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11. National Commitments, Compliance and the Future of the Kyoto Protocol

Author:
Noriko Fujiwara and Diarmuid Torney
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Among the many unresolved issues on the agenda of the forthcoming UN climate change negotiations in Cancun is the issue of what will happen to the Kyoto Protocol, since at present, there will be no targets for greenhouse (GHG) emissions from developed countries under the Protocol beyond 2012. To illuminate this aspect of the Protocol, this Policy Brief looks closer at the nature of the commitments and the compliance regime under the Kyoto Protocol. We argue that the compliance regime of the Protocol is not as robust as many of the Protocol's supporters might think. The precise legal form of the commitments in the climate regime may have little impact on whether countries actually achieve their targets. Instead, we argue, negotiators should focus on agreeing a framework of commitments that are credible and enforceable, rather than focus excessively on the legal form of those commitments.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations

12. The Bosnian Hiatus: A Story of Misinterpretations

Author:
Goran Tirak
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Bosnia and Herzegovina (hereinafter: Bosnia or BiH) has often been described as a failed state, but in reality it is actually not that far behind other Western Balkan countries that have aspirations to join the EU. Due to recent developments, however, there is a danger that this gap will widen.
Topic:
Civil War, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

13. The Case for a Gas Transit Consortium in Ukraine: A Cost-Benefit Analysis

Author:
Michael Emerson and Elena Gnedina
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The 2009 gas dispute between Ukraine and Russia has led to a severe drop in Russian gas supplies to some EU member states. The dispute has once again shown that the status quo is defective and unsustainable as a policy. This Policy Brief argues that – beyond ad hoc temporary measures, such as the monitoring by EU experts agreed on January 12th and the 2009-10 price agreement apparently reached on January 18th – the problem needs a comprehensive and robust solution. This would be a gas transit consortium, bringing all major stakeholders – Gazprom, Naftohaz, one or a few European energy companies, and the international financial institutions – to jointly manage the trans-Ukrainian trunk pipeline. The consortium agreement would be underwritten politic ally and legally by a tripartite treaty to be ratified by the EU, Russia and Ukraine. The consortium should be bound by European standards of transparency, corporate governance and accounting in order to tackle the major problem – the lack of trust – in the EU- Ukraine-Russia energy triangle.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

14. Understanding Klaus: The Story of Czech Eurorealism

Author:
Mats Braun
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
It is somewhat ironic that Czech eurosceptics managed to delay the ratification process of the Lisbon Treaty at a time when they seem to be in decline as a political force. President Klaus and his allies are becoming increasingly isolated within Czech political circles and lack the support of any established political party other than the Communists. The twin pressures of domestic vote utilisation and socialisation at the EU level are making Czech eurorealists within the Civic Democratic Party less eurosceptic. It is still too early to speak of any complete change within the party, however, and any evidence of a reorientation of the party's EU policy remains ambiguous.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Lisbon

15. The Treaty of Lisbon and the Czech Constitutional Court: Act II

Author:
Ivo Slosarcik
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
In October 2009, the lion's share of media and political attention given to the ratification process of the Lisbon Treaty in the Czech Republic has been devoted to the antics of the President, Václav Klaus. However, it is important to point out that the process is being delayed not only by the President's reservations and requests for a Czech (quasi)opt-out from the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, but also by the pending review of the Treaty by the Czech Constitutional Court (CCC), which is set to give a second ruling on the Lisbon Treaty on November 3 rd, having delivered its first decision in autumn 2008.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

16. Central Asia's growing partnership with China

Author:
Sébastien Peyrouse
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Since the start of the 2000s, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has become an increasingly important player on the Central Asian scene, which until then had been essentially divided between Russia and the US. Today, Central Asia's future lies in its ability to avoid the destabilisations of the Afghan–Pakistan zone, and through Chinese influence, to partake of the Asia–Pacific's economic prosperity. In less than two decades, Beijing has managed to make a massive and multiform entry onto the Central Asian scene: it has proven itself a loyal partner on the level of bilateral diplomacy and has succeeded in turning the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) into a regional structure appreciated by its members. China has also become a leading actor in trade as well as in the hydrocarbon sector and infrastructure. In examining the shift that China has generated in Central Asian realities, this paper focuses on the political and geopolitical impact of Beijing's growing influence, along with the economic implications of the Chinese presence in Central Asia. To what extent will this affect the objectives of the European Union? China is one of the EU's economic competitors in domains such as energy; it obstructs cooperation between Central Asian states and Western countries, and it encourages the authoritarian tendencies of political regimes. Yet, partnership and economic competition go hand in hand, as EU texts recognise. In addition, the EU's rationale for setting up in Central Asia is not to compete with neighbouring states, but instead to seek cooperation in accordance with the idea that a multiplicity of actors will guarantee the zone's stability and its geopolitical balance. So what joint interest might China and the EU have in Central Asia? On a certain number of questions such as security and long-term development, the EU and China share the same concerns and Beijing is seeking greater collaboration with Europe.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Central Asia

