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332. Iran: The Moment of Truth
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson, François Heisbourg, and Vladimir Sazhin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The definition of European policy objectives and strategies vis-à-vis Iran's nuclear ambitions must take into account the specificities of the case, setting, as it were, its problématique. First, we have the unusual situation of a basically three-way game: the EU (and notably the EU-3, comprising the UK, France and Germany), Iran and the 'significant other', the United States, which is outside of the negotiation but a key player. Any student in strategy knows that a triangle is the most unstable and tricky combination to deal with, and the presence of yet another set of outsiders (notably Russia and China) adds another element of complexity.
- Topic:
- Development and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany
333. Economic Effects of Free Trade between the EU and Russia
- Author:
- Pekka Sulamaa and Mika Widgrén
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This study simulates the economic effects of eastern enlargement of the EU and an EU-Russian free trade area. The main emphasis of the paper is on the effect this would have on the Russian economy. The simulations were carried out with a GTAP computable general equilibrium model, using the most recent GTAP database 6.0 beta, which takes the former Europe agreements between the EU-15 and the eight new Central and Eastern European member states into account. The results confirm the earlier findings that a free trade agreement with the EU is beneficial for Russia in terms of total output but not necessarily in terms of economic welfare when measured by equivalent variation. The main reason behind this is the deterioration that would occur in Russia's terms of trade. Improved productivity in Russia would, however, make the free trade agreement with the EU advantageous.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
334. Update on the Ratification Debates: What Prospects for the European Constitutional Treaty? Results of and EPIN Survey of National Experts
- Author:
- Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, Justus Schönlau, and Julia De Clerck-Sachsse
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The ratification process of the Constitutional Treaty has taken some unexpected turns, since the publication of our initial report. The situation has changed especially dramatically in France: within only 10 days the 'yes' camp slid from a previously stable figure of around 60% to below 50%. Our report had concluded that “if the reasons for a particular European compromise are not made transparent to the citizens, issues can be used in a divisive way at the national level”. It therefore called for a stronger European dimension in the national debates and expressed the hope that politicians and the media would play their role in stressing the common European significance of the European Constitution.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
335. Is the European Economy a Patient and the Union its Doctor? On Jobs and Growth in Europe
- Author:
- Sjef Ederveen, Albert van der Hoorst, and Paul Tang
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- A stronger focus on jobs and growth is part of an effort to renew the Lisbon strategy. Yet the view that economic expansion contributes to maintaining Lisbon's other goals of social cohesion as well as the environment is somewhat optimistic. First, there are structural trade-offs among the central elements of the Lisbon strategy. Escaping these trade-offs temporarily is sometimes possible but requires policy changes. Second, higher productivity (growth) may not provide more structural room for governments to manoeuvre. It leads to higher tax receipts but also to higher public expenditures since public sector wages and social security benefits are linked to productivity. In contrast, more employment (jobs) is associated with a smaller public sector. But to engineer the increase in employment, changes in welfare state arrangements are needed. In other words, focussing solely on the sick child will probably harm the other children.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Economics, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Lisbon
336. Speed of Convergence and Relocation: New EU Member Countries Catching up with the Old
- Author:
- Kari E. O. Alho, Ville Kaitili, and Mike Widgrén
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- Economic convergence of the EU's new member countries (NMCs) towards the incumbent EU countries (EU-15) is of paramount importance for both partners, not only in terms of real income but also in nominal terms. In this study we build a dynamic, computable general equilibrium model, starting from the Balassa-Samuelson two-sector framework, then modify and enlarge it (with, among other things, endogenous capital formation, consumption behaviour and labour mobility) to address several other issues such as uncertainty, welfare and sustainability in terms of foreign indebtedness. At the same time we make flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) endogenous in order to evaluate the impact convergence has on the EU-15 and the inter action between the two regions through FDI. We find that in a general equilibrium setting, fears of adverse effects resulting from a relocation of EU-15 manufacturing to the NMCs are not well founded.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Europe
337. The Rise of China with Special Reference to Arms Supplies
- Author:
- Peter Brookes, Bruno Tertrais, and Alexei D. Voskressenski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- Like the rest of the world, Europe has been fascinated by the emergence of China for a long time, and there has been an official relationship between the EU and the People's Republic of China for 30 years now. This relationship was upgraded in 1998. It now takes the form of a China-EU summit every year, the latest having taken place in December 2004. The EU became China's main trading partner in 2004, with trade between the two parties soaring to €160 billion.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation and Development
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
338. Financial Consequences of Widowhood in Europe: Cross-Country and Gender Differences
- Author:
- Namkee Ahn
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- We document in this paper the financial consequences of widowhood using both cross-section and panel data from the European Community Household Panel. The research reveals that there are large differences across countries. For example, widowed persons in Greece and Portugal have the lowest income – less than a half that of those widowed in Austria. Cross-country differences decrease somewhat if we consider household income net of housing costs, owing to the higher share of home ownership in low-income countries. Further, the income reduction upon widowhood is generally larger for widows than it is for widowers. The difference in income between the genders is largest in Denmark, Spain, Austria and Finland, where widower s enjoy an income that is more than 30% higher that of widows. The main culprit of the differences in income between widows and widowers lies in pension regulations. As today's elderly women an d those approaching old age spent their working years in an era where women worked at home, raised children and did not participate in the labour market, many depend mostly on survivorship pensions as their main source of income. Yet in most countries this kind of pension tends to be much lower than the applicable old-age pension, owing to the prevailing pension laws. Consequently, the financial situation of widows is unlikely to improve in the medium term unless pension regulations change.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Demographics, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Finland, Greece, Denmark, and Spain
339. A Gravity Model under Monopolistic Competition
- Author:
- Kari E. O. Alho
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper presents an alternative derivation of the gravity equation for foreign trade, which is explicitly based on monopolistic competition in the export markets and which is more general than previously seen in the literature. In contrast with the usual specification, our model allows for the realistic assumption of asymmetry in mutual trade flows. The model is estimated for trade in Europe, producing evidence that trade flows and barriers do indeed reveal strong asymmetry. We then carry out a simulation, based on the estimated model, of the general equilibrium effects (through trade) of the UK's possible entrance into the economic and monetary union.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
340. Impact of Public R Financing on Private R Does Financial Constraint Matter?
- Author:
- Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This study analyses how public R financing impacts companies. Our main goal is to study whether public and private R financing are substitutes or complements, and whether this impact differs between financially constrained and unconstrained companies. Our company-level panel data cover the period from 1996 to 2002. The statistical method employed in the research takes into account the possibility that receiving public support may be an endogenous factor. Our results suggest that public R financing does not crowd out privately financed R Instead, receiving a positive decision to obtain public R funds increases privately financed R Furthermore, our results suggest that this additionality effect is bigger in large firms than in small firms.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe