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341. WTO Agricultural Negotiations: A Comparison of the Harbinson Proposal and the Swiss Formula

Author:
Martina Brockmeier, Marianne Kurzweil, Janine Pelikan, and Petra Salamon
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The WTO agricultural negotiations of the Doha round are a key issue in the public debate. This paper analyses the effects of different options to improve market-access on the basis of a GTAP model, comparing the impact of the Harbinson proposal and the Swiss formula on trade balances. An extended version of the GTAP model is used to first project a base run that includes factors arising from Agenda 2000, EU enlargement, the EBA agreement and the EU's mid-term review. The policy simulation run additionally includes the WTO negotiations. Here, the model is differentiated between three experiments. While the first experiment simply implements the Harbinson proposal, the second one additionally takes into account an adoption of the EBA agreement by all industrialised countries. In the third experiment, the tariff cuts are based on the Swiss formula using a coefficient of 33 instead of the tiered approach of the Harbinson proposal.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

342. Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area

Author:
Ville Kaitila
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
This working paper analyses conditional convergence in Europe and also tries to assess the impact that arises from integration. Using a pooled mean-group estimation method, we first analyse the conditional convergence of GDP per labour force in the area covering the 15 member states of the European Union (EU-15) in 1960-2002. Conditional convergence is well-documented for the EU- 15. Higher investment, lower public consumption and lower inflation have contributed positively to GDP growth. Deeper European integration is shown to have accelerated growth when inflation is not included in the specification, but not otherwise. The evidence on the effect of integration on growth is therefore mixed. We then apply the same method to estimate the growth of GDP per labour force in the new EU member states – the eight Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) – for the period 1993-2002. These countries are shown to have converged conditionally towards the average level of GDP per labour force in the EU-15. Higher investment and lower public consumption have also supported growth in the CEECs.
Topic:
International Relations and Development
Political Geography:
Europe

343. Scenarios for Modelling Trade Policy Effects on the Multifunctionality of European Agriculture

Author:
Jerzy Wilkin, Janet Dwyer, David Baldock, Hervé Guyomard, and Dorota Klepacka
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The ENARPRI partners agreed in February 2004 to prepare a precise specification for the scenarios that partners would attempt to model in their own national contexts, to examine the impacts of trade-related changes upon the multifunctionality of EU agriculture. This paper outlines a suite of five scenarios covering anticipated domestic (EU) policy under different possible outcomes from the Doha round, broadly based upon the status quo (with mid-term review), full decoupling of domestic support and full decoupling plus reductions in (decoupled) domestic support, with variants in relation to export subsidies and the scale of pillar 2 measures. In all cases it is recognised that national or sub-national models will require an additional level of national or regional specification before they can be run, and that each national team will be required to do this drawing upon their own domestic knowledge and discussion with relevant experts. Each of the models that will be used to undertake these analyses is then briefly reviewed to identify its general approach and the multifunctionality indicators that can be covered. These indicators are then set in the broader context that considers other potential indicators of multifunctionality and their rationales. The paper concludes with some additional commentary about the significant differences, and thus the difficulties, of attempting to undertake this exercise for any of the new member states.
Topic:
International Relations and Agriculture
Political Geography:
Europe

344. Multilateral Market-Access Reforms of the Doha Round: A Preliminary Assessment of Implications for EU Agricultural Trade

Author:
Wusheng Yu and Hans G. Jensen
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The July package of the Doha Round of trade negotiations stipulates that a tiered-formula approach should be used to significantly reduce market access barriers across countries, implying that the EU would have to make larger cuts to its high external tariffs, in comparison with many other WTO members such as the US. This paper provides a preliminary assessment of the likely impact of the tiered-formula reform approach on EU agricultural sectors. Numerical simulations of a multilateral market-access reform scenario show that such cuts would lead to across-the-board decreases in intra-EU trade flows, as compared with a baseline projection. While intra-EU trade flows would decrease, the EU's trade with the rest of the world would increase. Yet such increases would not be symmetric – imports into the EU would increase more than exports, resulting in larger external trade deficits or smaller external trade surpluses in many EU agricultural products. Further, the resulting adjustments in member states' production and net trade positions are not equal: the new member states would generally lose part of their export shares in the EU market to external competitors, as highlighted in the cases of bovine meat and dairy products.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

