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71. The Sovereign Debt Forum: Expanding Our Tool Kit for Handling Sovereign Crises

Author:
Richard Gitlin and Brett House
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
A sovereign debt forum (SDF) would assist in facilitating more predictable, transparent and timely treatments of sovereign crises during future episodes of debt-servicing difficulties. An SDF would provide a non-statutory, neutral standing body to identify lessons from past episodes of sovereign distress, maintain information on sovereign debt and convene stakeholders to engage in confidential discussions at the outset of a sovereign crisis. The SDF proposal takes inspiration from existing precedents, such as the Paris Club and Vienna Initiative, which demonstrate that informal, rules-based representative entities have a long-standing history of organizing effective workouts for distressed countries An SDF would have a limited remit: to enable early, discreet consultation and information sharing between distressed sovereigns and their creditors to speed the process by which a sovereign is returned to solvency, stability and growth. An SDF would not supersede existing institutions and would rely on close collaboration with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). An SDF would complement other proposals for automatic maturity extensions on securitized debt, arbitration and mediation processes, voluntary standstills and improved aggregation in collective action clauses (CACs). The SDF and other incremental, pragmatic proposals to improve sovereign crisis management should be put at the core of the G20 agenda on an ongoing basis.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, and Governance

72. Sources of Tension in the Asia-Pacific: Strategic Competition, Divided Regionalism and Non-traditional Security Challenges

Author:
James Manicom
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
There are a number of strategic challenges currently affecting the Asia-Pacific. In a period of global uncertainty, China has emerged as a confident and powerful actor, while the ability of the United States to remain the region's hegemonic power has come into question. Maritime boundary claims, regionalism and unresolved Cold War sovereignty disputes are a source of considerable uncertainty. A number of non-traditional security challenges are also emerging, including energy and food insecurity, cyber security and the threat of a climate catastrophe-related humanitarian crisis. Canada and Australia — resource-based economies with a record of bilateral and institutional engagement in the region, and important US allies — have an interest in these challenges, and in ensuring regional strategic stability that promotes economic growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Canada, Israel, Australia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific

73. Hedging Against an Unstable China: Measures to Enhance Regional and Global Resilience

Author:
Alexandre Catta, Aladdin Diakun, and Clara Yoon
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Mainstream analysis on China tends to be overly optimistic, leaving a blind spot in strategic planning. While the country's socio-economic landscape has been transformed over several decades of uninterrupted growth, it faces significant domestic and international risks and constraints. Chief among these are labour insecurity and imbalances, environmental constraints and rising climatic risks, and food insecurity, all coupled with rising popular expectations for a higher overall standard of living. Major soy producers (Argentina, Brazil and the United States) should take steps to ensure the stability of China's supply. In particular, these countries should set aside reserves to help mitigate future supply shocks and price spikes resulting from climate change. Manufacturers operating in or with China should immediately begin mapping their supply chains to identify vulnerabilities associated with crisis scenarios in the country. Where specific risks are identified, they should explore supply-chain diversification to boost resilience among major trading partners. To deter China from externalizing internal stresses, international actors should raise the political costs of nationalistic unilateralism by opening more channels for dialogue, deepening institutional integration and buttressing cooperative security norms.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Economics, Environment, and Food
Political Geography:
China and Israel

74. Transnational Challenges and Future Security Cooperation: The Australia-Canada Relationship

Author:
Sarah Norgrove
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The possibilities for future Asia-Pacific security cooperation between Australia and Canada are promising. Economic development and population growth mean that security challenges present themselves as opportunities. Australia and Canada are well positioned to influence regional approaches to transnational challenges such as crime, terrorism, piracy and environmental degradation, and to contribute to food, energy and cyber security. This paper explores the current state of security cooperation between Australia and Canada in the Asia-Pacific, and identifies opportunities to extend the relationship, focussing on collaborative efforts like economic and maritime cooperation, which may help tackle transnational security challenges.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Canada, Asia, and Australia

75. Inserting Migrants Into the Global Social Protection Floor

Author:
Marie-Hélène Ratel, Gabriel Williams, and Keegan Williams
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Unprecedented human migration is an issue of critical importance in today's rapidly globalizing world. International migrants constitute a group with more people than the population of Brazil, and they send more money home each year than the entire value of Argentina's economy (International Organization for Migration [IOM], 2013). Migration flows have doubled since 1980 and show no signs of slowing down due to growing inequalities in global development, population pressure, environmental change and conflict (Koser, 2010). Compared to the majority of citizens in many countries, migrants face heightened risks because they do not receive adequate social protections such as health care, income security, education, housing or access to clean water and sanitation.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Social Stratification, Labor Issues, Immigration, and Sociology
Political Geography:
Brazil and Argentina

76. Unsustainable Debt and the Political Economy of Lending: Constraining the IMF's Role in Sovereign Debt Crises

Author:
Susan Schadler
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The timely resolution of severe debt crises has long been one of the most difficult challenges for global financial cooperation. Focussing on the case of Greece, this paper examines how the euro crisis precipitated large International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans that violated the framework developed on the basis of the preceding decade to prevent a costly delay in restructuring. The paper reveals that safeguards meant to prevent the IMF from providing support for crisis countries without a reasonably clear path to debt sustainability failed. In fact, changes made in the context of the euro crisis to the IMF's framework for lending in severe sovereign debt crises will weaken the IMF's effectiveness in future crises. The paper concludes with four suggestions for how to re-establish an adequate framework for IMF intervention in severe debt crises in the future.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Monetary Fund, and Financial Crisis

77. Bounding Cyber Power: Escalation and Restraint in Global Cyberspace

Author:
Ronald J. Deibert
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Cyberspace is the global communications and information ecosystem, and it is now deeply embedded in all aspects of society, economics and politics. As cyberspace has grown in size and significance, the security of the domain has become highly contested among states, the private sector and civil society. This paper is divided into two parts: The first half focusses on the forces that are contributing to escalating international tensions and conflicts in cyberspace, largely driven by state-based concerns around national security. From this perspective, the exercise of state power in cyberspace is growing (to borrow an old phrase) in “leaps and bounds.” The second half employs a different meaning of “bounding power” — which refers to tying down, checking or restraining the exercise of power — and outlines steps that might be taken to lead us down an alternative path, whereby security and openness are both protected and preserved.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Economics, Politics, Science and Technology, and Governance

78. ARBITERS AMISS: THE FAILINGS AND SHORTCOMINGS OF INSTITUTIONS GOVERNING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM

Author:
Paul Blustein
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Myriad dangers beset the global economy. The US Federal Reserve is trying to curb its ultra-easy money policy, a delicate operation that could plunge the world into recession if done too abruptly. The euro zone might fall back into turmoil. Japan's experiment with “Abenomics”1 could go sour. China's banking system looks shaky. Emerging economies are suffering large scale withdrawals of foreign funds.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Economics, International Monetary Fund, Foreign Aid, Fragile/Failed State, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China

79. A Map for Strengthening the G20 Mutual Assessment Process

Author:
Kevin English, Xenia Menzies, Jacob Muirhead, and Jennifer Prenger
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The 2007–2009 global financial crisis demonstrated that the world required a much stronger framework for cooperation on financial and economic issues. In September 2009, G20 heads of state responded to this need at the Pittsburgh G20 Summit with the “Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth” (the Framework). The MAP was created to both monitor and support G20 countries in their follow- through on commitments made under the Framework.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis

80. From Bretton Woods to the Euro: How Policy-Maker Overreach Fosters Economic Crises

Author:
Pierre Siklos
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper considers the relevance of the Bretton Woods system for the prospects of reform of the international monetary system and in the context of the ongoing euro area financial crisis. It explores the challenges that must be met in attempting to reform the present international monetary system and euro area policies. After considering what resonates, and what does not, from the Bretton Woods regime of fixed exchange rates, it examines some of the key lessons from that era. The paper concludes that policy makers at Bretton Woods promised too much in terms of the stability and durability of the policy regime, and did not give sufficient thought to how the arrangement devised in the 1940s would actually function. They failed to instill the logic of collective action among their members. In particular, the Bretton Woods system failed because the agreement paid virtually no attention to governance issues. Finally, in terms of the current situation in the euro zone, policy makers have failed to recognize that the problems are not purely economic; domestic political considerations are important too. A political-economy approach is required for the design of new international monetary arrangements. The same principles apply today when we contemplate the survival of the euro zone. Politicians need to be more realistic and less ambitious, lest they create the preconditions for the next global crisis.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe