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431. Missile Defence and European Security

Author:
François Heisbourg, Klaus Becher, Alexander Pikayev, and Ivo H. Daalder
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
European NATO countries have been spectators to the debate about defending the US against ballistic missile attacks. While there have been national differences in Europe's reactions to the national missile defence (NMD) programme, it is obvious that most Europeans don't like it. The French seem somewhat more convinced than others that missile defence is inherently foolish and unworkable. Some British experts seem to insist more than others that any programme that might undermine NATO's nuclear deterrence and strategic unity should be avoided. And perhaps Germans, more than others, worry about perceived dangers to the ABM and other arms control treaties, and generally about relations with Russia. Most Europeans at present believe that US defence against long-range ballistic missiles is a slap in the face for Russia, a dangerous provocation for China and an inadequate response to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and missile technology.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Germany

432. Foreign Direct Investment and Company Taxation in Europe

Author:
Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Lionel Fontagné, and Amina Lahrèche-Révil
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The growing globalisation of OECD economies, associated to the progresses in European integration, tends to increase the mobility of capital and to deepen the pressure on tax policies. On the one hand, tax policies are tied by the Stability Pact criteria: the limit imposed on budget deficits leaves little scope for tax rates to decrease. On the other hand, the growing mobility of capital tends to increase the elasticity of tax bases to tax rates, hence reducing the autonomy of governments in increasing taxes.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

433. Some Paradigms for the Evolving Map of Europe

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Two sets of opposing paradigms governing the map of Europe are struggling to predominate at the beginning of this second decade of the post-communist era. At the macro (continental) level the struggle is between the Common European Home versus the Europe of Two Empires–the enlarging European Union, and a Russia newly re-assertive towards its near abroad. At the micro (state or entity) level the struggle is between the Nationalising State versus the Europe of Fuzzy Statehood. This double competition of paradigms is most intense and sensitive in Borderland Europe around the frontiers between the two empires, or in their Overlapping Peripheries. It seems that the Europe of Two Empires has much more political energy these days than the Common European Home; and in Borderland Europe the Nationalising State has more energy than Fuzzy Statehood. However these trends should be of concern, since they point to the persistence of tensions and in the worst cases conflicts. A successful and stable Europe would need to see more of the Common European Home and of Fuzzy Statehood.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

434. Economic Integration Between the EU and the CEECS: A Sectoral Study

Author:
Francesca di Mauro
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Economic integration between the EU and the CEECs has proceeded at high speed over the 90's, with the main channels of such integration being trade and FDI. Some authors believe that the 'commercial transition' is now complete and that a new, deeper phase of integration has started, with growing flows of FDI in the region. Following a gravity-type approach, in this paper I tackle two difficult issues surrounding the EU-CEECs integration: has FDI in the CEECs region substituted EU exports, therefore harming employment at home? Has FDI in the CEECs region been redirected away from similarly attractive countries, such as Spain and Portugal? By using a unique database on FDI broken down by country and by sector, which allows more detailed qualifications than possible in previous work, the answers to these two questions appear to be negative.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Spain, and Portugal

435. Who Needs an Extenal Anchor?

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper argues that there might be non-monotonic relationship between the strength of the domestic framework for fiscal policy and the interest of a country to use an external anchor to achieve price stability. Countries with a strong domestic framework, e.g. low public debt, little pressure for excessive expenditure and an efficient tax system, would anyway enjoy low inflation rates and therefore have little need for an external anchor. Countries with high debt or very weak institutions would greatly benefit from an external anchor to save them from the extreme inflation rates they would otherwise have to endure because the market knows that the temptation for them to inflate public debt away is so strong. By contrast, countries with moderately weaknesses might be in a situation where they need some inflation to supplement government revenues with seigniorage, but the inflation resulting from the interaction with the market, which knows about this, is still moderate.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

436. What's Trade Got To Do With It? Relative Demand for Skills within Swedish Manufacturing

Author:
Paul Brenton, Bob Anderton, and Eva Oscarsson
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper seeks to identify the contribution of trade and technological change to the increase in inequality between skilled and unskilled workers in Sweden since the 1970s. An empirical approach is adopted which allows for the outsourcing of the low-skill parts of the production chain within industries to low-wage locations and is applied to detailed industry and trade data, the latter distinguishing between low-wage sources of imports and OECD countries. Another feature of the study is the use of data on patents to capture technological change. The paper finds that, in contrast to previous studies, trade with low-wage countries may have contributed to the rise in inequality in Swedish manufacturing. Here we identify this effect through changes in relative import prices and through changes in import penetration measured in volume terms. Changes in import penetration measured in value terms, which have been used in previous studies, are not found to be significant. In addition imports seem to have had a larger effect on inequality in high-skill intensive sectors rather than the low-skill sectors. The empirical results also suggest that the increased use of technology also played a role in creating greater inequality between skilled and unskilled workers in Sweden with the magnitude of this impact increasing in the 1990s.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Sweden

437. Skill Upgrading and Production Transfer within Swedish Multinationals in the 1990s

Author:
Pär Hansson
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This paper studies the link between production transfer in Swedish-headquartered multinational enterprises (MNEs) and skill upgrading in Swedish manufacturing in the 1990s. The analysis distinguishes between horizontal and vertical foreign direct investment (FDI). The increased employment share in affiliates in non-OECD countries (vertical FDI) has a non-trivial, significantly positive effect on the share of skilled labour in the Swedish parents. On the other hand, the skill upgrading in the parents is unrelated to employment changes in their affiliates in other OECD countries (horizontal FDI). The latter is consistent with implications of the newly developed horizontal MNE models.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Sweden

438. Just Good Friends? The EU-Russian "Strategic Partnership" and the Northern Dimension

Author:
Marius Vahl
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Contrary to official claims, Russia and the European Union are not strategic partners. The economic and political asymmetries between them and the still divergent normative foundations on which their policies are based constitute considerable obstacles to strategically significant co-operation between the EU and Russia. These obstacles are likely to persist in the foreseeable future, and prevent the emergence of a real strategic partnership.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

439. European Labour Markets and the Euro: How Much Flexibility Do We Really Need?

Author:
Michael C. Burda
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Widespread concern over real effects of EMU is consistent with new Keynesian approaches to macroeconomic fluctuations, but more difficult to reconcile with a real business cycle (RBC) paradigm. Using a model with frictions as a point of departure, I speculate that nominal price rigidity in Europe is likely to increase, while real rigidities are likely to decrease, as a consequence of monetary union. This logic implies a new European macroeconomic regime in which monetary policy is increasingly "effective" in influencing output in the short run. Similarly, changes in the nature of real and nominal price determination are likely to increase the volatility of the European business cycle. Empirical evidence of increasing covariation of price inflation and declining correlation of wage inflation and real wage growth within EMU countries in the last decade is consistent with this conjecture. Calls for additional labour market flexibility, given the magnitude of what is already in store for Europe, may be unwarranted.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

440. The Future of Montenegro: Proceedings of an Expert Meeting

Author:
Nicholas Whyte
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Mr. Emerson, Ladies and Gentlemen, Distinguished Friends of Montenegro, Let me start with my thanks to the Centre for European Policy Studies, the International Crisis Group and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation for organising this conference. The presentations of international and local experts will make a contribution to our consideration of the future of Montenegro. I find it especially important that this debate allows for a wide diversity of political views on the subject of Montenegro's future.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Europe