17. Towards the Next Phase of the EU's Area of Freedom, Security and Justice: The EC's Proposals for the Stockholm Programme

Author:
Sergio Carrera and Elspeth Guild
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The European Union needs a new five-year strategy for the development of the next phase of the Area of Freedom, Security and Justice (AFSJ). The existing plan, designed in The Hague Programme of 2004, expires at the end of this year. The Justice and Home Affairs research unit of CEPS has already set out, in several contributions, the big issues and provided policy recommendations for the next five-year plan – The Stockholm Programme – which will be adopted under the Swedish Presidency in December. In June 2009, the European Commission published its perspective towards the Stockholm process in its Communication: “An area of Freedom, Security and Justice serving the citizen: Wider freedom in a safer environment”.3 In this Policy Brief, we take a closer look at the Commission's Communication and highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the approaches adopted for each of the different policy domains falling under the AFSJ rubric. The Communication assesses the AFSJ under three main headings: 1. successes, 2. ambivalent areas and 3. challenges. We will also follow these headings and comment accordingly. Our commentary on the three areas also provides answers to some of the thorny questions raised in the priorities for the Stockholm Programme. We spell these out in the conclusions and put forth a set of policy recommendations.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

18. The Evolution of Flexible Integration in European Defence Policy: Is permanent structured cooperation a leap forward for the Common Security and Defence Policy?

Author:
Willem F. van Eekelen and Sebastian Kurpas
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The Treaty of Lisbon contains several options for creating some degree of flexibility in the defence domain under the assumption that it will be difficult, and not always necessary, to do everything at 27: constructive abstention, the possibility of mandating a smaller group or for the most demanding missions 'permanent structured cooperation in defence' (PSCD). It is not yet clear, however, how the possession of larger military capabilities and how the will to enter into more binding commitments will be elaborated. This paper traces the debate on flexibility in the area of security and defence and addresses, in particular, PSCD and its potential application.
Topic:
Security and Treaties and Agreements

19. What next? How to save the Treaty of Lisbon

Author:
Daniel Gros and Sebastian Kurpas
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
In the wake of the Irish no-vote on the Treaty of Lisbon, numerous scenarios are currently being debated. This paper critically assesses the legality and political feasibility of the principal proposals and then puts forward an alternative 'Plan B', which we believe would amply satisfy both criteria.
Topic:
International Organization, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Lisbon

20. Ireland and the Lisbon Treaty: Quo Vadis?

Author:
John O'Brennan
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The rejection of the Lisbon Treaty by the electorate on 12 June 2008 has presented the Irish government with the most serious crisis in external relations since the Second World War. This was the third such referendum on Europe held in Ireland since the millennium and the second plebiscite in three to result in a rejection of an EU Treaty following the failed Nice poll in 2001. There is no obvious solution to the dilemma the government faces and no obvious pathway to achieve ratification. There is however a clear consensus amongst the political parties that ratification constitutes both a clear political priority and a fundamental national interest. At the October European Council summit in Brussels, Taoiseach Brian Cowen promised to come back to the December meeting “with a view to our defining together the elements of a solution and a common path to follow”. But the external context is now clear – EU leaders indicated an unwillingness to re-negotiate any part of the Treaty: it will be up to Ireland to find an Irish solution to this European problem. Thus the opportunity cost of the No vote has become somewhat clearer: Ireland faces marginalisation and isolation in Europe if a solution to the Lisbon dilemma is not found. The domestic context is also somewhat clearer now that we have access to extensive data that sheds light on the reasons for the No vote in the 12 June poll. In assessing the options for ratification this paper draws upon that data, presented in among other sources, the post-referendum Eurobarometer survey and the government-commissioned Millward Brown IMS research findings.
Topic:
Government, International Organization, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, Lisbon, and Ireland