piracy and environmental degradation, and to contribute to food, energy and cyber security. This paper explores the current state of security cooperation between Australia and Canada in the Asia-Pacific, and identifies opportunities to extend the relationship, focussing on collaborative efforts like economic and maritime cooperation, which may help tackle transnational security challenges.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Canada, Asia, and Australia

300. Closer Australia-Canada Defence Cooperation?

Author:
John Blaxland
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper examines the prospect and utility of closer defence cooperation for both Canada and Australia. It reflects on commonalities and like-mindedness, particularly as they concern regional security and stability in the Indo-Pacific. Forward-looking measures are presented for Canadian and Australian defence policy makers to capitalize on each other\'s strengths and similarities. Cooperation could enhance both countries\' ability to engage in the region, their mutual defence capabilities and their engagement with the great powers. With this in mind, closer bilateral engagement should be considered in three areas: bolstering regional engagement, cost-saving measures and enhancing engagement with great powers.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Canada, Asia, and Australia/Pacific