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322. Should ratification proceed? An Assessment of Different Options after the Failed Referenda
- Author:
- Sebastian Kurpas
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- After the resounding Dutch no-vote of 62%, ratification of the Constitutional Treaty has become even less likely than it already was after the political earthquake caused by the French referendum three days before. While the German Chancellor and the French President encourage other countries to continue with the ratification process, the British message is clear: Any attempt to proceed at this point would be pointless. British Foreign Minister Jack Straw found rather subtle words in the House of Commons to describe the situation, but other sources suggest that instead of wasting their time on a lengthy and useless exercise that would cost the EU even more support, European leaders should bury the Constitution at the upcoming European Summit on 16-17 June (or soon afterwards) and then settle for something 'more modest'.
- Topic:
- Government and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
323. Plan B
- Author:
- Richard Baldwin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The resounding French 'non' will have important consequences for French domestic politics. It may also change the way EU leaders proceed with future Treaties. But I do not believe that it will be the 'political tsunami' for the EU that many observers have predicted. Two reasons buttress this belief.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
324. The Europeanisation of the Transnistrian Conflict
- Author:
- Marius Vahl
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- To describe the Transnistrian conflict as 'frozen' is becoming less and less appropriate. Although the conflict remains unresolved, there have been a number of significant and at times dramatic developments in recent years, both in the diplomatic efforts to negotiate a settlement, and in the underlying geopolitical alignments and political and economic structures sustaining the conflict. It is argued here that these changes are primarily because of the European Union.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
325. Political Integration in Europe and America: Towards a Madisonian Model for Europe
- Author:
- Mark C. Christie
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- While integration in Europe is, in several important aspects, already more advanced than it was in America during the decades prior to the American Civil War, there are important differences that make deeper political integration comprising all members of the European Union unlikely in the near term. A smaller group of EU members, however, is likely to continue towards deeper integration, although questions of constitutional legitimacy must be confronted and resolved. European integrationists may find the federalist principles of James Madison, regarded as the father of the American Constitution, valuable both for deeper integration and wider expansion. A Madisonian federal model for Europe could prove acceptable both to many euro-federalists and euro-sceptics and thus advance the cause of European integration. Ironically, a European federal union based on Madisonian principles would be much closer to the vision of many of America's founders than the federal structure of present-day America.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
326. EU-Russia - Four Common Spaces and the Proliferation of the Fuzzy
- Author:
- Michael Emerson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- On the 10th of May the EU and Russia signed four 'roadmap' documents at summit level in Moscow, on the Common Economic Space, the Common Space of Freedom, Security and Justice, the Common Space of External Security and the Common Space on Research, Education and Culture. This was the culmination of two year's work since the May 2003 summit that decided in principle to create the four spaces as a long-term project. It was intended also to give new momentum to the relationship, after seeing that the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement of 1994 had not become a motor for anything very substantial, while the subsequent phase (in 1999) of swapping common strategy documents also led nowhere in particular.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
327. What Could be Saved from the European Constitution if Ratification Fails? The Problems with a 'Plan B'
- Author:
- Sebastian Kurpas
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The pressure is on for the defenders of the European Constitution. Although initially it seemed as if referenda would only be problematic in countries that have a reputation for a certain degree of Euroscepticism, now even France and the Netherlands look like unsafe candidates for public approval. While there is still a fair chance that a majority of the French will vote 'yes' when actually at the ballot box, there is an understandable nervousness among prointegrationists. A French 'no' would be the most serious obstacle that any one member state among those holding a referendum could create. In the likely case that other member states besides France then reject the text – possibly for entirely different or even opposing reasons – it would become extremely difficult to 'save' the Constitution in its entirety.
- Topic:
- Government, International Organization, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
328. A Citizens Compact: Reaching out to the Citizens of Europe
- Author:
- Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, Justus Schönlau, Daniel Keohane, Julia De Clerck-Sachsse, Gaëtane Ricard-Nihoul, José I. Torreblanca, Martin Koopmann, Fredrik Langdal, Ben Crum, Anna de Klauman, Anne Mette Vestergaard, and David Kràl
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- How can the deadlock after the 'no' to the European Constitutional Treaty in France and the Netherlands be overcome? What should be the aim of the 'period of reflection' that has been agreed by the European Council?
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Netherlands
329. Modelling the Effects of Trade Policy Scenarios on Multifunctionality in Greek Agriculture: A Social Accounting Matrix Approach
- Author:
- Dimitris Psaltopoulos and Eudokia Balamou
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper presents a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) model for conducting an assessment on the potential impacts of trade agreements on several multifunctionality indicators in Greek agriculture. More specifically, two SAM models were constructed, one for Greece and one for local economy of Archanes (Crete), an agriculturally dependent NUTS IV area, which has demonstrated a noticeable record in terms of the implementation of Pillar 2 policies. Along these lines, five alternative scenarios were specified with regards to anticipated EU policy reactions under different future outcomes of the Doha round negotiations. In broad terms these scenarios range from a status quo (2003 CAP reform) hypothesis to full decoupling, taking also into account the possibility of further reductions in domestic (EU) support as well as developments on Pillar 2 funding. Results suggest that under the scenarios examined, the effects of policy reform upon multifunctionality indicators are rather mixed and surely not extremely worrying. Effects of the status quo scenarios seem to be optimistic in terms of projected economy-wide output and employment at both national and regional level. On the other hand, Scenario 1(bis) generates negative results in terms of farm output and employment (for Archanes), land-use abandonment projections are marginal at the national and rather moderate at the regional level, while environmental repercussions are negative at the national level. The regional analysis has also shown that the impacts of Scenarios 2, 2b and 3 are rather worrying in terms of all categories of projections, with the exception of “Total Output”. Taking account of the specification of Scenario 3, this finding generates rather justified reservations on the “ability” of Pillar 2 policies to ameliorate for economic activity contraction caused by a decrease in Pillar 1 support in Archanes economy.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
330. Evaluating the Impact of Alternative Policy Scenarios on Multifunctionality: A Case Study of Finland
- Author:
- Heikki Lehtonen, Jussi Lankoski, and Jyrki Niemi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper provides first results of the sector-model approach to analysing the effects of alternative policy scenarios on the multifunctional role of Finnish agriculture. In terms of environmental non-commodity outputs, this study focuses on nutrient runoffs, landscape diversity and biodiversity. As regards other non-commodity outputs, the paper considers rural socio-economic viability. The results suggest that, on the whole, reform of the common agricultural policy is not likely to result in any drastic decline of agricultural production in Finland. The amount of green fallow will increase considerably when agricultural support payments are decoupled from production, and as a result the remaining cultivated agricultural land will become biologically richer. The agricultural labour force is likely to decrease substantially irrespective of agricultural policy. The study concludes that the credibility of the production economics and biological relationships of the economic model determine the validity of the results of the many indicators examined. Further, the economic logic of microeconomic simulation models provides a consistent assessment of the many aspects of multifunctionality.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Finland