345. What Prospects for the European Constitutional Treaty? - Monitoring the Ratification Debates

Author:
Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, and Justus Schönlau
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Following the success of the EPIN survey on the European elections 2004 (EPIN Working Paper No. 11), the authors decided to use a similar approach for monitoring the current ratification process of the European Constitutional Treaty. Accordingly, the findings presented in this paper are based on the results of a survey conducted among national experts associated with the European Policy Institutes Network (EPIN). As such, they are inherently subjective, but nevertheless wellinformed. The report draws on survey data collected in 20 EU member states, supplemented by additional sources of information on the remaining countries where available. While the actual outcomes may prove our findings wrong in one respect or another, they do indicate interesting developments and differences in the respective member states. The added value of this EPIN survey lies in its broad comparative scope and analysis rather than its offering an in-depth assessment of each national debate. (For the latter, special country reports are envisaged at a later point in time.) The EPIN Ratification Monitor project plans to publish regular updates on the rapidly changing situation.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

346. A European Balkans?

Author:
Daniel Serwer, Jacques Rupnik, and Boris Shmelev
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The Chairman recalled the reasons for holding this particular session. On the one hand, at the Thessaloniki meeting of the European Council (June 2003), the prospect was laid out of the Balkans being included, over time, within the European Union; hence, the title of the session. How that vision is to be fulfilled is obviously very much open to question, which is indeed one of reasons underlying the work of the new International Commission on the Balkans chaired by former Italian Prime Minister Giuliano Amato. On the other hand, short-term events are going to put the Balkans at the centre of European concerns over the coming months in the run-up to the final status discussions in mid-2005: the Macedonian referendum in early November, the deployment of European Union forces in Bosnia-Herzegovina (operation Altea) in December and the rising expectations of Kosovar Albanians following the October 2004 elections. To introduce the session three papers were presented.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Macedonia

347. Measuring the Economic Impact of an EU–GCC Free Trade Agreement

Author:
David Kernohan and Dean A. DeRosa
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Economic growth rates in the Gulf region have languished in recent years and need to be raised to accommodate the rapidly growing populations and social aspirations of the region. Using a simple model of world trade, this report investigates the economic impacts of the new customs union of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between the GCC and European Union. The quantitative results suggest that the new customs union and proposed EU-GCC free trade agreement both appreciably expand trade and improve economic welfare in the GCC countries, with little significant economic impact on the EU. As expected, the FTA results in larger GCC economic gains than the customs union because it affords GCC consumers greater opportunity to enjoy imports at internationally competitive prices. Although welfare gains under the proposed FTA closely approximate those under open regionalism (concerted trade liberalisation on a most favoured nation basis), reducing the 5% GCC common external tariff to about 3% as part of the FTA negotiations would not only ensure near-maximum trade performance and welfare gains but also add further to the attractiveness of the GCC countries as a location for foreign direct investment.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Treaties and Agreements, and Population
Political Geography:
Europe

348. Why Is There a Productivity Problem in the EU?

Author:
Francesco Daveri
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Magazines and newspapers often refer to or even take for granted the economic decline of the EU, particularly when contrasting the EU data with US data. The first part of this paper poses the question of whether IT – as often alleged – is really the only cause for the EU's productivity slowdown. The conclusion is that it is not. The non-IT part of the economy has not only contributed to the slowdown but appears to have crucially contributed to the EU-US growth gap as well. There is thus little reason for the EU to target IT-diffusion as an intermediate goal, as implied by the Lisbon strategy. The second part of the paper, after showing that the growth slowdown comes from the reduction of non-IT capital deepening and the lack of acceleration in total factor productivity growth, argues that the slowdown of capital deepening will continue. The scarce resources available for enhancing growth should concentrate on providing incentives to R and innovation at large, rather than financing traditional infrastructures. This is at odds with the goals pursued by the EU within the framework of the European Growth Initiative.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe

349. The Impact of Unemployment on Individual Well-Being in the EU

Author:
Namkee Ahn, Juan Ramón García, and Juan Francisco Jimeno
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Among the working-age population, one of the most damaging individual experiences is unemployment. Many previous studies have confirmed the devastating effects of unemployment on individual well-being, both pecuniary and non-pecuniary. Using the data from the European Community Household Panel survey, we examine the factors that affect unemployed workers' well-being with respect to their situations in their main vocational activity, income, housing, leisure time and health in Europe.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe

350. Has Trade any Importance in the Transmission of Currency Shocks?

Author:
Roberta De Santis
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The object of this study is to assess the role of trade in the transmission of currency shocks across geographically close countries. The analysis will focus on identifying and comparing the degree of vulnerability of new EU member states from the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) to currency shocks.
Topic:
International Relations and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe