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Begin New Search Political Geography Germany Publishing Institution Centre for European Policy Studies

1. The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure and Germany: When is a current account surplus an 'imbalance'?

Author:
Daniel Gros and Matthias Busse
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) was designed to prevent the emergence of imbalances like the large and persistent current account deficits that occurred in Spain and Ireland. But within this mechanism, a current account surplus is also viewed as a source of concern. Indeed, last year's Alert Mechanism Report (AMR), issued by the European Commission signalled an excessive current account surplus for the Netherlands and Luxembourg, while Germany just barely scraped by with a 5.9% surplus, marginally evading the 6% threshold (over a 3-year average). With the most recent report, however, Germany's status has changed. Along with the Netherlands and Luxembourg, it too has now been singled out as a euro-area country with a surplus above the upper threshold.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

2. What Germany should fear most is its own fear: An analysis of Target2 and current account imbalances

Author:
Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyzes two claims that have been made about the Target2 payment system. The first one is that this system has been used to support unsustainable current account deficits of Southern European countries. The second one is that the large accumulation of Target2 claims by the Bundesbank represents an unacceptable risk for Germany if the eurozone were to break up. We argue that these claims are unfounded. They also lead to unnecessary fears in Germany that make a solution of the eurozone crisis more difficult. Ultimately, this fear increases the risk of a break-up of the eurozone. Or to paraphrase Franklin Roosevelt, what Germany should fear most is simply its own fear.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

3. In Search of Symmetry in the Eurozone

Author:
Paul De Grauwe
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
One of the major problems of the eurozone is the divergence of the competitive positions that have built up since the early 2000s. This divergence has led to major imbalances in the eurozone where the countries that have seen their competitive positions deteriorate (mainly the so - called ' PIIGS ' – Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain ) have accumulated large current account deficits and thus external indebtedness, matched by current account surpluses of the countries that have improved their competitive positions (mainly Germany).
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Regional Cooperation, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland

4. An Agenda for the European Council: Feasible steps to bring the eurozone back from the precipice

Author:
Stefano Micossi
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Once again the European Council will meet in an emergency session at the end of June, with the eurozone economy in recession and actually plummeting in its Southern periphery. Further doubts are also growing on the sustainability of sovereign debts due to the vicious spiral of deteriorating bank balance sheets, ballooning potential liabilities from banking rescues and widening spreads on government borrowings. The sovereign debt crisis in the periphery has now turned into a fully fledged banking crisis that threatens to spread from Greece to Spain and tomorrow, who knows, to Italy, France and even Germany itself.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy

5. A Sovereign Wealth Fund to Lift Germany's Curse of Excess Savings

Author:
Daniel Gros and Thomas Mayer
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
For most of the time since the early 1950s, national savings in Germany have tended to exceed national investment, resulting in a current account surplus. Most of these excess savings have been intermediated by the domestic banking system, which has had difficulties investing these German surpluses abroad given that it is prohibited by law from taking any exchange rate risk. This tended to keep the surplus within limits most of the time (less than 1- 2% of GDP). With the advent of the euro, however, German surpluses could become much larger and seem now to have become structurally engrained at 6% of GDP, or over one-quarter of savings. Since the start of the euro crisis, German private savers have repatriated their investments – effectively unloading their exposure onto the public sector as German banks have deposited hundreds of billions of euro at the Bundesbank. These funds are being lent by the ECB to banks in the euro area periphery (at 75 bps) – ensuring effectively a negative real return.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Sovereign Wealth Funds
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

6. On the Tasks of the European Stability Mechanism

Author:
Stefano Micossi, Fabrizia Peirce, and Jacopo Carmassi
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
In recent weeks pressures on the euro and eurozone sovereign debtors have subsided. Buoyant growth in the global economy, increasingly benefiting also the European economy, has of course played an important role in calming financial markets. But even more important has been the perception that France and Germany are again working constructively for a strong economic Europe. More broadly, the acute turbulence in financial markets since the spring of 2010 may have finally convinced our political leaders, notably including the German political establishment, that the benefits of a stable currency far outweigh the costs that may have to be borne to make it work properly. The euro will only be trusted if the member states effectively coordinate their economic policies not only to ensure fiscal stability, but also to eliminate persistent divergences in productivity leading to unsustainable imbalances between national savings and investment (Schäuble, 2011).
Topic:
Security, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe, France, and Germany

7. Do Germans support the euro?

Author:
Daniel Gros and Felix Roth
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper analyses public support for the euro in Germany. Drawing from the results of regular Eurobarometer surveys, it finds that the ongoing financial and sovereign debt crisis has reduced support for the euro among German citizens, but not dramatically so – at least not yet. In the 1990s, the German public was sceptical towards the euro. But since the introduction of euro banknotes and coins, a clear majority of citizens supports the euro – despite the financial and sovereign debt crisis. Moreover, on average, support for the euro is at a similar level in Germany as it is elsewhere in the euro area.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

8. Agreement needed on liquidity provision to restore confidence in the eurozone

Author:
Stefano Micossi
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Some eighteen months after the first Greek rescue (May 2010), there is little doubt that the multiple attempts at crisis management in the eurozone have failed to restore confidence. Indeed, following each round of emergency measures agreed by the eurozone summits, matters have turned for the worse (see Figure 1 for the widening spreads, over the German Bund, for sovereign borrowing in the eurozone). At the time of writing, contagion has spread beyond Spain and Italy to the core sovereigns, with France close to losing its triple A rating and even Germany experiencing partial failure in a Bund auction on November 23rd. Spreads are also opening up for Austria, Belgium, Finland and even the virtuous Netherlands. Meanwhile, the banking system Europe- wide is under increasing strain, with term funding all but closed for any bank with significant exposure to distressed sovereign debtors and the interbank market close to seizing up. Deposit withdrawals have surfaced in a number of large banks from the periphery. The euro has started to weaken in foreign exchange markets, narrowing the room for a distinction between eurozone debt crisis and euro-currency crisis from which some observers were until recently drawing comfort.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

9. From Lisbon to Deauville: Practicalities of the Lisbon Treaty Revision(s)

Author:
Piotr Maciej Kaczyński and Peadar ó Broin
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
It has only been one year since the Treaty of Lisbon entered into force and already there is a stack of pending issues requiring primary law change in the EU. The Franco-German Deauville Declaration of 18 October 2010 is probably the most politically prominent of them all, yet it is not the first, nor will it be the last in a long, incremental process of constant treaty revision similar to the national process of amending national constitutions. All of these proposals have one feature in common: none of them is an overarching treaty change and each one is designed in such a way that amends only one element of the system. This, in theory, should avoid the need to submit the change to public referenda in the EU as part of the ratification process.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements and Law
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Lisbon

10. The Key Role of Education in the Europe 2020 Strategy

Author:
Felix Roth and Anna-Elisabeth Thum
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The EU 2020 Agenda has taken an important step forward by setting the target for tertiary graduation rates at an ambitious 40%. This paper finds that many European countries, however, including the largest economy – Germany – will not be able to meet this target. Moreover, the crucial topic of educational quality is not even touched upon. Comparing the EU with China in total numbers, the authors find that China's education system already produces the same number of graduates with tertiary education as the whole EU15. Given the large output of graduates, which is the key to productive spending on R, this means that China is likely to soon become a growing power in innovation. Initially the country is expected to concentrate on incremental innovation, with radical innovation to come only later and it is here, the authors warn, that the quality of the university system might represent a major obstacle in the Chinese government's efforts to close the gap with the US and the EU15 in terms of innovation potential.
Topic:
Education
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Germany